2017 Stayers Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

I'd like some opinions on this actually if people have the time....regarding betting strategies for markets like this one.

My position so far....

I think you're right about Ricci having a runner and after a pretty special Royal Ascot back in June I threw a bit back on Faugheen at 10/1 for the World Hurdle and also had him in a 99/1 treble with Annie and Douvan. My pockets absolutely want Faugheen in this race. I won't get excited about it until much closer, and I am waiting every day for the bubble to burst, because he shouldn't even be considered for this race, let alone turn up and win!

I don't think there is any chance of Annie Power turning up in this race at all. She has been beaten in it, they keep saying she is being aimed at the CH and should try to retain it and last season Mullins said before last year that the World Hurdle is too hard to go for without a prep. (That'd also be a negative for Faugheen at the moment) ... leaving VVM as the obvious candidate. She would be right in the mix with her mares allowance, but having already backed her significantly in the any race market I don't want to back her for this specially...

I have also backed Rawnaq, which will come as no surprise to anyone if they've read this thread ... and that is my biggest stake in this race so far...

I have also been convinced, by some excellent posts on this thread, that Ballyoptic, Jezki, Unowhatimeanharry, Nichols Canyon, Shaneshill and now Yanworth are good bets each way! (My stakes get similar returns based on what prices they were - and some are done in free bets over a period of time)

I'd be interested to know (and will accept any critisim) regarding how people feel about backing more than one (and in this case, 8+ horses) in a race like this... My personal thinking is that I am now in a strong position...because if the current favourite in Faugheen does run, I am already on at a much better price than SP will be, if he doesn't, this market will contract and all of the horses below will contract shorter prices. At the moment, if any horse I mentioned won, I'd be in fairly decent, to excellent profit....

[jono]

Great question Kev, my opinion for what it’s worth;

I couldn’t bring myself to back that many horses in one single race. I’ve seen people who try and cover the entire field at the biggest possible prices so that whatever the outcome they should make a profit. You could then also look at laying the selections that have contracted in price nearer the time to guarantee profit.

I have thought about taking this approach and trying to turn antepost betting into a purely financial outlook but for me I have too much emotion in the sport. Probably the most amount of horses i’d look at backing in a single race is 2 maybe 3 at an absolute push. When i’m at the course in March I want to be cheering on ideally one or a select few horses. The feeling of getting a big fancy price about a horse so far out and counting down the months and weeks seeing the price (hopefully) getting shorter run by run is the main appeal for me. I love trying to crack the puzzle early on, trying to spot where horses are going whilst targets are still undecided and so on. I’m just not sure I could enjoy it anywhere near as much if I knew I had the whole field covered even if it did make me slightly more profit in the long run.
I’d much rather take more lows in losing bets as the highs of getting those winners is what makes it so worthwhile

Now if they are all each way then that is slightly different as it does open up your options in that you could be cheering on 2-3 different horses at the finish and win with them all. Personally I will very rarely do an each way single bet on antepost. The only reason i’d be backing each way is because I feel another/other horses are more likely to win and I think there’s enough risk and varying factors involved betting antepost that I’d hate to just through away the win part of the bet straight off.

At least with this race the field is made up of double figure prices right now so if you were to take this strategy it’s the time to do it.

Yanworth for example at best price 12’s (1/4 odds) would mean you double your money if he places (£5 ew would result in £10 profit for placing) which for me is the lowest ew single price i’d go in on.

Min in the Ankle for me is almost a banker each way (behind Altior ) BUT at 8’s (1/4 odds) would mean you get half your stake as profit (£5 ew would result in £5 profit). Now you could say if i’m so sure that he’ll place (and a chance he may win) profit is profit and if you put say £50 each way on and get a tidy £50 profit but I wouldn’t want to tie up that much money on a bet this far out.

Because of this if I do any each way bets, they tend to be in doubles, lucky 15’s or multiples. Say I did the each way double on those 2 horses at 12/1 and 8/1. £5 ew on this would result in £50 profit for placing so my outlooks i’ve got 5/1 on them both placing and I only have to play with low stakes

[billymag]

Nothing wrong with betting as many horses as you feel offers you value. People have criticised me quite a bit in the past (not on here) for backing multiple horses in races, but Im showing a healthy profit in the races where i have more than one selection. So Im happy that im doing the right thing, so absolutely if the market and selections look right go for it.

[Kevloaf]

billy - thanks, I have a friend who used to critise me for it, we used to have differing opinions on what "value" was... He was always saying "a winner is a winner" and didn't agree that even a losing bet can be a good value bet. I think he has changed his mind now. Do you have any specific 'rules' about races you do it in? Do you do it in different kinds of races? I think I am showing profit from it too, but I don't record the specific races, only the meetings as it stands so I wouldn't have that data to hand for myself - do you keep records like that?

jono - on race day, I will still be in a position whereby my 'fancied' horse wins me the most, even with this many backed. If that means putting more on, I would, because as eluded to, I still want all of the emotion and want my opinions to be fruitful... I absolutely DON'T want to be taking the 'fun' out, to lock in absolute profit in every race that I look at... (sounds strange maybe to some and hard to explain well)?

