2025 Champion Hurdle

[Lobos]

Theres plenty being said by various media , so far though the horses have had a say
Im more inclined to take note of the horses!!

Very true that.

[Yosser]

Theres plenty being said by various media , so far though the horses have had a say
Im more inclined to take note of the horses!!

+1

I would bet these pundits have Lossimouth backed for the CH and are searching for any crumb of comfort in the face of the impending doom they will face in March.

[Carnage at Taunton]

+1

I would bet these pundits have Lossimouth backed for the CH and are searching for any crumb of comfort in the face of the impending doom they will face in March.

I have absolutely no issue with the media, after all it’s their job!! And does no harm reading as I could miss something that they spot.
Can’t beat watching the horses and forming my own opinions though.

[Runragged]

Thought I would give my two pennies worth.

Firstly, it was a good display from Constitution Hill. Debatable whether it was Champion Hurdle winning form, but for a horse out for a year with niggly injuries then it was good to see him back on the track and seemed to have plenty of zest about him. I would expect him to benefit and improve for that run and will keep everything crossed that he makes it to Cheltenham as unfortunately that is no given for a horse to have raced just 9 times in 3 years.

As to Lossiemouth. My initial thoughts was that she was outpaced at 2m on a sharp quick track. The pace was reasonable early without being express and this was the first time running at 2m since the International last season (Technically 2m 1f). I would say it is the first time she has gone that kind of early gallop since the Triumph Hurdle two seasons ago when she sat in fifth to begin. That pace was fast/slow/fast/slow and looking back I think it was her class and stamina that saw her win that day. Compare that with a typical Champion Hurdle where the horses are travelling at 30mph+ throughout, only dropping when they jump before getting back up to speed. Now, you then have to decide whether that was the true running of Lossiemouth or was she 'flat'? In my opinion she ran her race in the conditions. Like I said, she hasn't been that speed so early since the Triumph. Could she learn from that? Possibly, though it is also her style to be kept out the back and brought through late on. What I would say from the naked eye is that the distance between CH and Lossie doesn't change in the final 1/4m and the final two hurdles. Therefore I suspect they would have run that final 1/4m in a very similar time. Lossiemouth already had a run in the season and was driven hard to keep in contact with CH. CH was hands and heels wandering into the last until driven and whipped (For use of a better word) to the line.

I could go on with different scenarios but it is all irrelevant until we know who lines up. Lossiemouth going for the Mares instead of this is still unlikely in my view. As someone said, she has got closer to Constitution Hill than anyone else so far, even if we consider CH wasn't at his best and that gives her the right to go Champ Hurdle, even if she may be better at a longer trip. If she was to line up against Constitution Hill then she would be of some interest in the 'without' market or playing the forecast as she could stay on past beaten horses.

[opatcho]

The bet will be backing Lossiemouth for the CH once Stateman wins tomorrow, hoping the bookies push Lossie out a bit more

CH has past his first test, but he will now need to remain fit and healthy for the remainder of the season.

Thinks of a mixture between …

Stateman CH and Lossie mares
Lossie CH and BDA mares
Lossie CH single

hmmmm

Lossie hated the mixture of the ground, track and tempo but she still finished close to CH. A soft - heavy Day 1, I wouldn’t discount Lossiemouth to reserve that result

[Carnage at Taunton]

The bet will be backing Lossiemouth for the CH once Stateman wins tomorrow, hoping the bookies push Lossie out a bit more

CH has past his first test, but he will now need to remain fit and healthy for the remainder of the season.

