2023 Champion Hurdle

[JamieSensible]

To be honest if a horse of that profile was out for the festival you wouldn't have a chance at cashing out. They would have taken away the cash out about a week before Henderson or who ever announced it. Thankfully not that case.

[seathestars27]

Vauban to place 11/10 with Sky Bet is surely printing money. Can’t see any threat - top 3 so far ahead

[Lobos]

Vauban to place 11/10 with Sky Bet is surely printing money. Can’t see any threat - top 3 so far ahead

Top 2 so far ahead. Risky as you are playing with potentially just one place. Bookies know what they are doing.

[seathestars27]

Fair - but with HS going to the Mares, where is the threat? I’d take 11/10 Vs. Any challenger

[Quevega]

Fair - but with HS going to the Mares, where is the threat? I’d take 11/10 Vs. Any challenger

First Street might run well.
And the risk with these type of bets is the horses that are not running to win.
If the pace is hot, which it might well be, then the ones out the back with ability may well be closing on a horse like Vauban.

[Benjy23]

Top 2 so far ahead. Risky as you are playing with potentially just one place. Bookies know what they are doing.

Could literally use this for any win only bet / market

Agree with above though. If he's running to win then he could face a pace he's not used to and something stay on into a place past him. Still not a bad price NRNB to be fair.

[Bollinger]

Vauban to place 11/10 with Sky Bet is surely printing money. Can’t see any threat - top 3 so far ahead

In a sport of opinions, and I appreciate mine is only one of many thousands, I would humbly suggest Vauban to place in the Champion Hurdle at 11/10 is just about the right price, as opposed to ‘printing money’?

If we go back to 2019, Apple’s Jade, Laurina & Buveur D’air were all vying for favoritism, and all led the market at prices between 7/4 & 11/4. A 16/1 horse won it with the widest winning margin of the Champion Hurdle ever with 15 lengths.

The top 3 in the market, remember all sub 3/1 shots on the day - finished 4th, 6th and ‘clipped the 3rd fence and fell’.

Nobody could have foreseen not a single protagonist of those 3 not even placing.

Roll forward 4 years and effectively, you’ve got Vauban only playing for 1 place. I think it’s fair to say State Man has put Vauban snugly in his place twice this season, and there wouldn’t be any reason to suggest Vauban can get ahead of him in 5 weeks time.

I did put up a post a few weeks ago that a SKYBet trader had made an error with putting up State Man at 1/2 to place in the Champ Hurdle……and 4/6 to place in any race. They’d got their markets mixed up there, for sure.

Though the odds are not telling you nothing I couldn’t, the 4/9 on State Man to place in the Champ Hurdle, with 2 places to play with, and a small potential chance of all 3, I’d go as far to say that 4/9 is a better value bet than the very likely 1 place you’re going to be playing with for Vauban. The saving grace could be you have a small field of 7 runners at best.

11/10 on Vauban to place is for me, just about right - believing it’s a bet that’s as good as ‘printing money’ is getting ahead of yourself a little, particularly as the other declarations we have little knowledge of at the moment.

[Istabraq]

11/10 on Vauban to place is for me, just about right - believing it’s a bet that’s as good as ‘printing money’ is getting ahead of yourself a little, particularly as the other declarations we have little knowledge of at the moment.

I don't disagree, but I've thought for a while now that the champion hurdle might not get eight runners, in which case now would be a good time to snap up the three places assuming it is three places.
The wording is open to interpretation; to 'place' brings in standard rules of gambling, i.e 3 places if 8+ runners but only 2 places if 5-7 runners.
I'd be checking the terms with Sky...

[Lobos]

Very, very good point Ista.

[seathestars27]

I don't disagree, but I've thought for a while now that the champion hurdle might not get eight runners, in which case now would be a good time to snap up the three places assuming it is three places.
The wording is open to interpretation; to 'place' brings in standard rules of gambling, i.e 3 places if 8+ runners but only 2 places if 5-7 runners.
I'd be checking the terms with Sky...

I have had bets like this on Sky Bet every year - they always pay what they say when bet is placed - Ie. Last year I had Vanillier to place top 3 at 9/4 or something like that - 6 lined up on the day, came 3rd, they pay out the bet for top 3 like when I placed the bet.
The bet also clearly says 3 places and has always paid out when fields have gone down to 7 and lower.

Overall though having read the comments, the price looks fair.
I will still back it some more as I really think Vauban will come in the Top 3

[Istabraq]

I have had bets like this on Sky Bet every year - they always pay what they say when bet is placed - Ie. Last year I had Vanillier to place top 3 at 9/4 or something like that - 6 lined up on the day, came 3rd, they pay out the bet for top 3 like when I placed the bet.
The bet also clearly says 3 places and has always paid out when fields have gone down to 7 and lower.

Overall though having read the comments, the price looks fair.
I will still back it some more as I really think Vauban will come in the Top 3

OK, great, as long as the bet specifically states top 3 you are fine, at 11/10 it looks a better play than the betfair 3 place market on the day which would probably have Vauban around 1.85/1.90...

[Bollinger]

I’m pretty sure the 6/5 on Con Hill to win/ State Man to place, at an almost 10% increase in value on the 11/10 available on Vauban to place is a touch better way into the market.

[Zachx02]

I’m pretty sure the 6/5 on Con Hill to win/ State Man to place, at an almost 10% increase in value on the 11/10 available on Vauban to place is a touch better way into the market.

Where is this offered?

[Bollinger]

Where is this offered?

Skybet. Freely available for last 7 days and currently.

[Bollinger]

Skybet. Freely available for last 7 days and currently.

If you concede State Man is indeed going to wrap up one of those 2 minor placings, you’re then getting 6/5 and odds against Con’ Hill winning it.

That’s a little more like ‘printing money’.