Aintree Day 2

[FinalFurlong91]

Melling chase

The Big Breakaway 7/1

I thought his run in the RSA was much more like it, he jumped miles better but paid for putting it up to a freak in monkfish at the end.

He runs to that level again I think he will go very close and at 4 times the price of chantry house who won a very poor marsh chase I think that's a decent bet

Struggling to find any other bets really

Hope dusart and Bravemansgame run well for Cheltenham 2022 purposes.

And the marsh chase looks like a very trappy race, id favour fakir but he's 3/1 and doesn't win very often. He also had a very hard race at Cheltenham. May pay to side with one of the Nicholls pair but can't split them at the prices.

[Native River]

Yet to look properly at the card so but done the same trend analysis as yesterday based on those who ran at Chelts and are running, I've condensed it to avoid the novel like yesterdays to make it a bit more digestible, focusing on last 3 years of Aintree runnings:

2m 4f Handicap Hurdle = worth looking at those who ran festival handicap 6 of the top 5 last 3 years have done so, running into a place at Chelts is a plus but not a must. With 12/15 of those finishing top 5 carrying under 11st it means Whatsupwithyou maybe worth a look, or maybe even Strong Glance who has course form.

2m Top Novice Hurdle = those who don't run at the festival do best here, so plus for Dusart who for me does look a good favourite here.

3m Mildmay Novice Chase = The RSA form stands up here usually so Fiddlerontheroof or The Big Breakaway could be good e/w options. The past 2 winners have been horses stepping up from the JLT trip which does then lead you to Chantry House.

2m 4f Melling Chase = Festival form stands up again, usually with those stepping up from the Champion Chase. There isn't really anyone fitting that but Politologue is stepping up in trip of course. The best Cheltenham form is Fakir D'doudaries with his 2nd in the Ryanair, I personally think he's in with a good shout of finally hitting the front and getting a win

2m 5f Topham Chase = some interesting stats I found here. So slightly more of those top 5 each year skipped the festival, this gives plenty of options and I've not looked at the card yet properly to comment on who stands out here. Of those who ran at the Festival you want to avoid anyone who placed as only 1 of the 7 that finished top 5 ran at Cheltenham. Now interestingly on that last stat there are 2 horses that fit the criteria of not placing (using top 5/6 for that definition) and they are The Morning Vicar & Caribean Boy, both running at Chelts just outside the places. Both these horses are Henderson trained who strangely enough has had a horse in 4th place each of the last 3 years! Of the 2 I'm personally a fan of Caribean Boy and will likely back him as I think he ran a nice race in the Plate and Aintree may well suit.

3m Sefton Novices Hurdle = Mix bag here but horses that have been held back for this do well for a place. Henderson's form in last 3 years reads as 2, 1, 1 and he has Gallyhill & Bothwell Bridge running. Gallyhill may be worth a chancing at 10/1 e/w as its clear a lot is thought of him and he should see this 3m out. Last 3 winners have come straight from cheltenham with the last 2 being Santini & Champ, so the quality has risen in this recently, giving a nice nod to Bravemansgame.

2m Conditionals & Ams Hurdle = only 3 of the top 5s over last 3 years went Cheltenham; 3rd - Sternrubin 10th County (down 3lb), 4th - All Set To Go 18th County (down 4lb)
& 1st - Chief Justice 12th Boodles (down 2lb). So all 3 lost a couple of lbs from a bad chelts run. No one in this race had a run as bad as those 3 had at the festival but Leoncavallo does fit this slightly with his 6th in the Pipe, he has since been dropped 2lb for that and considering that was his first race for 160 days he may well strip better for this so worth keeping an eye on.

[Sprinter Sacre]

My only real fancy for the day is Fakir D'Oudaries. If he performs as well as he is capable of that race is his, and 2m 4f seems to be his perfect trip.

[Lobos]

Dusart and Notebook

[Eggs]

.....McCain booked Gainford for Blakeney Point, bit surprised @ 40-1 with 365 on that eye-catching booking alone (25-1 Hills).

[Stormez]

I’ve doubled Blakeney Point based on the jockey booking with Greensalt in the foxhunters as he’s a fair record on the ground.

Pays 5165/1, so I’d be overjoyed just to see them placed!

[archie]

For what it's worth, Mr Leslie is Donald's biggest owner and Theo Gillard is the stable conditional. Derek O'Connor is a good friend of Donald's and probably had second choice.

It's not to say that Blakeney Point can't/won't go well but....

[Eggs]

For what it's worth, Mr Leslie is Donald's biggest owner and Theo Gillard is the stable conditional. Derek O'Connor is a good friend of Donald's and probably had second choice.

It's not to say that Blakeney Point can't/won't go well but....

.....just surprised Gainford is riding for that stable & wasn’t in demand to ride another.

[archie]

Very few Irish trained runners and most UK stables will have their own conditionals that they wouldn't want to jock off. I think that Paul Nicholls is the only other trainer with more than one runner.

[Stormez]

Don’t piss on the bonfire Archie

[Eggs]

Very few Irish trained runners and most UK stables will have their own conditionals that they wouldn't want to jock off. I think that Paul Nicholls is the only other trainer with more than one runner.

...and here was me getting excited. Never mind.

[archie]

Don’t piss on the bonfire Archie

People tend to get carried away and it's my duty as senior pro to keep their feet on the ground.

Gainford is clearly useful but the 7lb claim is a random average and he is prone to mistakes just like any other novice, eg he got boxed in on Eclair De Beaufeu when a well backed favourite. It wasn't the difference between winning and losing but it probably cost connections some prize-money. The main point would be that Theo Gillard is almost certainly on the stable first choice as it stands even though it's perfectly possible that Goobinator ends up finishing behind the other runners from the stable.

[FinalFurlong91]

Added Monte cristo and tronador in the 1:45

both at 11.5 on the machine

[charlie]

Each way selections tomorrow:

Top Novices Hurdle - Do Your Job @ 20/1 EW
Mildmay Novices Chase - Sporting John @ 10/1 EW
Marsh Chase - Itchy Feet @ 20/1 EW
Topham - Sir Jack Yeats @ 25/1 EW
Sefton - Streets Of Doyen @ 8/1 EW

[Istabraq]

Each way selections tomorrow:

Top Novices Hurdle - Do Your Job @ 20/1 EW
Mildmay Novices Chase - Sporting John @ 10/1 EW
Marsh Chase - Itchy Feet @ 20/1 EW
Topham - Sir Jack Yeats @ 25/1 EW
Sefton - Streets Of Doyen @ 8/1 EW

I make Streets of Doyen a proper bet tomorrow just hope the price holds up until the morning as piling in now will flag the account...