Thinks of a mixture between …

Stateman CH and Lossie mares
Lossie CH and BDA mares
Lossie CH single

hmmmm

Lossie hated the mixture of the ground, track and tempo but she still finished close to CH. A soft - heavy Day 1, I wouldn’t discount Lossiemouth to reserve that result

Having watched CH in the Sandown mud in the Tolworth I don’t think I would be too hopeful of the ground making much difference. It was pretty soft in his CHurdle win as well. Both occasions he was very impressive.
For me it’s always been about him and where he is now compared to before.
We know he’s back to some sort of decent form, and what we saw may be enough in March, but I suspect by then he will be in better shape, which almost certainly will be enough.
For Lossie, she has to somehow manage to go the pace necessary to give her a chance at the end, and I don’t see that happening at all, it’s not her way of running.
And don’t forget, CH finishes his races very strongly and would be extremely difficult to get past with a lead built up.
She runs like a horse that wants further to
my eyes,and against the best at 2m she’s just not quick enough imo.
I hope and think she will still be aimed at the race, but I do fear the other option until final decs, just because it is a race that suits her best and will be easier for her.

[Quevega]

Having watched CH in the Sandown mud in the Tolworth I don’t think I would be too hopeful of the ground making much difference. It was pretty soft in his CHurdle win as well. Both occasions he was very impressive.
For me it’s always been about him and where he is now compared to before.
We know he’s back to some sort of decent form, and what we saw may be enough in March, but I suspect by then he will be in better shape, which almost certainly will be enough.
For Lossie, she has to somehow manage to go the pace necessary to give her a chance at the end, and I don’t see that happening at all, it’s not her way of running.
And don’t forget, CH finishes his races very strongly and would be extremely difficult to get past with a lead built up.
She runs like a horse that wants further to
my eyes,and against the best at 2m she’s just not quick enough imo.
I hope and think she will still be aimed at the race, but I do fear the other option until final decs, just because it is a race that suits her best and will be easier for her.

She's definitely quick enough.
Just not as quick and strong as Constitution Hill has proven to be.
So I agree what you say to a point, but she'd be clear favourite without him, so your comments about her not being quick enough probably fit every other hurdler in the last 20 years or so.
Constitution Hill, on top form is clearly the best I've ever seen, so crabbing her as needing further and not being quick enough is wrong, in the context of Champion Hurdle credentials.

To add - The Champion hurdle isn't won by the horse with the best top speed, you need stamina also.
Many Champion hurdlers in history have not had the early speed of some of their opponents, but they have the stamina and heart to bust it at the end, when the faster types are crying enough.

And her being caught a bit cold, after having ran at steadier gallops in her previous races is understandable.
The distance beaten was not far off the distance early in the race.
The jockey will have her positioned/prepared better the next day.

[opatcho]

Having watched CH in the Sandown mud in the Tolworth I don’t think I would be too hopeful of the ground making much difference. It was pretty soft in his CHurdle win as well. Both occasions he was very impressive.
For me it’s always been about him and where he is now compared to before.
We know he’s back to some sort of decent form, and what we saw may be enough in March, but I suspect by then he will be in better shape, which almost certainly will be enough.
For Lossie, she has to somehow manage to go the pace necessary to give her a chance at the end, and I don’t see that happening at all, it’s not her way of running.
And don’t forget, CH finishes his races very strongly and would be extremely difficult to get past with a lead built up.
She runs like a horse that wants further to
my eyes,and against the best at 2m she’s just not quick enough imo.
I hope and think she will still be aimed at the race, but I do fear the other option until final decs, just because it is a race that suits her best and will be easier for her.

I just have much confidence that Con Hill will make it through the season, and imaging what may happen to the markets if such news broke

[DenmanSacre]

Both are entitled to be better at Cheltenham. But I just don't think you're going to find a horse that can come from behind CH and beat him. The problem is that the one race where the two fancied ones take it from the front was his best ever performance in the Supreme so how do you actually beat him at his best.

If you are inclined, 7/1 is probably the best e/w leg you'll get this far out for any race at Cheltenham for an e/w miltiple. She will win her next race so will shorten and she will go for the Champion Hurdle.

You should also factor in the risk of CH not making it, him being too brave at his hurdles (he does it every race now and he could come unstuck) and anything else that might pop up in the race (in his Supreme win, he could easily have been brought down by DD for example).

