2023 Champion Chase

[Lobos]

Have to agree to disagree Charlie. 5 months hard graft at the top table is bound to have an effect. Aintree form has always been suspect imo. Even Willie said his horse was fresher so had an advantage.

Mullins felt he was taking on the favourite at just the right time and said: "I was hoping that Alan's horse might just be feeling the effects of Cheltrenham and that's probably what happened.
"He'd been working very well but you don't think you're going to come and beat the Arkle winner. We were fresh coming here and we were hoping our freshness might be the right card to play and it looked like that.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Alan King said the same about his horse having a long hard season. I think he would be a decent e/w bet but King has also suggested he might step him up to 2m 4f this season so that (along with Energumene and Shishkin) puts me off backing him - but the best of luck to those who take a chance on him .

[Lobos]

He'll only step up IF he doesn't bring his 2m form into open company. If he did step up he'd bump into Allaho.........ouch !

[Magpie]

He'll meet Shishkin in the Tingle Creek if the lovely bones are ok.

Oh, I’ll see if Shiskin does turn up. This race is giving me a headache, it’s only October!

[charlie]

Have to agree to disagree Charlie. 5 months hard graft at the top table is bound to have an effect. Aintree form has always been suspect imo. Even Willie said his horse was fresher so had an advantage.

Mullins felt he was taking on the favourite at just the right time and said: "I was hoping that Alan's horse might just be feeling the effects of Cheltrenham and that's probably what happened.
"He'd been working very well but you don't think you're going to come and beat the Arkle winner. We were fresh coming here and we were hoping our freshness might be the right card to play and it looked like that.

Edwardstone won the Arkle fairly readily and ran to a level consistent to his 4 runs prior so I think the tired angle will be overplayed to justify being beaten by a proper horse.

I might be wrong and its probably a small factor, but I don't think it was the deciding factor. Largely irrelevant really as I dont think he'll be good enough and it sounds like AK might go up in trip.

[Saxon Warrior]

Edwardstone won the Arkle fairly readily and ran to a level consistent to his 4 runs prior so I think the tired angle will be overplayed to justify being beaten by a proper horse.

I might be wrong and its probably a small factor, but I don't think it was the deciding factor. Largely irrelevant really as I dont think he'll be good enough and it sounds like AK might go up in trip.

I agree, Alan.King, doesn't seem to mention Edwardstone without sneaking in, he may need to go further.

[FinalFurlong91]

Can see king just trying to pick up 2 mile to 2 mile 4f races that the likes of shiskin, energumene and allaho aren't running in

If he places him well he could win a few nice pots again

[charlie]

I agree, Alan.King, doesn't seem to mention Edwardstone without sneaking in, he may need to go further.

Yeh that in itself says enough. I think AK knows he got away with it in the Arkle.

[Eggs]

….in his stable tour, King says Edwardstone will run in the Schloer Chase and they will then decide whether to step him up to 2.5m.

[Saxon Warrior]

….in his stable tour, King says Edwardstone will run in the Schloer Chase and they will then decide whether to step him up to 2.5m.

Yes, one of those mentions of 2M4F, that seeps into his reports.

[Lobos]

….in his stable tour, King says Edwardstone will run in the Schloer Chase and they will then decide whether to step him up to 2.5m.

The Shloer will be a good test v Nube Negra who win the race last year and is really good when very fresh. Win that well and onto the Tingle Creek. Lose and decide where to go next.

Just rewatched his Arkle win. He did well not to be brought down early as he lost ground when swerving violently and being pulled back to avoid faller. He then was given a hefty clout by RD when jumping the last before sprinting away up the hill. Based on that his Arkle win can be marked up imo.

[charlie]

The Shloer will be a good test v Nube Negra who win the race last year and is really good when very fresh. Win that well and onto the Tingle Creek. Lose and decide where to go next.

Just rewatched his Arkle win. He did well not to be brought down early as he lost ground when swerving violently and being pulled back to avoid faller. He then was given a hefty clout by RD when jumping the last before sprinting away up the hill. Based on that his Arkle win can be marked up imo.

Your take on events feels pretty bias here Lobos. He took the fence upside Blue Lord and rounds the turn marginally behind him having bagged the inner rail, so it was marginal ground lost, at best. The bump (or coming together in the air) barely checked his momentum and could hardly be labelled a clout (it may have been that for a tired RD).

