Mares Novice Hurdle 2021

[Quevega]

That's what I can't get my head around.

My best guess is that there just hasn't been the quality at the right time. Like this season, the next best filly in Ireland after Riviere d'Etel is the no better than slightly-above-average Scholastic. It is not much deeper in Britain, with Progressive and Megan maybe being useful and Hiconic's crown being taken by Talking About You (who incidentally, beat the older girls at Taunton last month).

Morning Kotkijet.

Speaking as someone who has got the Triumph by the scruff of the neck (like the last 2 years )

What are your thoughts on Tritonic (A King), I've avoided some of his juveniles in recent years because they've been a bit on the speedy side, but this one seems to have more going for him, and do you know if he's the highest rated flat horse King will have sent hurdling ?

Apologies in advance as you'e probably already done a write up on him.

[Lobos]

If Echoes in Rain ran with promise today she may come into the reckoning. Won very nicely on seasonal debut this year and Willie thought enough of her to put her straight in the deep end in the Knight Frank that Aspire Tower won.

If she went close today I agree she'd have a chance in the Mares Novice Hurdle but I don't see her beating Gauloise.

[Kotkijet]

Morning Quevega

Don't worry about apologising. There is so much content on this site that what you're looking for can get lost in minutes!

And recently, yes. At 99, he is the highest rated since Mount Helicon in 2008/09. Since then, the next highest have been Handizan (98), Chatez (96), Cosmeapolitan (95) and Saticon (93). While none of these were top class, there were above average if nothing else.

33/1 Tritonic chg Alan King 9-2-3 (99) 106
Sea The Moon (Selkirk){4-r}(1.13) 4/3 Le Breuil 1st National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2019
Already written
The second Alan King horse on this list, Tritonic would bring a high level of flat form based on his win in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark and finishing runner up in a Royal Ascot handicap. Sire Sea The Moon had a most promising first season as a jumps stallion earning a 43% winners to runners strike rate with 57% of his offspring recording RPRs above 107 including the Grade One winner and Triumph Hurdle third Allmankind. Selkirk's record as a damsire is not quite as exciting although he did produce the Champion Hurdler Sublimity. Owned by the McNeill family, it is more likely than not that he will go hurdling and he would probably make an above average recruit to the game.
Update
Though the topic of some "will he, won't he" speculation, the latest tweet from the owners said he will be trained for one of the better juveniles, and the latest stable tour said that he would be gelded then schooled in January after which he could make his debut in something like the Adonis. The gelding prophesy has been fulfilled, so it now looks to hinge on how he schools. There have been spots of movement and introduction in the Triumph lists so it can be assumed that nothing has been ruled out. On the racecourse, Tritonic has ran four times since Ascot, finishing second in a listed race at Hamilton, sixth in the Geoffrey Freer, second in a Yarmouth handicap off 99, and just under six lengths fourth in the Old Rowley Cup off the same mark. A consistent and capable horse, he seemed more straightforward on his latest start at Newmarket. If he appears this season, it is implied that he has schooled satisfactorily and should not go without attention.

[Hurricane fly]

If she could not be mental that race would show Echoes in Rain has no issues stamina wise

[Can't Catch Me]

If she could not be mental that race would show Echoes in Rain has no issues stamina wise

Totally agree. Just added her myself. She stayed on very well considering she ran with the choke out the whole way, and in the context of the Mares Novice that was a very good run.

[darlojim]

If Echoes in Rain ran with promise today she may come into the reckoning. Won very nicely on seasonal debut this year and Willie thought enough of her to put her straight in the deep end in the Knight Frank that Aspire Tower won.

Shes a lunatic but was only beaten around 5 lengths in the end, if she learns to settle just a little bit she will be a big danger imo.

[Eggs]

....quite a bit of Oddschecker blue for Echoes in Rain following that run. Best priced 20-1 with Hills, as low as 14-1 NRNB elsewhere.

[Hurricane fly]

She was smashed in pre race from 14/1 to 13/2 so no surprise to see a Cheltenham slash follow

[Energumene]

I am surprised that people dont think there is a standout for this. There has been 5 runnings of the race, Mullins has won all 5, all with French recruits, 4 of them 5yo, the exception being Concertista who finished 2nd as 5yo and won as a 6yo, beating a Mullins French 5yo into 2nd. There surely cant be a bigger trend at the whole festival, you want a Mullins trained 5yo French import, and Gauloise is my bet of the meeting. Dont want to aftertime prices in my first post but shes one of a couple who would easily make the meeting for me.

