2023 Stayers Hurdle

[Lobos]

Vautour being an exception, I'd imagine.

Yes! Great spot !

[Eggs]

….Dan Skelton mentioning this as a possible for Langer Dan in his stable tour (see stable tour thread).

[Benjy23]

Aye, seems the target and Skelton sounds fairly confident he'll be good enough to compete in a Grade 1 3 miler in Britain pre festival but maybe not quite good enough to win the stayers. He's probably a reasonable each way punt at 33/1. Will end up much shorter if he does win or go close in something like the Reelkeel and there's not much depth in this is there. About 80% of those above him in the market are likely non runners or at least have other targets at the festival at this stage... But Skelton's right it'd take a serious jump for him to challenge FP, assuming he turns up in the same form as the last two years.

I'd also avoid LD for the Martin Pipe, if he's going for a grade 1 campaign. Currently favourite for that. Not that the handicap markets are too lively for anyone.

[robith]

Aye, seems the target and Skelton sounds fairly confident he'll be good enough to compete in a Grade 1 3 miler in Britain pre festival but maybe not quite good enough to win the stayers. He's probably a reasonable each way punt at 33/1. Will end up much shorter if he does win or go close in something like the Reelkeel and there's not much depth in this is there. About 80% of those above him in the market are likely non runners or at least have other targets at the festival at this stage... But Skelton's right it'd take a serious jump for him to challenge FP, assuming he turns up in the same form as the last two years.

I'd also avoid LD for the Martin Pipe, if he's going for a grade 1 campaign. Currently favourite for that. Not that the handicap markets are too lively for anyone.

It is September 2030, the handicap markets appear on oddschecker, Langer Dan is early favourite for the Martin Pipe

[RoadToCheltenham]

Danny Mullins quotes on Flooring Porter - RP Members Club tonight:

"He's a grand horse 95 per cent of the time but there is always that five per cent of madness in him and I love that. I often find with horses like him when they lose the kink in themselves they lose their sparkle so I hope he keeps the madness for as long as he can. It's my job to deal with that madness. I'm the pro and I'm the one who has to get the best out of him on the day."

"It doesn't matter to me when I'm riding him and I don't really care but I thought he deserved to be favourite for the Stayers' last season. I know he had a few hiccups along the way but he had won it the year before. I really thought he proved himself in the race this year.

"I was down at Gavin's to see him recently and he looks a million dollars. He really does look great and I can't wait to get back on him."

"He certainly has every chance of doing it [winning a third Stayers Hurdle]. It's going to be difficult but there's nothing tells me he can't do it.

"It probably won't be until about January that the division starts taking shape as you never know which chasers might switch back to hurdles, like Big Buck's did."

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Danny Mullins quotes on Flooring Porter - RP Members Club tonight:

"It probably won't be until about January that the division starts taking shape as you never know which chasers might switch back to hurdles, like Big Buck's did."

Enter Bob Olinger.............

[ComplyOrDie]

Enter Bob Olinger.............

Yep, I'm hoping so

He's got the back class over hurdles to be a serious contender, providing chasing hasn't had a damaging effect on him!

[HoldenTheReins]

Yep, I'm hoping so

He's got the back class over hurdles to be a serious contender, providing chasing hasn't had a damaging effect on him!

Still get the feeling he had an injury mostly through the season they couldn't find. Maybe a wind op will help also.

[Kevloaf]

Aye, seems the target and Skelton sounds fairly confident he'll be good enough to compete in a Grade 1 3 miler in Britain pre festival but maybe not quite good enough to win the stayers. He's probably a reasonable each way punt at 33/1. Will end up much shorter if he does win or go close in something like the Reelkeel and there's not much depth in this is there. About 80% of those above him in the market are likely non runners or at least have other targets at the festival at this stage... But Skelton's right it'd take a serious jump for him to challenge FP, assuming he turns up in the same form as the last two years.

I'd also avoid LD for the Martin Pipe, if he's going for a grade 1 campaign. Currently favourite for that. Not that the handicap markets are too lively for anyone.

Not pulled the trigger myself on him yet, as no real rush .... likely to start off at 2 and a half with a 3m run after Christmas is what I was told...

[charlie]

Yep, I'm hoping so

He's got the back class over hurdles to be a serious contender, providing chasing hasn't had a damaging effect on him!

I really want to pull the trigger here but 3 things are stopping me (feel free to talk me out of them).

1) Because of his immense reputation I think Henry might be uncharacteristically stubborn and stick to fences (which I think would be a mistake).
2) Tied into the above point, once you become a stayers hurdler you don't really do anything else and I think connections will want to avoid that.
3) HDB has had 1 runner in the stayers hurdle in the last 10 years (Petit Mouchoir). I know its only recently he's gained more firepower but even still.

[Kevloaf]

I really want to pull the trigger here but 3 things are stopping me (feel free to talk me out of them).

1) Because of his immense reputation I think Henry might be uncharacteristically stubborn and stick to fences (which I think would be a mistake).
2) Tied into the above point, once you become a stayers hurdler you don't really do anything else and I think connections will want to avoid that.
3) HDB has had 1 runner in the stayers hurdle in the last 10 years (Petit Mouchoir). I know its only recently he's gained more firepower but even still.

Surprised at point 3!

That'd put me off.... more likely to run in the Ryanair earlier than the Stayers Hurdle

[charlie]

Surprised at point 3!

That'd put me off.... more likely to run in the Ryanair earlier than the Stayers Hurdle

I couldn't believe it. Had to double check. It's enough to put me off too.

[Guinness Village]

Beyond the first 2 in the market, it all looks a bit sparse. I’m hoping zanahiyr gets pointed here. Might be an improver over this trip with another year on his back.

[ComplyOrDie]

I really want to pull the trigger here but 3 things are stopping me (feel free to talk me out of them).

1) Because of his immense reputation I think Henry might be uncharacteristically stubborn and stick to fences (which I think would be a mistake).
2) Tied into the above point, once you become a stayers hurdler you don't really do anything else and I think connections will want to avoid that.
3) HDB has had 1 runner in the stayers hurdle in the last 10 years (Petit Mouchoir). I know its only recently he's gained more firepower but even still.

1. I think we agree that if he sticks to fences it's the wrong decision. You'd hope he'd have the the horses welfare in mind and know he hasn't taken to fences all that well, really.

2. If he goes back over hurdles and manages to beat Flooring Porter, he has the potential to back it up the following season and end up a dual G1 winning Cheltenham Festival champion. Can't imagine connections will mind, given the army they have at their disposal for other areas in the game.

3. We'd have avoided HdB and Bob in the Ballymore if we had let stats alone do the talking. Previous 10 years running of the race Henry hadn't managed closer than 8th in the race. Good job we didn't let that put us off Think it all comes down to ammunition, and Henry has a huge amount now in comparison to years gone by.


I, for one, await the stable tour with bated breath, and hope they choose the right path for Bob. Clearly chasing isn't his bag, but that doesn't mean he's not a seriously talented hurdler with an engine to boot. Not many horses his age currently in the Stayers market have his back class/form.

[DenmanSacre]

Do we think there's any chance Nicolle brings Hermes Baie over?