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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

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  • Originally posted by Trigger View Post
    Asterion Forlonge's constant jumping to his right caused a lot of trouble he basically took out Elixir D'ainay, who brought down Captain Guinness and caused Heaven help us to run wide. Nico done an excellent job keeping Shishkin just out the way of all that carnage, I see he hit 100-1 on the exchange in running. Amazing win
    Shishkin hit 100/1?!

    I haven't watched it back but that seems massive.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
      Shishkin hit 100/1?!

      I haven't watched it back but that seems massive.
      Betfair podcast mentioned this last night, and i think Barry said he didn't? 40s...

      Comment




      • I looked at the matched bets just after the race finished there was a spike up to 100.
        Didn't see how much it was matched for but it did hit 100.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Trigger View Post
          https://www.racingpost.com/news/shis...nderson/426296

          I looked at the matched bets just after the race finished there was a spike up to 100.
          Didn't see how much it was matched for but it did hit 100.
          Here fair enough if he did, i didn't look on Betfair, i just remember it being brought up on the podcast! Huge!

          Comment


          • Originally posted by charlie View Post
            Yeh he made a mistake, hampered, forced wide and still got up. Complete weapon. Easy to say post race though. We didn't know he would be that good, I just hoped he would be.
            Aye 100% lived up to the hype.

            I had the first 4 home but unfortunately all on the nose, something I may need to look at next year. Not complaining though as Shishkin was my biggest winner.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Trigger View Post
              Asterion Forlonge's constant jumping to his right caused a lot of trouble he basically took out Elixir D'ainay, who brought down Captain Guinness and caused Heaven help us to run wide. Nico done an excellent job keeping Shishkin just out the way of all that carnage, I see he hit 100-1 on the exchange in running. Amazing win
              Captain Guinness looked to be cruising when brought down

              Comment


              • First time I've watched the Supreme back in full.

                A few thoughts...

                "Stamina wins the Supreme" - nah, not every time. Certainly not this time. Asterion Forlonge plugged on just fine and was beaten by quicker horses. That cliche is so over used I feel like it blinds people. The notion you need a stayer to win the Supreme is hyped up so much and it's not really backed up. It's hardly a race littered with stayers comapred to 2 or 2 and a half mile horses. There is no doubt for me the 1st and 2nd are speedy types and the 'best staying' horse isn't the first thing I'll be looking for next year.

                Captain Guinness - Initially I thought the fact Abacadbras was behind him then ahead by the time CG got brought down and 'going much better' (opinion) suggests he's far from certain to have been a player. I cannot rule out he'd have been involved though given the evidence, however I'm leaning towards him being over bet next time because nobody can have missed how unlucky he was, and being unlucky is usually over compensated for.

                Shishkin - Is he the superstar we all (I) want him to be? He’s clearly very good, he’s won the Supreme. The proximity of Abacadbras (who was my main fancy) means that Envoi Allen, for me at least, is head and shoulders clear of the novices at 2 miles. That wasn’t even deemed to be EA’s best trip, so are we slightly over rating him? My hope is that he improves for fences. He would need to improve for fences to be a superstar (I’m talking about the next Altior or Sprinter type of level – I don’t mean just Grade 1 level, I have little doubt he’ll be a graded novice chase winner at some point). I flagged the Shishkin / Envoi novice chase double early on the forum and plenty of people seem to agree/have backed it as well, but he’s now at a price where I’m leaning much more towards him being easy to leave alone. There is improvement needed to be as good as I hope and it’s already factored into the price.

                Abacadabras – At the time I remember thinking it was a great ride in defeat, looking at it in more detail, rounding the turn, he’s travelling the best and by the line he hasn’t won. What he has done though is put a LOT of distance back to Asterion Forlonge who he was upsides and Chantry House who was 1 or 2L behind and finishes way back. Champion Hurdler? He’s shown some bottle in the battle, but he has been beaten again. As with any novice, they need to step up into open company but he’ll be one I watch with interest. Hopefully we get a gauge of his level though Sharjah at some stage.

