2017 Stayers Hurdle

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd be happy for Mark Walsh to be riding whoever Barry doesn't.

[mayo]

I'd be happy for Mark Walsh to be riding whoever Barry doesn't.

Would get Jezki ride imo but would have though Noel would get back on UKWIMH

[Kevloaf]

Would get Jezki ride imo but would have though Noel would get back on UKWIMH

If he 'picked' Jezki, Jezki would have to shorten in to fav? Might still be some juice in the 8/1 available?

[loveracing]

For some reason I can see the fav getting turned over by a horse with a better turn of foot on the day.

[Kevloaf]

Market is going to look very different on race day than now. Cleeve Hurdle looks interesting and Mullins' VVM is only 7/2 nrnb against UNWIMH 5/2 .... she runs over 3m again soon ... these could flip flop

[Leman14]

For some reason I can see the fav getting turned over by a horse with a better turn of foot on the day.

Jezki...???

[jono]

Some sad news on Rawnaq today, especially as I know Kev and a few others were very keen on him and had some great prices...

The Cheltenham Festival dream is over for connections of Rawnaq after the American-based gelding picked up an injury that will rule him out of the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle.

The Cheltenham Festival dream is over for connections of Rawnaq after the American-based gelding picked up an injury that will rule him out of the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle.

Formerly trained in Ireland by first Robbie Hennessy and then Matthew Smith, the 10-year-old was sold to race on the other side of the Atlantic in 2015 and proved a shrewd acquisition for Irish-born trainer Cyril Murphy and his principal owner Irvin Naylor.

A major victory over the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Shaneshill and Nichols Canyon in the Grade One Calvin Houghland Iroquois Hurdle in Nashville last May made him eligible for a $500,000 bonus if he could complete the Brown Advisory Iroquois Cheltenham Challenge by going on to win the Stayers' Hurdle at Prestbury Park in March.

He made his first start since that success in the American Grand National in October and claimed a narrow victory in the hands of Ruby Walsh.

Rawnaq was beaten on his only subsequent outing in the Colonial Cup the following month, but remained on track for a return to the Festival - where he was third over fences in 2015 - until suffering a setback last week.

Murphy told Press Association Sport: "Unfortunately he's picked up a soft tissue injury and he's not going to make it.

"He was due to ship over on February 3 and arrive on February 4. He was going to be based with Neil Mulholland before running in the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell on February 26.

"We had the plan mapped out, but it's not going to happen now."

With Rawnaq already in the latter stages of his career, Murphy admits the chances of ever seeing Rawnaq in Britain again are remote.

"I think because it has been such a long-term plan it made it that bit harder. We had such a big window for something to go wrong and unfortunately it has," the trainer added.

"It would have been hard enough to get him there this year as a 10-year-old. He's not going to run again this year, so to bring him to England as an 11-year-old would be next to impossible.

"Long-term I think he'll be OK, but time is the only healer and because of what he's achieved already, we're not going to rush him.

"If we can get him back then great, but if we can't, then he'll have a home here forever."

[Faugheen_Machine]

Doh, just as I had a lovely EW double going onto him at 100/1.

[Yeehaa]

Unlucky backers - it was a good left field call

[Zoowraa]

For some reason I can see the fav getting turned over by a horse with a better turn of foot on the day.

Yeah im with you on this. Two favourites I just cant see winning at this stage are Harry and Moon Racer.
Im not really a layer so doubt I will get involved with that, but if I was I would be taking both of these on. Both have run well in defeat written all over them for me.

[Zoowraa]

Had a bit of the 12s on offer for Ballyoptic as could be 7/2 the field after it beats Harry on Saturday. Also , backed it at 4s for Clleve Hurdle with PP

[Istabraq]

If Ballyoptic can stand up he has every chance, he's certainly the e/w play for Sat

[jono]

So another win from UNWIMH at the weekend. I checked oddschecker an hour or so after the race and I was shocked he was still available at 2/1. That's been nibbled in today and now best priced 15/8 which i still think is very big.

Each time the horse runs the more I like him. He oozed class throughout the race (i originally had him down as more guts than class but not now).

