2022 Gold Cup

[Silverbirch]

But people weren't picking based on price.
just who they thought could win.

Historically more horses win first go at the Gold Cup as second season chasers than.
* win the race twice
* win the race second time round having been beaten first time round.

On that profile he is one of the best placed to have a crack at the race.

Maybe we should have a round of who is the best priced/best value in each of those races.

A different set of picks probably emerges from that.

Would be an interesting thread.

Based on that surely you have to think Envoi Allen is a better bet than Chantry house for the Gold Cup?

I don't wanna hear the drivel about staying 3m, in regards to EA, when chantry house would have (probably) lost to Espoir de romay and beat a pathetic 2 horse race last up over 3m.

Envoi Allen is just a better horse than Chantry House. Won't have anyone tell me different. Yet really hardly anyone has predicted him to win the GC.

[Saxon Warrior]

Based on that surely you have to think Envoi Allen is a better bet than Chantry house for the Gold Cup?

I don't wanna hear the drivel about staying 3m, in regards to EA, when chantry house would have (probably) lost to Espoir de romay and beat a pathetic 2 horse race last up over 3m.

Envoi Allen is just a better horse than Chantry House. Won't have anyone tell me different. Yet really hardly anyone has predicted him to win the GC.

Probably because Henry has two or three other Gold Cup horses, it makes it less obvious that EA goes there too, for some people.

I hope EA wins the Gold Cup, but I probably didn't pick him to in the poll.

Hopefully the John Durkan will be a cakewalk for him, then the Savills and 3M.

[Spectre]

Based on that surely you have to think Envoi Allen is a better bet than Chantry house for the Gold Cup?

I don't wanna hear the drivel about staying 3m, in regards to EA, when chantry house would have (probably) lost to Espoir de romay and beat a pathetic 2 horse race last up over 3m.

Envoi Allen is just a better horse than Chantry House. Won't have anyone tell me different. Yet really hardly anyone has predicted him to win the GC.

Sometimes it doesn't pay to be so hard in your stance.

Florida Pearl was a better horse than See More Business and Go Ballistic, and many of the others that he faced in Gold Cups, but the truth was 3m2f at Gold Cup pace was beyond him.

Envoi Allen is a better horse than Chantry House. It's possible that 3m2f at Gold Cup pace will be beyond Envoi Allen too.

I had my fingers burnt on Florida Pearl twice before I learnt my lesson.

[robith]

Based on that surely you have to think Envoi Allen is a better bet than Chantry house for the Gold Cup?

I don't wanna hear the drivel about staying 3m, in regards to EA, when chantry house would have (probably) lost to Espoir de romay and beat a pathetic 2 horse race last up over 3m.

Envoi Allen is just a better horse than Chantry House. Won't have anyone tell me different. Yet really hardly anyone has predicted him to win the GC.

I'm a big believer in Envoi for the Gold Cup, but increasingly think his trainer isn't of the same mind

[Lobos]

I'm a big believer in Envoi for the Gold Cup, but increasingly think his trainer isn't of the same mind

His odds would suggest otherwise. He's steadily being bet in. Could be favourite within a week.

[Silverbirch]

Envoi Allen is a better horse than Chantry House. It's possible that 3m2f at Gold Cup pace will be beyond Envoi Allen too.

Exactly the same point is to be made against Chantry house.
I'm literally taking one observation from the picks and trying to get my head around it. Which I can't still

[Istabraq]

Based on that surely you have to think Envoi Allen is a better bet than Chantry house for the Gold Cup?

I don't wanna hear the drivel about staying 3m, in regards to EA, when chantry house would have (probably) lost to Espoir de romay and beat a pathetic 2 horse race last up over 3m.

Envoi Allen is just a better horse than Chantry House. Won't have anyone tell me different. Yet really hardly anyone has predicted him to win the GC.

Been a massive Envoi fan for this foe a long time, and I agree he is simply a better horse than Chantry House, but the injury/operation was always going to cast doubts and although his comeback was impressive he needs to do it in good company.
As a sidenote, I saw he was 7/1 with Fred last night so confidence appears to be growing…

[Saxon Warrior]

Sometimes it doesn't pay to be so hard in your stance.

Florida Pearl was a better horse than See More Business and Go Ballistic, and many of the others that he faced in Gold Cups, but the truth was 3m2f at Gold Cup pace was beyond him.

Envoi Allen is a better horse than Chantry House. It's possible that 3m2f at Gold Cup pace will be beyond Envoi Allen too.

I had my fingers burnt on Florida Pearl twice before I learnt my lesson.

Agree Spectre

It doesnt pay to be hard in your stance on results for jump racing months in advance, particularly if trying to persuade others to see your way.

We only have opinions to share, not facts.

Those opinions may be well thought out, reasoned and articulated, or just blurted out as fake-facts, but the receivers of those wisdoms don't have to agree with them.

