Daily Flat Racing Tips

[riccirich]

The ger lyons second string, dress kode, looks a decent price to me in the first at limerick at 16/1. It was a decent run first time out when a staying on sixth of sixteen over 5f behind more beautiful at naas when there was a bit of support for him. He disappointed next time out when well beaten on heavy ground with a 10lb claimer on board. I'd be willing to give him another chance at the price as I don't think the ones who have ran are anything special, and of the newcomers nothing is really jumping off the page on pedigree, the Harrington newcomer that's being backed is bred to be better over a bit further.

[Saxon Warrior]

Isnt the Travers Stakes at the end of August?

It was moved back three weeks to the 8th August to accommodate the Kentucky Derby moving to 4th September, and makes the Travers a route to the Kentucky Derby this year, rather than a race where horses come to, after the Triple Crown races.

Oddschecker can't be trusted on race dates, they messed up the French Oaks date on their website, and currently have the Travers as the 29th August which is the "old" date.

[OverTheLast]

I'm no flat judge by any means but my mate is informing me that Method 2.15 Newbury on Sat is a good bet to put in any multiples for down the line, currently evens most places.

Trained by Martin Meade, ran once winning a 2yo Auction race at Doncaster by 4 1/4 lengths to Fen Rover*. He was slowly out the stalls and showed slight greenness in the early stages but quickly settled and travelled strongly and when hitting the front was really impressive.

*Fen Rover has franked that with a cracking run in last Saturdays group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes finishing a neck 2nd to Dandalla who was a 6l winner of a group 3 at Ascot. There was a few nice horses behind Fen Rover last week too.

The opposition tomorrow doesn't look the strongest and it's quite a weakish Listed race to my eye, so whilst we won't get rich backing Method tomorrow, could certainly be one to help raise the odds on any festival fancies down the line.

[kinloch brae]

It clearly isn't a betting race but given the pedigrees on show the 1.05 at Newbury is the watch race tomorrow.

My five bets go at York and Newbury:-

Eagles By Day EW
Caradoc EW
Que Amore EW
Lady G EW
Summerghand EW

Eagles By Day hasn't backed up the initial impression and as a betting proposition tomorrow is probably the last chance saloon. There is no obvious standout in the race and hopefully, the change of scenery will be a positive. Caradoc is another who hasn't really hit the heights that might have been expected after he bolted up at Chester. In fact on occasions he has looked something of a bookmakers pal. That said it will be very disappointing if he can't finish in the four tomorrow. Que Amoro is 2/3 at the track and should relish the drying ground. Fingers crossed she can cope with the step up in class. Given his abysmal effort in the July Cup I will be throwing bricks at the television if Equilateral wins. Last week he wouldn't have figured at any distance. I think Lady G is twice the price she should be. That maiden form looks better to me than anything Virgin Snow has achieved. Summerghand should already have got his big pay day in the Wokingham. That was just one of many consistent big field handicap runs. Although it is a smaller field he should get enough pace to run at tomorrow. The one thing that stops me bordering on being confident is the jock. Bentley is another member of the weighing room bridle club. Summerghand showed how well he could sustain a run at Ascot so in an ideal scenario the jock needs to find some daylight and start driving from two out. I am sure the last thing connections want is the horse finishing well again without winning.

[Kevloaf]

I might chance Snowy Owl tomorrow in the 4:15 Curragh at 12/1

He was well backed on debut and bombed, but went from 18/1 to 9/1 and went off shorter than the fav for tomorrows race Wembley who went off 10/1 and did ran pretty well to get 3rd.


They're different yards so following the money isn't a clear cut indicator or anything like that, but given they'll BOTH come on for their first run, and this time Snowy Owl is 12/1 and Wembley is Even money, if the market was right right time there isn't a lot between them?




Might be a hair-brained theory there but I remember the race from 3 weeks ago and the market move. I might chance him now with BOG and see if the money comes again, if not I may well cash it out.

Got some fancy entries too which is not a bad sign.


As a side note, I love the name HMS Seahorse in the same race

[Kevloaf]

I might chance Snowy Owl tomorrow in the 4:15 Curragh at 12/1

He was well backed on debut and bombed, but went from 18/1 to 9/1 and went off shorter than the fav for tomorrows race Wembley who went off 10/1 and did ran pretty well to get 3rd.


They're different yards so following the money isn't a clear cut indicator or anything like that, but given they'll BOTH come on for their first run, and this time Snowy Owl is 12/1 and Wembley is Even money, if the market was right right time there isn't a lot between them?