Ultimately, I want to have my opinions and bet on them, and if I am not losing more money than I can afford over a long period I am going to be content at it. (I am sure people make more money on here than I do, however I am happy and fortunate to have been making what I consider a lovely profit since 1st Jan 2015, when I started recording every bet I made). I have a good friend who has completely taken (what I consider) the 'fun' out of gambling, as he has no opinions, he just bets on something and lays it on Betfair at a slightly better price, (effectively giving himself free bets for small profits) over and over again... he says he enjoys that. That isn't how I want to be...

I think you're also spot on to highlight the profit from each ways. 8/1 isn't 2/1 a place, its even as you nicely highlighted. I wouldn't rule out having an each way single, but it'd need to be a rock solid target and a horse that I couldn't see out of the frame. For this race, I have a few each way and a few to win... Faugheen was just to win, as if he turns up, I expect a huge show, but I wouldn't have wanted to double (or half) my stake when him being a non-runner is such a huge potential.

There should be a betting strategy thread somewhere ...

[Istabraq]

[QUOTE=Kevloaf;28887]I'd be interested to know (and will accept any critisim) regarding how people feel about backing more than one (and in this case, 8+ horses) in a race like this... /QUOTE]

Kev, I often have multiple runners in a race, I draw the line at 4 but often have 2 or 3 in big handicaps, if you think a horse is value then it doesn't matter when you back it so if you like something ante post at 10s and he's 16s on the day then climb in even if you have a full book....

[cwright23]

How do we think ballyoptic would of fared had he stood up? Been pushed out for the world hurdle..

[Istabraq]

How do we think ballyoptic would of fared had he stood up? Been pushed out for the world hurdle..

I think he would have gone very close cwright, he looked to be struggling when they turned the gas on but got going again and was closing with every stride before the tumble, so long as that hasn't dented his confidence there's no reason to panic....

[Kevloaf]

Silsol likely to have been trained for that day and Ballyoptic looked like he would have been grinding away. Will need to keep improving but if he'd have stayed up you can't see him fading away... I suppose it depends how you rate the chances of horses like Lil Rockerfella at 33s?

What was the reason Lil Rockerfella went in the CH and not the WH last season? Can anyone remember... I saw Tom Segal give this horse a good mention (or heard it).

[Istabraq]

5yo Kevloaf, you need your head testing if you run a horse that age in a grueling stayers championship in my opinion.
The one race that's missing at the festival is that intermediate hurdle G1 race, the chasers have the Ryanair but the hurdlers have nothing in between the champion and the world hurdle.
I'm sure they'll address that in due course....

[Kevloaf]

5yo Kevloaf, you need your head testing if you run a horse that age in a grueling stayers championship in my opinion.
The one race that's missing at the festival is that intermediate hurdle G1 race, the chasers have the Ryanair but the hurdlers have nothing in between the champion and the world hurdle.
I'm sure they'll address that in due course....

They've got the Aintree Hurdle for that ... ?

Seen plenty of arguements for and against changing the festival from 3 to 4 (and 5 in the future) and about the intermediate distances (JLT/Ryanair) and I am not throwing my opinions around about that for now

[Faugheen_Machine]

These intermediate distances just give trainers a ready made excuse to avoid another horse. We'd end up with champion hurdles with 4-5 runners. Willie Mullins is a big fan of the idea......I wonder why?!

[Kevloaf]

These intermediate distances just give trainers a ready made excuse to avoid another horse. We'd end up with champion hurdles with 4-5 runners. Willie Mullins is a big fan of the idea......I wonder why?!

Haha, I am absolutely keeping out of this.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Haha, I am absolutely keeping out of this.

[Kevloaf]

Apple's Jade was pushed out to 16-1 from 8-1 for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham by Paddy Power, and Elliott plans to step his filly up in distance on her next start.

He said: "I'm disappointed, but the positive is we haven't had her that long.

"I know she'll come on from the run, but she'll not be winning any Champion Hurdle, that's one thing I will tell you.

"She did jump well, she just looked slow. If you look at those Triumph Hurdle horses over the years, they do want a trip.

"We'll step her up in trip and she'll win loads of races."



25/1 available for the World Hurdle.... quite a few pages back I had my theory about the World Hurdle being the target, looks like I might have struck lucky after today... got to love how honest Gordon Elliott is regarding what he is going to do!

[Istabraq]

At 5 ???
Not for me...