2023 Champion Chase

[Spectre]

It's funny, of I was asked to back one or the other for the Champion Chase right now I'd rather back Shishkin at 4/1. The risk is factored into his price, and if he's over it and back to his best, which Henderson seems to think he will be, then it's a very real possibility he's the Champion Chase winner. Henderson has plenty of previous too as we all know.

On the other hand, in my opinion it would take a several horses to be injured or have a problem for Edwardstone to win the Champion Chase. Not impossible as the race itself has recent history of that happening. It's also in the back of my mind that we might not even get a run for our money and he could end up in the Ryanair. It was mentioned as possibility by Alan King I believe.

Despite having said all that, I do have both backed for my book, and I think both are fair enough antepost bets to make at the respective prices.

[Kevloaf]

My first actions in this race have been Edwardstone and Gentleman De Mee each way... I think they're two of very few prices that jumped out at me across all the races.

I think Edwardstone was never really given the credit for his season, and whilst you'd assume Energumene is comfortably ahead of GDM, an injury or poor perforamnce to just one of Shishkin or Energumene at any point gives you a really solid looking stab at getting a fav beat...


That said, number 1 hope for the season is Shishkin looks imperious in the UK, Energumene mops up in Ireland and we have the QMCC clash we all hoped for....

Or they just run against each other a few times again, which is pie-in-the-sky stuff now...

[BigChaang]

My first actions in this race have been Edwardstone and Gentleman De Mee each way... I think they're two of very few prices that jumped out at me across all the races.

I think Edwardstone was never really given the credit for his season, and whilst you'd assume Energumene is comfortably ahead of GDM, an injury or poor perforamnce to just one of Shishkin or Energumene at any point gives you a really solid looking stab at getting a fav beat...


That said, number 1 hope for the season is Shishkin looks imperious in the UK, Energumene mops up in Ireland and we have the QMCC clash we all hoped for....

Or they just run against each other a few times again, which is pie-in-the-sky stuff now...

Funambule Sivola , who came second to Shishkin .in the Maghull nov chase at Aintrree in 2021.
And obviously was Second to Energumene this year .
I need to rewatch the race , did the conditions favour F.S.this time ??. Has won on good.
Available @ 40-1. B365. surely worth a Look.. ..

[charlie]

Funambule Sivola , who came second to Shishkin .in the Maghull nov chase at Aintrree in 2021.
And obviously was Second to Energumene this year .
I need to rewatch the race , did the conditions favour F.S.this time ??. Has won on good.
Available @ 40-1. B365. surely worth a Look.. ..

I think bets like this can add up and obliterate a P&L if not careful. To clarify, when I say 'like this' I mean horses we know deep down aren't going to be good enough but the price tempts us into making the case that they are. He'd probably be a similar-ish price on the day as last year wouldn't he? Yes, he was second last year at 40/1 but the race completely fell apart and I don't think the ground disadvantaged him having seen him win on soft before. Second to Shishkin in 2021 feels like cherry picking the form - beating The Big Bite 1L, First Flow 4L and Sceau Royal 2L feels like a more accurate reflection of his level. Thats obv not bad at all and I am being tough on him, but it's not going to put him anywhere near Energumene and he'd need to improve loads. He's not unexposed either having seen him race 20+ times so would he improve lots? I don't think so. An on form Shishkin would beat him just as easily as Energumene if near his best, then I'm sure there are better novices coming through too. It's a bet that could look ok if there are lots of injuries and the field completely falls apart as it has in previous years, but I think he's best left well alone at this stage and you'll have plenty of time to get money on later if you think he's worth a shot.

[Kevloaf]

Funambule Sivola , who came second to Shishkin .in the Maghull nov chase at Aintrree in 2021.
And obviously was Second to Energumene this year .
I need to rewatch the race , did the conditions favour F.S.this time ??. Has won on good.
Available @ 40-1. B365. surely worth a Look.. ..

Yeah worth a look - I thought he may be a Grand Annual horse last year though, and after a 'failed' QMCC bid, wonder if they'd lower their sites this year?

and hadn't read Charlie's reply before that, but that is well reasoned as a reason not to back yet...

[BigChaang]

I think bets like this can add up and obliterate a P&L if not careful. To clarify, when I say 'like this' I mean horses we know deep down aren't going to be good enough but the price tempts us into making the case that they are. He'd probably be a similar-ish price on the day as last year wouldn't he? Yes, he was second last year at 40/1 but the race completely fell apart and I don't think the ground disadvantaged him having seen him win on soft before. Second to Shishkin in 2021 feels like cherry picking the form - beating The Big Bite 1L, First Flow 4L and Sceau Royal 2L feels like a more accurate reflection of his level. Thats obv not bad at all and I am being tough on him, but it's not going to put him anywhere near Energumene and he'd need to improve loads. He's not unexposed either having seen him race 20+ times so would he improve lots? I don't think so. An on form Shishkin would beat him just as easily as Energumene if near his best, then I'm sure there are better novices coming through too. It's a bet that could look ok if there are lots of injuries and the field completely falls apart as it has in previous years, but I think he's best left well alone at this stage and you'll have plenty of time to get money on later if you think he's worth a shot.