                The aforementioned Chantry House ran alright as well, I’m quietly optimistic he’s a little bit forgotten as the 3rd – some improvement over the summer and he could surprise a few people next year. I liked him going into the race and I like him coming out of it.

                Not interested in any of the beaten horses next year for now until I see them jump. Difflerontheroof being the main one - haha, genuine typing error there that I’m going to leave in.

                Comment


                • I am with you on CG Kev, I think he isn't as good as people want him to be and I will say now, County Hurdle next year if campaigned correctly and mark kept down.

                  Comment


                  • How can anyone be overlooking Elixi D’ainay he was travelling really well just as powerfully as the others when AF junped into him! Ill be keeping eyes on him

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Ray View Post
                      How can anyone be overlooking Elixi D’ainay he was travelling really well just as powerfully as the others when AF junped into him! Ill be keeping eyes on him
                      .... "Not interested in any of the beaten horses next year for now until I see them jump."

                      He's in that camp for me. I know he wasn't top class over hurdles, so he'll need to improve for a fence before I get too carried away.
                      The defeat behind Envoi Allen was a little flattering and it's impossible toget bullish about how he'd have gotten on in the Supreme. On the evidence we have so far, he'd have been well beaten.

                      Comment


                      • I think Envoi Allen is one of those horses who confuse literal form, he can be lazy and I don’t see him putting in a 20l performance that sends every judge wild, more likely get the job done with workmanlike 3l successes similar to Altior in some respects.
                        So horses that get close/close ish could end up being flattered.
                        I could easily be wrong though...

                        Comment


                        • Great race review Kev.

                          Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                          First time I've watched the Supreme back in full.

                          A few thoughts...

                          "Stamina wins the Supreme" - nah, not every time. Certainly not this time.
                          You are certainly right this year but I still think having a horse that stays well is one of the more important factors when looking for the supreme winner. Summerville boy, al ferof, Vautour and champagne fever are all good recent examples of this.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Hardy Eustace View Post
                            Great race review Kev.



                            You are certainly right this year but I still think having a horse that stays well is one of the more important factors when looking for the supreme winner. Summerville boy, al ferof, Vautour and champagne fever are all good recent examples of this.
                            Thanks



                            What do Al Ferof, Vautour and Champagne Fever have in common?
                            Ruby Walsh.

                            I don't think Champagne Fever would have won without Ruby Walsh's ride. He beat MTOY didn't he, a nose? MTOY was definitely a speed horse. If that head bob goes the other way, it'd be easy to forget he ever ran in the race. CF may have been a stayer, we never really got to find out.

                            Vautour was a superstar horse - do you not think he would have won the Arkle? The only reason he didn't run in it was because Ruby wanted to ride Un De Sceaux in the Arkle as at the time he was still a bit of a tear-away. Vautour's King George defeat to Cue Card didn't scream that he was a stayer either The way he front ran and won the JLT and Ryanair showed him to be very freaking fast though?


                            Al Ferof was 9 years ago when and Summerville Boy is shite and won a shite Supreme beating Kalashnikov who is nothing more than a handicapper.




                            If a horse will stay more than 2 miles, great, a nice cherry on top - but I don't think it should be one of the most important factors. The data sample isn't big enough at all with those 5 to prove it, from the last 10 years that'd only be 50% anyway and I think a few of them could be classed as anomolies.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Hardy Eustace View Post
                              Great race review Kev.



                              You are certainly right this year but I still think having a horse that stays well is one of the more important factors when looking for the supreme winner. Summerville boy, al ferof, Vautour and champagne fever are all good recent examples of this.
                              Shishkin is a pretty decent example of staying further won over 2 mile 3 half at Huntingdon and won a 3 mile point. But yes totally know where you’re coming from.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Philg123 View Post
                                Shishkin is a pretty decent example of staying further won over 2 mile 3 half at Huntingdon and won a 3 mile point. But yes totally know where you’re coming from.
                                And the reason why going all in for the Arkle is chancy.

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