Might be a hair-brained theory there but I remember the race from 3 weeks ago and the market move. I might chance him now with BOG and see if the money comes again, if not I may well cash it out.

Got some fancy entries too which is not a bad sign.


As a side note, I love the name HMS Seahorse in the same race

Woooah, out to 18s with PP so cashed out with 365

Still, the 4:15 is an interesting race... I will wait for the morning now but I reckon I'll end up on something!

[Stormy Antarctic]

1.40 Newbury OUTCAST 11/2

There are a few well bred newcomers in here but I was quite taken by Outcast’s debut where she looked a bit trapped in behind before being pulled wide, she showed a nice turn of foot to make up ground on the leaders to be beaten about 2 1/2 lengths. The form may not be all that great but I think she ran with a deal of promise over course and distance. I hope the experience will stand her in good stead and see her involved.

Not much else floating my boat. I think Ennistymon should be favourite for the Irish oaks.

I’ll have a bet on Caradoc because I like the colours. Should be plenty of extra places with bookies in that race too

Good luck all

[Kevloaf]

Anyone got a strong view on the 3.05 at York?

I like Major Jumbo 7/1 ew and Alpha Delphini 15/2 ew


RP highlights that Major Jumbo is 221 at listed level and Alpha Delphini won the Nunthorpe over CD.


I notice that he was 2nd to Baattash when last seen beaten just as far as the favourite (equilateral) was when they met.


Haven't backed anything yet and won't until the morning but any thoughts are welcome.

[Middle_Of_March]

Anyone got a strong view on the 3.05 at York?

I like Major Jumbo 7/1 ew and Alpha Delphini 15/2 ew


RP highlights that Major Jumbo is 221 at listed level and Alpha Delphini won the Nunthorpe over CD.


I notice that he was 2nd to Baattash when last seen beaten just as far as the favourite (equilateral) was when they met.


Haven't backed anything yet and won't until the morning but any thoughts are welcome.

I’ve had a small bet on El Astronaute @ 4/1. Horse owes me nothing and I pretty much back him every time he runs but these speed track 5f races were made for horses like him and Caspian Prince. The early pace greyhounds of horse racing. As for tomorrow’s race, I was originally tempted with major jumbo but sided with el astronaute and it’s really not a race I want two in. Looks wide open.

To be honest I’m only really properly involved on two tomorrow - Caradoc @ 11/2 (6 places) and The Mighty Gurkha @ 8/1 who may just be the most incredibly big price I’ve seen of the flat season so far. I cannot for the life of me understand how he can be deemed an 8/1 chance. Run the race 9 times and he wins it once? Really? I’d have him 7/2 or 4/1 at this stage with the market vibes around the favourite worth watching.

[YoungHustler]

Anyone got a strong view on the 3.05 at York?

I like Major Jumbo 7/1 ew and Alpha Delphini 15/2 ew


RP highlights that Major Jumbo is 221 at listed level and Alpha Delphini won the Nunthorpe over CD.


I notice that he was 2nd to Baattash when last seen beaten just as far as the favourite (equilateral) was when they met.


Haven't backed anything yet and won't until the morning but any thoughts are welcome.

I've gone for Equilateral as think he is still improving. Ignore his last run over 6f and he'll be suited to the better ground too if there hasn't been too much rain. No doubting Alpha Delhini was a class horse but how fit is he after such a long time off. Major Jumbo has done me some favours in the past but this race is much better than listed IMO.

Some bets of mine this weekend. Apologise for no right ups as in a rush.

Saturday
6.15 Curragh - Romantic Proposal, got on at 12s last night and sea of blue this morning but there are some 8s left and is as short as 9/2.

Sunday
1.55 York - Symbolize
3.05 York - Royal Intervention
4.10 York Documenting

[SharpHat]

Really fancy Passion in the Irish oaks, ran well in last race, vibes are good. Backed it at 14s last night now into 10s. Always like backing one of obriens 'second string'

[Kevloaf]

I might chance Snowy Owl tomorrow in the 4:15 Curragh at 12/1

He was well backed on debut and bombed, but went from 18/1 to 9/1 and went off shorter than the fav for tomorrows race Wembley who went off 10/1 and did ran pretty well to get 3rd.


They're different yards so following the money isn't a clear cut indicator or anything like that, but given they'll BOTH come on for their first run, and this time Snowy Owl is 12/1 and Wembley is Even money, if the market was right right time there isn't a lot between them?




Might be a hair-brained theory there but I remember the race from 3 weeks ago and the market move. I might chance him now with BOG and see if the money comes again, if not I may well cash it out.

Got some fancy entries too which is not a bad sign.