I can't argue with that Charlie , and yes i was cherry picking the form with Shishkin .
As i'm already on , i'll leave it , but obviously with an eye on how he goes first time out.
Obviously i Hope that we see the Rematch between Shishkin and Energumene . That would make everyone's
Wednesday at Prestbury Park.

[Benjy23]

I reckon Nicky will look to avoid Enurgemene until the festival this year with Shishkin... In which case I wonder if a case can be made for unbeaten season at 8/1 being better than 4/1 for the Champion Chase.

There's also the small prospect he missed Cheltenham and mopped up three easier races.

[charlie]

I reckon Nicky will look to avoid Enurgemene until the festival this year with Shishkin... In which case I wonder if a case can be made for unbeaten season at 8/1 being better than 4/1 for the Champion Chase.

There's also the small prospect he missed Cheltenham and mopped up three easier races.

It's tempting, but major questions remain. Will he run enough times to qualify as a winning bet? Has he recovered from his injury? Will a careful campaign prepare him properly for a clash one year older post a health issue? All of these combined make me think no, but if I was on the inside and I knew he's recovered I would back that.

[Magpie]

Decided to back Edwardstone @ 16s ew. It’s a more than fair price IMO. I’ve went through all last season thinking ihe was not good enough, and then still not giving much credit beating the likes of Blue lord etc. Watching the cheltenham race again, he did everything right, and can’t do any more than that. Will look a decent price if Shiskin or Mullins horse (can’t spell it) does not turn up. Happy to have the cash out and see how the season progresses.

[charlie]

Decided to back Edwardstone @ 16s ew. It’s a more than fair price IMO. I’ve went through all last season thinking ihe was not good enough, and then still not giving much credit beating the likes of Blue lord etc. Watching the cheltenham race again, he did everything right, and can’t do any more than that. Will look a decent price if Shiskin or Mullins horse (can’t spell it) does not turn up. Happy to have the cash out and see how the season progresses.

He's a beacon of consistency and ran to his usual level at Aintree but got well and truly walloped by presumably Willies third or fourth string. He had no excuses that day and the Arkle wasn't that deep either. Ferny would have beaten him IMO, as would GDM reposing, and I'd be confident there are 2-3 more that are better. Not a bad bet I just think he'll be found wanting. 16's is a fair price though. Lots can happen and the race does sometimes cut up

[Magpie]

He's a beacon of consistency and ran to his usual level at Aintree but got well and truly walloped by presumably Willies third or fourth string. He had no excuses that day and the Arkle wasn't that deep either. Ferny would have beaten him IMO, as would GDM reposing, and I'd be confident there are 2-3 more that are better. Not a bad bet I just think he'll be found wanting. 16's is a fair price though. Lots can happen and the race does sometimes cut up

That’s kind of my thinking Charlie, I don’t expect him to meet Shiskin anytime soon, and as long as not beat by another British horse will have time to cash out. I probably will if the main protagonists are still standing come Jan/Feb.

[Lobos]

He's a beacon of consistency and ran to his usual level at Aintree but got well and truly walloped by presumably Willies third or fourth string. He had no excuses that day and the Arkle wasn't that deep either. Ferny would have beaten him IMO, as would GDM reposing, and I'd be confident there are 2-3 more that are better. Not a bad bet I just think he'll be found wanting. 16's is a fair price though. Lots can happen and the race does sometimes cut up

Ummmmmm, he'd been on the go for 5 months having had 6 races at the top level before Aintree whereas GDM was a lot, lot fresher. That's a good enough excuse for me for a slightly flat performance.

Can't believe I'm sticking up for him now after dissing him all last season

[Lobos]

That’s kind of my thinking Charlie, I don’t expect him to meet Shiskin anytime soon, and as long as not beat by another British horse will have time to cash out. I probably will if the main protagonists are still standing come Jan/Feb.

He'll meet Shishkin in the Tingle Creek if the lovely bones are ok.

[Lobos]

This does bring back memories of the Put the Kettle On debate after she won a weak Arkle renewal and we all know how that ended up.....

[charlie]

Ummmmmm, he'd been on the go for 5 months having had 6 races at the top level before Aintree whereas GDM was a lot, lot fresher. That's a good enough excuse for me for a slightly flat performance.

Can't believe I'm sticking up for him now after dissing him all last season

But it wasn't a flat performance, not even slightly. He ran almost exactly to form and got smashed as he finally bumped into one having had easier assignments all season. He didn't look tired, he ran to an RPR consistent to his last 5 races and had every chance when GDM made a mistake, and still got beat. There were no excuses IMO and I'd be surprised if he was of QMCC standard (which feels weird saying about an Arkle winner)