At 8/11 vs 7/1, Lossiemouth is the better bet at this time. If they were the same price on the day, it would be the other way round but CH will likely end up much shorter.

[Mighty]

The issue is that Mullins has said he’ll give Lossie one more go at the Champion Hurdle route, and then if beaten the mares is an option. I don’t see how you can bet that until you know which race she ends up in.

[DenmanSacre]

The issue is that Mullins has said he’ll give Lossie one more go at the Champion Hurdle route, and then if beaten the mares is an option. I don’t see how you can bet that until you know which race she ends up in.

Who else is going to beat her though?

[Wayward Lad]

What price will Constitution Hill be when they go NRNB market?

Apart from todays State Man/BDA impact then technically Denise’s current 1/2 should shorten to 1/3 or 2/7

[Brooksie]

She's definitely quick enough.
Just not as quick and strong as Constitution Hill has proven to be.
So I agree what you say to a point, but she'd be clear favourite without him, so your comments about her not being quick enough probably fit every other hurdler in the last 20 years or so.
Constitution Hill, on top form is clearly the best I've ever seen, so crabbing her as needing further and not being quick enough is wrong, in the context of Champion Hurdle credentials.

To add - The Champion hurdle isn't won by the horse with the best top speed, you need stamina also.
Many Champion hurdlers in history have not had the early speed of some of their opponents, but they have the stamina and heart to bust it at the end, when the faster types are crying enough.

And her being caught a bit cold, after having ran at steadier gallops in her previous races is understandable.
The distance beaten was not far off the distance early in the race.
The jockey will have her positioned/prepared better the next day.

My Tent Or Yours springs to mind here, they could never go quick enough for him. Travelled like the winner in a supreme and champion hurdles but just couldn't sustain his effort up the hill. If ever a horse needed a 12f hurdle race it was him.

[Quevega]

Both are entitled to be better at Cheltenham. But I just don't think you're going to find a horse that can come from behind CH and beat him. The problem is that the one race where the two fancied ones take it from the front was his best ever performance in the Supreme so how do you actually beat him at his best.

If you are inclined, 7/1 is probably the best e/w leg you'll get this far out for any race at Cheltenham for an e/w miltiple. She will win her next race so will shorten and she will go for the Champion Hurdle.

You should also factor in the risk of CH not making it, him being too brave at his hurdles (he does it every race now and he could come unstuck) and anything else that might pop up in the race (in his Supreme win, he could easily have been brought down by DD for example).

At 8/11 vs 7/1, Lossiemouth is the better bet at this time. If they were the same price on the day, it would be the other way round but CH will likely end up much shorter.

Yeah, totally agree.
He's gonna smash his back legs into the top of one at some point, the way he takes off early at some of them. Nico is not really the boss of him IMO. He does most of it himself.

There area few solid each way bets at the minute and Lossie is one of them.
The risk is her getting beat the next day as Willie is almost certain to run her at 2 miles, and I think the Irish Champion (cos of the conditions of the race) would be favourite, so it depends how you think she would fare against State Man. But it's hard to imagine her getting stuffed, and I'd have her ahead of him personally.

Maybe Henderson and the owner could surprise us and send C Hill over. For him to run in anything else would really be beneath him.
Hendo has surprised us this year with his flexibility with Sir Gino, given his age etc, although the bets in the yard comments now make that much more understandable and explain why his price for the arkle never really budged much.

I also think Gaelic Warrior remains value, and his run the other day was decent and his movement right is now just a shift.
Kargese (given her form lines, and assuming all is well) is also a good each way option at 12-1 vs Brighterdaysahead.

[Mighty]

Who else is going to beat her though?

Depends where she goes. If it’s Ireland and the DRF, then State Man, if she goes to the International, then potentially Constitution Hill. Let’s see how State Man runs today - he may strip fitter with a run under his belt at a track he likes.

I’d expect a showdown at the DRF with State Man personally.