Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

As stupid as it seems.......no one at this stage ! There is no rightful fav before the season has started and anyone has jumped a fence. I don't need to tell you lot that. Shiskin is fav on the back of him winning the Supreme and the noises coming from Henderson. That does NOT make him the rightful fav. Yes, he could step forward and take that mantle but any number of horses could do the same. He's only fav on the back of us idiots , and I include myself in that bracket, following the noises and market and him being the Supreme winner.

The 'rightful fav' doesn't have to be the winner of the race though does it?

On everything we know now, which includes NO novice hurdler jumping a fence yet, means we can only go off the Novice Hurdle form (or non-novice hurdle form like Darver Star) - at this stage, the 'rightful favourite' is the one with the best hurdles form.

When they've all had a go chasing, the rightful favourite might change?




This is just a discussion on the technicality of what 'rightful favourite' means.

[Lobos]

The 'rightful fav' doesn't have to be the winner of the race though does it?

On everything we know now, which includes NO novice hurdler jumping a fence yet, means we can only go off the Novice Hurdle form (or non-novice hurdle form like Darver Star) - at this stage, the 'rightful favourite' is the one with the best hurdles form.

When they've all had a go chasing, the rightful favourite might change?




This is just a discussion on the technicality of what 'rightful favourite' means.

Then on that basis Darver Star should be the 'rightful' fav ?

[Kevloaf]

Then on that basis Darver Star should be the 'rightful' fav ?

If you believe his 3rd in the Champion Hurdle was better than winning the Supreme, then yes.

I don't. I believe Darver Star would NOT have won the Supreme had he been allowed to run, as I think Abacadabras is better than him, and therefore so is Shishkin.



You could argue Darver Star is better value, but I also anticipate Darver Star going up in trip over fences. If there had been an intermediate open class hurdle race, he'd have had a pop at that rather than the CH (hypothetically speaking)




Essentially Lobos, what I'm saying is that the majority of the time, the Supreme winner, if going chasing, is the "rightful fav" for the Arkle before the season starts. If a Champion Hurdle winner decided they're going chasing, that'd usurp the Supreme winner - but that would be rare.

[Lobos]

If you believe his 3rd in the Champion Hurdle was better than winning the Supreme, then yes.

I don't. I believe Darver Star would NOT have won the Supreme had he been allowed to run, as I think Abacadabras is better than him, and therefore so is Shishkin.



You could argue Darver Star is better value, but I also anticipate Darver Star going up in trip over fences. If there had been an intermediate open class hurdle race, he'd have had a pop at that rather than the CH (hypothetically speaking)

Don't disagree with that. I think we both know what I'm trying to say although I might not be saying it very well. At this stage Shiskin is awful value especially taking into account we are talking about novice chasers over Hurdles. That hasn't stopped me backing him though so I'm as bad as everyone else.

[Kevloaf]

Don't disagree with that. I think we both know what I'm trying to say although I might not be saying it very well. At this stage Shiskin is awful value especially taking into account we are talking about novice chasers over Hurdles. That hasn't stopped me backing him though so I'm as bad as everyone else.

Yeah I know what you're saying.

I'm doing okay on Shishkin - I have 1 'live' roll up at 20/1 for 1.5 pts and he's in a double with Envoi Allen (the double I put up on here first ) at 41/1

Other than that he's in a few stupid multiples or specials that I know are mug bets but don't do much harm over the winter but I'm sure will just have been wasted stake by the time poush comes to shove.



Elixir D'ainay, Klassical Dream, Felix Desjy and Captain Guinness are all significantly better results for me at the moment.


Until we see them all jumping fences though, it's not really worth thinking about now. Was fun suring the late spring and early summer, but time to tkae a pull now and go in with fresh eyes.

[Lobos]

Yeah I know what you're saying.

I'm doing okay on Shishkin - I have 1 'live' roll up at 20/1 for 1.5 pts and he's in a double with Envoi Allen (the double I put up on here first ) at 41/1

Other than that he's in a few stupid multiples or specials that I know are mug bets but don't do much harm over the winter but I'm sure will just have been wasted stake by the time poush comes to shove.



Elixir D'ainay, Klassical Dream, Felix Desjy and Captain Guinness are all significantly better results for me at the moment.


Until we see them all jumping fences though, it's not really worth thinking about now. Was fun suring the late spring and early summer, but time to tkae a pull now and go in with fresh eyes.

I'm the same. Only had a small single bet early doors TWAR and have him in doubles with Eptante, Al Boum and Envoi but that's it. Captain Guinness, Darver Star and Elixr are all much better value at this stage. I have a feeling Captain Guinness will turn out to be the best of the lot as for me he is the one who has so much more to offer and did brilliantly to show up as well as he did in the Supreme for one so inexperienced. His trainer is a huge plus in the Arkle as well. 20/1 screams 'back Me' !