I think she screams quality, in her 2 runs Townend has been having to hold on to her, with her tactical speed and slick jumping you can go where you want on her, and I think she even surprised him with her turn of foot, probably went too soon on her the last day and she showed plenty of stamina at the end. She has everything and I dont think shes the typical mares hurdle type, shes a real 2 miler and shes my Champion Hurdle horse for next season. I think some will be surprised how good she really is when they see her on decent ground at 2 miles in mares novice, and when shes the finished article next season it will take something special to give her 7 pounds.

At the current 5/1 I think she is still the best bet available and ill be backing her for the final time before the Solerina.

[Kevloaf]

I am surprised that people dont think there is a standout for this. There has been 5 runnings of the race, Mullins has won all 5, all with French recruits, 4 of them 5yo, the exception being Concertista who finished 2nd as 5yo and won as a 6yo, beating a Mullins French 5yo into 2nd. There surely cant be a bigger trend at the whole festival, you want a Mullins trained 5yo French import, and Gauloise is my bet of the meeting. Dont want to aftertime prices in my first post but shes one of a couple who would easily make the meeting for me.

I think she screams quality, in her 2 runs Townend has been having to hold on to her, with her tactical speed and slick jumping you can go where you want on her, and I think she even surprised him with her turn of foot, probably went too soon on her the last day and she showed plenty of stamina at the end. She has everything and I dont think shes the typical mares hurdle type, shes a real 2 miler and shes my Champion Hurdle horse for next season. I think some will be surprised how good she really is when they see her on decent ground at 2 miles in mares novice, and when shes the finished article next season it will take something special to give her 7 pounds.

At the current 5/1 I think she is still the best bet available and ill be backing her for the final time before the Solerina.

Whoosh, no messin'.

Question one....

Do you think the fact she's surprised them is a positive? (and why I'm asking...)

Limini and Laurina, huge talking horses (certainly seem to have been held in higher regard than Gauloise has been so far)
Eglantine Du Seuil came from nowhere, unfancied.
Concertista hadn't won a race before bolting up and was a second season novice, like Let's Dance.

For me, it seems she can't be 'stand out' at home, as Hook Up was just as creditable until her last run, so Gauloise is 'left' there by default, rather than being a proper talking horse.


I'm not arguing one bit that she doesn't have a chance, I'm just looking at the profiles thinking it's not like they're all the same, so it's hard to be unequivocally sure she's 'standout'?

[Energumene]

Whoosh, no messin'.

Question one....

Do you think the fact she's surprised them is a positive? (and why I'm asking...)

Limini and Laurina, huge talking horses (certainly seem to have been held in higher regard than Gauloise has been so far)
Eglantine Du Seuil came from nowhere, unfancied.
Concertista hadn't won a race before bolting up and was a second season novice, like Let's Dance.

For me, it seems she can't be 'stand out' at home, as Hook Up was just as creditable until her last run, so Gauloise is 'left' there by default, rather than being a proper talking horse.


I'm not arguing one bit that she doesn't have a chance, I'm just looking at the profiles thinking it's not like they're all the same, so it's hard to be unequivocally sure she's 'standout'?

Thats an interesting point re the reputation of some of his winners, I was suggesting that her turn of foot took Townend by surprise in the race, not that he was surprised that she was a good horse, in fact Mullins after both her runs has repeated that he thinks shes good enough to go up in class, if he says that one more time after a Grade 3 people will have to take notice. I think Limini and Laurina had been slightly more visually impressive on heavy ground than Gauloise, and the hype behind them was not entirely fueled by Mullins comments, but I cant remember specifically when he started talking them up, I dont imagine he would have been calling Limini a superstar after her half length irish debut win. In any case, its on the track where everyone finds out how good they are, and that includes Mullins. The guys at the top of the game are there because they get it right in time, if they underestimated Gauloise initially thats not a problem as long as they find out in time and im confident she will go to the Solerina as a strong favourite because she is their mares novce horse, and they know it now, even if they didnt 3 months ago.

