2022 Gold Cup

[Carnage at Taunton]

Interesting reading people's comments re EA and CH.
In the context of a Gold Cup,I can see why opinions divide , as neither has proved himself in that regard.
Some,well I imagine quiet a lot,think EA is a better horse. He may be but then again......
Shame he fell we would know then.
But of course all that would have proved is EA is better over that distance,not 3m 2f.
And that's the big question
For me, for a gold cup I prefer CH out the two,purely on what I have seen with my eyes on the racecourse.
Plus I am more sure he will actually run in the race.

All fascinating stuff though, and this race could be something special next March.

[That Horse]

That's really interesting info - particularly given his form with Galvin a couple of years ago, thanks. Maybe I'll add a slightly more negative slant to anything I see tomorrow now...

Listened to that bit back, fully awake now, Says he got the feeling from Kim that the horse had been overhyped after Ascot last year, hadn't proved anything against top level opposition, now has it to prove if he can live with likes of A Plus Tard tomorrow after not finishing last two races.

[Odin]

Listened to that bit back, fully awake now, Says he got the feeling from Kim that the horse had been overhyped after Ascot last year, hadn't proved anything against top level opposition, now has it to prove if he can live with likes of A Plus Tard tomorrow after not finishing last two races.

Ok, that's a bit more in line with my thoughts at the moment as well to be fair. I think penultimate run can be forgiven though (Indo fell before winning gold cup). Last run is the big question mark - too many horses continue to have burst blood vessel issues after the first one. I'm not worried about how badly he performed other than that though - a 3 mile gold cup horse would always struggle for pace in a 2mile speed 2.5mile race (if that makes sense). Tomorrow is undoubtedly a big day for IA in my eyes though. As I've mentioned earlier, I've got him in a double with eklat de rire (Ladbrokes) both at double figure prices so it would be nice to see him go well but I'm definitely hopeful rather than confident. Tbh - I expect Bristol to win tomorrow and will be covering him on the day

[Garrison Savannah]

Didn’t understand the love for IA last year when there was hype over his chances in the Ryanair.

Almost a year to the day he won the 1965 which wasn’t the best renewal in the first place and got worse when the race fell apart (Black Corton unseated and Real Steel made a juddering mistake 3 out which effectively finished his race [what has Real Steel gone on to do anyway?] IA ended up beating Itchy Feet, who hadn’t travelled a yard, by 5 lengths).

Since then IA has unseated in one race and bled in the next.

It’s an awful big jump to make to say he once beat Galvin over an intermediate trip so he’d have a good chance in a Gold Cup?

What have I missed?

[Odin]

Didn’t understand the love for IA last year when there was hype over his chances in the Ryanair.

Almost a year to the day he won the 1965 which wasn’t the best renewal in the first place and got worse when the race fell apart (Black Corton unseated and Real Steel made a juddering mistake 3 out which effectively finished his race [what has Real Steel gone on to do anyway?] IA ended up beating Itchy Feet, who hadn’t travelled a yard, by 5 lengths).

Since then IA has unseated in one race and bled in the next.

It’s an awful big jump to make to say he once beat Galvin over an intermediate trip so he’d have a good chance in a Gold Cup?

What have I missed?

To be clear, I'm playing the odds when backing him. He's a 50/1 horse at the moment so he's entitled to have multiple flaws in his form. My point is that he's meant to have been a 3m horse with a plan (novices handicap - ryanair - gold cup in consecutive years, very similar to the route they took with imperial commander) from day 1. Galvins improvement since the handicap has come beyond 2.5m, IA is yet to race beyond 2.5m. Its not a stretch to say he can improve from his current ability (which I don't think anyone would disagree is a high level, but not yet grade 1 class) as he steps up on distance. Through the lens of 50/1 odds, that's not a bad punt. Similarly the 66/1 available for next destination isn't bad even though neither may prove good enough.

[Lbur4288]

I see Next Destination has an entry in the Welsh national next month.

[Garrison Savannah]

Wasn’t digging anyone out Odin - more searching for what others have noticed that I’ve missed. For sure, every horse has his price, I just haven’t seen much evidence to lead me to believe he has much improvement in him. There’s little point exposing holes in a 50/1 poke, but similarly to namecheck Imperial Commander and a particular route is a terribly weak argument for either a reason to expect improvement or a demonstration of what he’s currently achieved (in terms of the way I bet - again not a criticism). As a rule, I don’t back bleeders, especially next time out.

To summarise, I don’t think he’s beaten any horse of note (Galvin aside and it’s yet to be seen what his ceiling is), he’s won poor races, and I haven’t seen anything in his runs to suggest he’d improve for a step up in trip.

What I would say is I know next to nothing about his parentage/ancestry and perhaps that would indicate improvement for 3+ miles?

[Odin]

Yeah my response wasn't meant to be confrontational so sorry if it came across that way. I only namechecked IC because it's the same ownership group and they namechecked that plan when I heard about it. Obviously there's a decade between the two situations which limits its usefulness, but I thought it interesting when they mentioned it hence putting it here. I don't disagree at all with your argument about bleeders, I am concerned about that aspect but placed the bet on IA a while back when I expected the race to cut up more. I also wonder how much this specific burst blood vessel is down to just how quick Allaho went in the Ryanair and doubt IA will ever face that kind of speed stress again. Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about him and I'll be the first to admit I got it completely wrong if that turns out to be the case - I've already had to do that with Galvin in this race so it wouldn't be anything new!

[Garrison Savannah]

As will I mate - best of luck with your bet.

I’m sitting out of the Betfair Chase, there’s too many question marks in all of them for me to have any confidence!

[Lobos]

Al Boum Photo very unlikely to run at Thurles next Thursday due to prevailing ground conditions.

[Kevloaf]

Al Boum Photo very unlikely to run at Thurles next Thursday due to prevailing ground conditions.

Are you (anyone) surprised they're taking a different approach this year?

The 1 run at Tramore has resulted in a 113 record....

[Lobos]

Are you (anyone) surprised they're taking a different approach this year?

The 1 run at Tramore has resulted in a 113 record....

Yeah a little. Perhaps they should just have been a little harder on him in training between the races than they were last year. With the weather as it is they may just have to keep to the same format anyway.

[Kevloaf]

Yeah a little. Perhaps they should just have been a little harder on him in training between the races than they were last year. With the weather as it is they may just have to keep to the same format anyway.

For me, the mantra that 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' isn't optimal. I think he'd have still won the GC;s he did if he'd have been trained differently...so going 'against that' to try and find improvement is a bit far fetched....

However, he doesn't need to improve to win a 3rd, in theory.

[Middle_Of_March]

At 66/1 with cashout, surely Next Destination is an absolute must bet for the Gold Cup before Saturday. Unexposed, with a proven trainer for the GC and has all the makings of being a big shortener if he wins or even runs well in the Betfair Chase.

Having thought about it, I’ve decided Next Destination wins the Betfair Chase by 5 lengths lads. Gold Cup price be 14s by Sunday morning.

[charlie]

Re ABP, plenty of horses never make it back to their Gold Cup winning standard after having won it once, so having won it twice and run for 3 consecutive years, and rising 10, its more than plausible he may be less enthusiastic at the game and take more training/racing to get fit and ready for the job at hand.