Now i'm debating whether to hold off now and wait on the day or go in again?

He's now won the 3 best trails for this race with ease beating all UK challengers several times. So the UK challengers are covered. Onto the Irish - Snow Falcon and Clondaw Warrior I think are below the class to feature in this. Faugheen now is Champion Hurdle or bust in festival targets, and VVM too would surely be Mares with the option of stepping in for Faugheen. All that leaves is Jezki.
Despite their good relationship i would be stunned if Geraghty was to get off this horse now and the more I look at the CH picture I think Jezki will be going there instead.

So take out Jezki, Faugheen (CH or bust), VVM (Mares or CH) and his price will surely get shorter. (even if Jezki ran i'd be with the fav)

I still think Ballyoptic has place claims at 20/1 but if he was ever to beat the fav yesterday was the day, NTD is flying and had already had 2 wins on the card and more importantly for a horse who has had some jumping issues the removal of the last 2 hurdles and the huge run in would have been in his favour

UNWIMH is an absolute certainty for me

(with the forecast of Shaneshill to follow him home )

[Zoowraa]

So another win from UNWIMH at the weekend. I checked oddschecker an hour or so after the race and I was shocked he was still available at 2/1. That's been nibbled in today and now best priced 15/8 which i still think is very big.

Each time the horse runs the more I like him. He oozed class throughout the race (i originally had him down as more guts than class but not now).

Now i'm debating whether to hold off now and wait on the day or go in again?

He's now won the 3 best trails for this race with ease beating all UK challengers several times. So the UK challengers are covered. Onto the Irish - Snow Falcon and Clondaw Warrior I think are below the class to feature in this. Faugheen now is Champion Hurdle or bust in festival targets, and VVM too would surely be Mares with the option of stepping in for Faugheen. All that leaves is Jezki.
Despite their good relationship i would be stunned if Geraghty was to get off this horse now and the more I look at the CH picture I think Jezki will be going there instead.

So take out Jezki, Faugheen (CH or bust), VVM (Mares or CH) and his price will surely get shorter. (even if Jezki ran i'd be with the fav)

I still think Ballyoptic has place claims at 20/1 but if he was ever to beat the fav yesterday was the day, NTD is flying and had already had 2 wins on the card and more importantly for a horse who has had some jumping issues the removal of the last 2 hurdles and the huge run in would have been in his favour

UNWIMH is an absolute certainty for me

(with the forecast of Shaneshill to follow him home )

I was disappointed with Ballyoptic yesterday, I thought he had a lot in his favour yesterday and couldn't really find any excuses . I still suspect this horse has a big performance in it, I just sense NTD really rates this horse and something will click on one day, but the excuses are starting to run out. At the same time, I do wonder if they are riding it a little aggressively and maybe dickie is not the ideal fit for the horse.

As for Harry, I still think something will beat it come the stayers. Taking its form at face value and he should be shorter tha he currently is, but it seems there are a few like me who just can't quite believe the value of it.
The competition is starting to dry up in the UK and main threat may now come from Ireland, but I just have this feeling something will turn in a top performance on the day to deny it.

[Kevloaf]

I think you'd have to make the comparisson with Thistlecrack last year, in that he did absolutely everything he could.

I know you remember Thistlecrack got boosted to 2/1 the weekend before (betfair preview). I think Thistlecrack was general 6/4, 5/4 and even in the weeks before...

I think Thistlecrack looked classier than UNWIMH has if you compared them run-by-run, and the difference in price from Thistlecrack last season to UNWIMH is reflective of that? .....

You are right that he will shorten when targets for others become clear, and he has NOTHING to fear from Ireland (unless Faugheen ran which is unlikely and that is only considering raw ability not prep!).... if VVM did run she would take a chunk out of the market... you'd probably still get 2/1 on the day with her in it?


I won't go in again, but I took 25s the day they declared he was going hurdling... In a few multiples too. FOr me, it is just a sit back, wait for *no news* and hope that things go right on the day... I would go in again now if I wasn't already in a good spot... if that helps?