[Kevloaf]

Thats an interesting point re the reputation of some of his winners, I was suggesting that her turn of foot took Townend by surprise in the race, not that he was surprised that she was a good horse, in fact Mullins after both her runs has repeated that he thinks shes good enough to go up in class, if he says that one more time after a Grade 3 people will have to take notice. I think Limini and Laurina had been slightly more visually impressive on heavy ground than Gauloise, and the hype behind them was not entirely fueled by Mullins comments, but I cant remember specifically when he started talking them up, I dont imagine he would have been calling Limini a superstar after her half length irish debut win. In any case, its on the track where everyone finds out how good they are, and that includes Mullins. The guys at the top of the game are there because they get it right in time, if they underestimated Gauloise initially thats not a problem as long as they find out in time and im confident she will go to the Solerina as a strong favourite because she is their mares novce horse, and they know it now, even if they didnt 3 months ago.

All fair enough points

Next question....

What did you think of Shewearsitwell? I'd suggest that if she wasn't sidelined, perhaps she'd be the more high profile and has been more impressive so far? Now she DID surprise them on the track, but I'd be interested to see generally which horse people thought was better so far?

Whilst Shewearsitwell has literally no impact on Gauloise's ability, I'd want to know that the horse was "the best in the yard" before I was considering them already home and hosed and as Champion Hurdle contenders the next season?


The Solerina is clearly a huge race for this division, I think Royal Kahala is an intended runner? That'll be an interesting guide...

[Energumene]

All fair enough points

Next question....

What did you think of Shewearsitwell? I'd suggest that if she wasn't sidelined, perhaps she'd be the more high profile and has been more impressive so far? Now she DID surprise them on the track, but I'd be interested to see generally which horse people thought was better so far?

Whilst Shewearsitwell has literally no impact on Gauloise's ability, I'd want to know that the horse was "the best in the yard" before I was considering them already home and hosed and as Champion Hurdle contenders the next season?


The Solerina is clearly a huge race for this division, I think Royal Kahala is an intended runner? That'll be an interesting guide...

She wouldnt lay a glove on Gauloise at 2 miles imo, different species, she didnt fit the profile for the race and I was never considering her for it, I just dont think shes in the same class in any aspect of the 2 mile game, jumping, tactical speed, acceleration, Gauloise is better in every department, at 2m4+ on heavy ground thats a different ball game but ultimately im not convinced that Shewaersitwell is top class, im actually pretty confident she isnt after seeing her driven for dear life to pass Bonarc 2 out at Sligo.

Royal Kahala will no doubt be 2nd favourite, at 2m2 on heavy she maybe has a chance of getting a brief metnion from Gerry Hannon, but Gauloise will leave her standing still and she has no chance of winning at Cheltenham. The 2m4 fairyhouse race looks the target for her.

[Quevega]

She wouldnt lay a glove on Gauloise at 2 miles imo, different species, she didnt fit the profile for the race and I was never considering her for it, I just dont think shes in the same class in any aspect of the 2 mile game, jumping, tactical speed, acceleration, Gauloise is better in every department, at 2m4+ on heavy ground thats a different ball game but ultimately im not convinced that Shewaersitwell is top class, im actually pretty confident she isnt after seeing her driven for dear life to pass Bonarc 2 out at Sligo.

Royal Kahala will no doubt be 2nd favourite, at 2m2 on heavy she maybe has a chance of getting a brief metnion from Gerry Hannon, but Gauloise will leave her standing still and she has no chance of winning at Cheltenham. The 2m4 fairyhouse race looks the target for her.

I like Gauloise also, but Willie has other 5 yr old French horses in the mix.

And after a maiden and listed race win, with little form in behind her.
And fairly average breeding for a NH mare.

Your hyperbole seems to be based on a lot of guesswork, and your own strong opinion.
Full marks for enthusiasm though.
Hope you're right.

[jack1092]

Royal Kahala will no doubt be 2nd favourite, at 2m2 on heavy she maybe has a chance of getting a brief metnion from Gerry Hannon, but Gauloise will leave her standing still and she has no chance of winning at Cheltenham. The 2m4 fairyhouse race looks the target for her.

Firstly, welcome, but i've a feeling you know this site well already..

Royal Kahala isn't even certain to go here anyway, but from what i've seen so far, Gauloise would need to improve a fair bit.