[Craigy14]

I went for Chantry because of the profile angle and also that Envoi may not come here with the Ryanair looking very likely as well. If EA is targeted here my opinion would change.

Not a lot to get your head round to be honest. First time runners in the Gold Cup have the best chance of winning historically. I’ve backed 3 and need to add imperial Aura (may wait until after Saturdays performance though).

[RufusFlynn]

If you look back, generally only 1 (at most) of the placed horses feature at the business end of the Gold Cup in the following year and like many others have said, horses having their first attempt are statistically most likely to win.

Minella Indo & A Plus Tard could both have strong claims again this year but if you had to make a call which of this years placed horses would be most likely to feature again?

[That Horse]

If you look back, generally only 1 (at most) of the placed horses feature at the business end of the Gold Cup in the following year and like many others have said, horses having their first attempt are statistically most likely to win.

Minella Indo & A Plus Tard could both have strong claims again this year but if you had to make a call which of this years placed horses would be most likely to feature again?

A Plus Tard out of those two although I have also backed Al Boum Photo each way, purely given his price and him going to be raced more often.

As a sidenote, pretty amazing that Kauto Star, Denman and Long Run were filling up the places across multiple years, in KS's case winning multiple as well, seems like an age ago now.

[Topofthegame2021]

Based on that surely you have to think Envoi Allen is a better bet than Chantry house for the Gold Cup?

I don't wanna hear the drivel about staying 3m, in regards to EA, when chantry house would have (probably) lost to Espoir de romay and beat a pathetic 2 horse race last up over 3m.

Envoi Allen is just a better horse than Chantry House. Won't have anyone tell me different. Yet really hardly anyone has predicted him to win the GC.

2 questions, and I would genuinely like to hear your opinion as someone who’s firmly in the CH camp:

1) What has Envoi Allen done to convince you that he’s so easily a better horse than CH
2) If they they were to both meet this weekend over 3miles, do you think EA would win?

[Silverbirch]

2 questions, and I would genuinely like to hear your opinion as someone who’s firmly in the CH camp:

1) What has Envoi Allen done to convince you that he’s so easily a better horse than CH
2) If they they were to both meet this weekend over 3miles, do you think EA would win?

If you want bare facts it's easy to say envoi beat abacadabras twice who went on to beat Chantry house. But obviously it's not as simple as that. Envoi Allen was described by Gordon as the best horse he'll ever have and still loses sleep at night. Chantry house looks a solid stayer, nothing flashy. To my eye EA has a bigger engine and more class. You genuinely think Chantry would have beat EA if he hadn't fallen?

No idea. Both are untested over 3m. I'm making the point that people's assumptions that first time horses in the gold cup often win. Hence the point being made about EA Vs the picks thread. I think the question to be asked is, what have you seen from chantry house in the two 3m runs that's makes your think he can win a gold cup? And once again my point against the first time win thing, Galvin. Already shown he can mix it with the big boys. But again not much love in relation to the first time win/trend.

I actually don't think either will win the GC for what it's worth.

[7barrows]

Could Imperial Aura be a dark horse at 50/1. Is one of few in the field that won’t mind the going on the betfair chase Saturday ( actaully think hes not a bad poke at 12/1 for this also) , he has a good first time out record too. I Recall he was Ryan air favorite after his ascot win last year and has has excuses since. Wind op over the summer cant be a bad thing either ... Just having a look at the 50s available for the gold cup, if he wins this Id have him in the Chantry House / Galvin outsider camp. He has actually already beaten galvin at chelts which is interesting

[Topofthegame2021]

If you want bare facts it's easy to say envoi beat abacadabras twice who went on to beat Chantry house. But obviously it's not as simple as that. Envoi Allen was described by Gordon as the best horse he'll ever have and still loses sleep at night. Chantry house looks a solid stayer, nothing flashy. To my eye EA has a bigger engine and more class. You genuinely think Chantry would have beat EA if he hadn't fallen?

No idea. Both are untested over 3m. I'm making the point that people's assumptions that first time horses in the gold cup often win. Hence the point being made about EA Vs the picks thread. I think the question to be asked is, what have you seen from chantry house in the two 3m runs that's makes your think he can win a gold cup? And once again my point against the first time win thing, Galvin. Already shown he can mix it with the big boys. But again not much love in relation to the first time win/trend.

I actually don't think either will win the GC for what it's worth.

That’s fair. It’s just interesting to hear it from the other point of view.

I’m not sure if CH would have beaten EA in the Marsh. It’s hard to get a gauge on EA’s form because he didn’t beat a lot over fences so I really don’t know (not saying CH beat anything either).

The race fell apart after EA fell with Skelton trying to make it a real stamina test and CH came out on top in that stamina test. That makes me think he will be more effective over 3m + whereas EA was beaten over 3m.

Galvin I really don’t know where I stand with. He doesn’t have the same class as those second season chasers shorter than him in the market, I just don’t know on him.