Despite AK saying he might go up in trip, I'm going to have to bloody back Edwardstone at 16/1 for the QMCC now aren't I!!! I really don't want to.

I backed GDM at 14/1 who easily accounted for Edwardstone at Aintree and I just don't buy the excuses. They sound like good reasons to explain the result, but don't hold up to scrutiny IMO. You are right, Edwardstone sprinted up the hill and didn't look to have a really hard race. He then had more time to recover between Cheltenham and Aintree than in the previous year. He then ran pretty much exactly to form. He had a clear run and hit 3 out cruising then Tom Cannon thought 'shit, I'm actually in a horse race here'. So yeh, tired after a long season for a horse that takes his racing and didn't really have a tough time of it pre Cheltenham doesn't cut the mustard with me, he just met a proper horse having not met one all season.

I do think its fair to say perhaps Aintree wouldn't suit him as much and I do think he is a good cover bet in hindsight. I take the view we're unlikely to see Shishkin or Ferny and Energumene is just one horse. Arkle winners (regardless of my view) do well in the race, so it feels like a sensible cover doesnt it.

[Lobos]

I knew I could crack you Charlie Good move. B365 are standing alone. Paddy Power/Betfair are just 8's. The 16's will be snapped up today after the RP jumps pull out.

[Saxon Warrior]

Your take on events feels pretty bias here Lobos. He took the fence upside Blue Lord and rounds the turn marginally behind him having bagged the inner rail, so it was marginal ground lost, at best. The bump (or coming together in the air) barely checked his momentum and could hardly be labelled a clout (it may have been that for a tired RD).

Despite AK saying he might go up in trip, I'm going to have to bloody back Edwardstone at 16/1 for the QMCC now aren't I!!! I really don't want to.

I backed GDM at 14/1 who easily accounted for Edwardstone at Aintree and I just don't buy the excuses. They sound like good reasons to explain the result, but don't hold up to scrutiny IMO. You are right, Edwardstone sprinted up the hill and didn't look to have a really hard race. He then had more time to recover between Cheltenham and Aintree than in the previous year. He then ran pretty much exactly to form. He had a clear run and hit 3 out cruising then Tom Cannon thought 'shit, I'm actually in a horse race here'. So yeh, tired after a long season for a horse that takes his racing and didn't really have a tough time of it pre Cheltenham doesn't cut the mustard with me, he just met a proper horse having not met one all season.

I do think its fair to say perhaps Aintree wouldn't suit him as much and I do think he is a good cover bet in hindsight. I take the view we're unlikely to see Shishkin or Ferny and Energumene is just one horse. Arkle winners (regardless of my view) do well in the race, so it feels like a sensible cover doesnt it.

You could just as easily back Edwardstone to win the Schloer, not the QMCC if you dont 100% believe he's the main, or even 2nd, or 3rd best bet in it.

Then if he beat NN, you could roll your winnings onto any revised prices for the QMCC, or just keep them, if you're not that impressed.

He won't be taking on the two top-notchers in November, so the market shake-up (if any) won't touch the top of the market.

Depends on if you bookbuild or not.
Bookbuilders have to back him pre-Schloer, I would say.

If you don't then you're at complete freedom to play the Schloer as a win bet, with any-to-come going onto the Ryanair or the QMCC or staying in your pocket.

Personally, I think Energumene, Shishkin, Gentleman De Mee are better than him (maybe Ferny Hollow too), so theres no rush at all to back him for March, but I may back him for the November race, once I know the likely field.

And to add further, at this point, I would probably have him as a potential no 2 for the Ryanair behind Allaho, rather than number 3, 4 or 5 for the QMCC.

[Lobos]

Sounds good on paper Sax but if he were to fall at the last when clear in the Shloer then it'll backfire. The 16's is far too big (double what Betfair are at) and won't be there come the race in November so you'll need to make a decision now to bet him AP or not for the CC. I do think Energumene is the one to beat but as an EW bet Edwardstone just jumps out of the page. I can't have FH over him at this point as he's not made the last two Festivals. Shishkin is a huge risk and that just leaves GDM who may not even go down the CC route if Energumene and FH do. He'll not send 3 to the race will he ?? If I was really picky I could also say the CC this year fell apart with Shishkin pulling up and his only other challenger falling and Energumene easily beat nothing more than a handicapper but I'll leave that to someone else to say