[Middle_Of_March]

As stupid as it seems.......no one at this stage ! There is no rightful fav before the season has started and anyone has jumped a fence. I don't need to tell you lot that. Shiskin is fav on the back of him winning the Supreme and the noises coming from Henderson. That does NOT make him the rightful fav. Yes, he could step forward and take that mantle but any number of horses could do the same. He's only fav on the back of us idiots , and I include myself in that bracket, following the noises and market and him being the Supreme winner.

In antepost markets though, he’s surely the rightful fav. Nobody’s gone over fences yet and he won the Supreme the year before. Add to that hes trained by someone who does very well with his Arkle horses and Shishkin is one of the few antepost horses looking at the markets that you could confidently say is the correct favourite. Or the majority would anyway.

[EnvoyAllen]

As stupid as it seems.......no one at this stage ! There is no rightful fav before the season has started and anyone has jumped a fence. I don't need to tell you lot that. Shiskin is fav on the back of him winning the Supreme and the noises coming from Henderson. That does NOT make him the rightful fav. Yes, he could step forward and take that mantle but any number of horses could do the same. He's only fav on the back of us idiots , and I include myself in that bracket, following the noises and market and him being the Supreme winner.

Lobos Sir, whether Shishkin ends up being the second coming or refuses to even jump a fence on his chasing debut, he absolutely 100% has to correctly be installed as the strong favourite to win next year’s Arkle. The odds so far haven’t been compiled on what ‘might’ happen between now and March, but what ‘has’ happened throughout his career.

The current odds have 0% bearing on whether he’ll finish first, last or even take to a fence.

The current odds reflect his trend, his performances, his rivals performances, and the probability he’ll go to this race in just under 6 months time.

When you take insurance on a car and ring up for a quote, if you’ve had your car stolen every year for a decade and live in a postcode that’s high on crime, you’ll be quoted a sky high figure.

If you’ve never had your car stolen and live in a postcode with a very low crime rate, you’ll pay a substantially lower premium.

That’s how bookmakers compile their odds - what’s happened previously & what’s likely to happen going forwards using historic trends.

Think of bookmakers in exactly the same way an insurance company works - they can’t tell you what’s going to happen for sure, but they’ll price you up on the probability of it happening.

[Outlaw]

Lobos the question has to be asked,how would you price the race up antepost instead then out of curiosity? You can do a top 5/6 then 25/1 bar to save having to write dozens of horses etc.

[Lobos]

Lobos the question has to be asked,how would you price the race up antepost instead then out of curiosity? You can do a top 5/6 then 25/1 bar to save having to write dozens of horses etc.

All I'll say is nothing should really be less than 10/1 this far out . I do believe though that Captain Guinness and Darver Star both look bigger than they should be.

[Quevega]

Only an idiot would price up the arkle right now.
And not have shishkin as the favourite.

He is therefore the rightful favourite right now.
End this nonsense.

There’s a reason lobos hasn’t responded with a market of his own.
Isn’t there ?
Lobos ?

Each horses current prices and relative value are open to scrutiny though.

[Lobos]

Only an idiot would price up the arkle right now.
And not have shishkin as the favourite.

He is therefore the rightful favourite right now.
End this nonsense.

There’s a reason lobos hasn’t responded with a market of his own.
Isn’t there ?
Lobos ?

Each horses current prices and relative value are open to scrutiny though.

I'd personally have Darver Star as fav based on his Irish and English Champion Hurdle placings which is why I think he's good value currently at 25's.

[Quevega]

I'd personally have Darver Star as fav based on his Irish and English Champion Hurdle placings which is why I think he's good value currently at 25's.

Knew I'd lure you into that.
You know what that makes you then don't you ?

Not getting any younger Darver Star, and will be nine in March.
Usually something that bothers you - the age factor that is.

Trainer did remarkably/suspiciously well with him last season.
But he is no arkle winner in my book.

[Lobos]

Knew I'd lure you into that.
You know what that makes you then don't you ?

Not getting any younger Darver Star, and will be nine in March.
Usually something that bothers you - the age factor that is.

Trainer did remarkably/suspiciously well with him last season.
But he is no arkle winner in my book.

Who wins it then Q ?

[Quevega]

Who wins it then Q ?

Shishkin is worthy favourite, so most likely winner on what we know right now.

I'd personally like to see owners and trainers show more imagination when campaigning these animals.
And I'd let Shishkin go for the Champion hurdle, and send Epatante over fences.
But they won't, cos they're boring.

Imagine if they did though.
It'd shake it up a bit wouldn't it.