As a side note, I love the name HMS Seahorse in the same race

I'm so interested in this race now and can't really explain why haha.

I can't leave Snowy Owl and HMS Seahorse unbacked at 20/1, but also split stakes and chances the 17/2 e/w for them both without Wembley.

I wasn't expecting Mac Swiney to be the same price as he was on debut either, at 12/1 (and 5/1 without Wembley) he has less than 2L to make up on Wembley and will surely also improve from the run, so with one now odds on I want him onside too.

The 4 horses mentioned all have fancy entries and I can live with it if Wembley wins at that price.




There doesn't seem to be a load of confidence so far behind Cold Steel or Erzindjan on their first runs and the current 2nd fav, Colour Sergeant doesn't really stand out as the main danger as he would need the extra distance to help today but that's factored in to the price already as the bare form isn't that good IMO.


The other two, Kalaroun and Bell Ex One I think will be also-rans.

[Kevloaf]

I’ve had a small bet on El Astronaute @ 4/1. Horse owes me nothing and I pretty much back him every time he runs but these speed track 5f races were made for horses like him and Caspian Prince. The early pace greyhounds of horse racing. As for tomorrow’s race, I was originally tempted with major jumbo but sided with el astronaute and it’s really not a race I want two in. Looks wide open.

To be honest I’m only really properly involved on two tomorrow - Caradoc @ 11/2 (6 places) and The Mighty Gurkha @ 8/1 who may just be the most incredibly big price I’ve seen of the flat season so far. I cannot for the life of me understand how he can be deemed an 8/1 chance. Run the race 9 times and he wins it once? Really? I’d have him 7/2 or 4/1 at this stage with the market vibes around the favourite worth watching.

Al Astronaute was the other I liked too, I've not done anything in the race though and fancy too many to bother with now I think.


Caradoc is now 6/1, 6 places - so that just looks a really solid each way poke. I think Afaak 22/1 (5pl) or 20/1 (6 pl) is a pretty fair bet too. He was 5th in this race previously off 3lb higher, so is handicapped to be in the mix again with a liking for the C&D.

and I know The Mighty Gurkha is one of scooby's today so I have that on side too.

[kinloch brae]

It clearly isn't a betting race but given the pedigrees on show the 1.05 at Newbury is the watch race tomorrow.

My five bets go at York and Newbury:-

Eagles By Day EW
Caradoc EW
Que Amore EW
Lady G EW
Summerghand EW

Eagles By Day hasn't backed up the initial impression and as a betting proposition tomorrow is probably the last chance saloon. There is no obvious standout in the race and hopefully, the change of scenery will be a positive. Caradoc is another who hasn't really hit the heights that might have been expected after he bolted up at Chester. In fact on occasions he has looked something of a bookmakers pal. That said it will be very disappointing if he can't finish in the four tomorrow. Que Amoro is 2/3 at the track and should relish the drying ground. Fingers crossed she can cope with the step up in class. Given his abysmal effort in the July Cup I will be throwing bricks at the television if Equilateral wins. Last week he wouldn't have figured at any distance. I think Lady G is twice the price she should be. That maiden form looks better to me than anything Virgin Snow has achieved. Summerghand should already have got his big pay day in the Wokingham. That was just one of many consistent big field handicap runs. Although it is a smaller field he should get enough pace to run at tomorrow. The one thing that stops me bordering on being confident is the jock. Bentley is another member of the weighing room bridle club. Summerghand showed how well he could sustain a run at Ascot so in an ideal scenario the jock needs to find some daylight and start driving from two out. I am sure the last thing connections want is the horse finishing well again without winning.

Added Passion EW in the Irish Oaks in the belief that she is a stronger stayer than the front two in the market and the hope she will get the freebie she didn't get at Epsom.

[Kevloaf]

I'm no flat judge by any means but my mate is informing me that Method 2.15 Newbury on Sat is a good bet to put in any multiples for down the line, currently evens most places.

Trained by Martin Meade, ran once winning a 2yo Auction race at Doncaster by 4 1/4 lengths to Fen Rover*. He was slowly out the stalls and showed slight greenness in the early stages but quickly settled and travelled strongly and when hitting the front was really impressive.

*Fen Rover has franked that with a cracking run in last Saturdays group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes finishing a neck 2nd to Dandalla who was a 6l winner of a group 3 at Ascot. There was a few nice horses behind Fen Rover last week too.

The opposition tomorrow doesn't look the strongest and it's quite a weakish Listed race to my eye, so whilst we won't get rich backing Method tomorrow, could certainly be one to help raise the odds on any festival fancies down the line.

Well done, hope you have a few live ones now