2025 Champion Hurdle

[Eggs]

Could be a fascinating renewal, I dare say the stable tours will tell us if Ballyburn is heading this way.

Current odds;
Con Hill 2-1
Lossie 7/2
State Man 5-1
Ballyburn 7-1
Mystical Power 14-1
Sir Gino 14-1

[Lobos]

What price Ballyburn If/when confirmed going CH .......3/1?

[Eggs]

What price Ballyburn If/when confirmed going CH .......3/1?

…I have to think if he goes that route then Mullins must have a decent view of where he stands with State Man and Lossiemouth. It’d seem a bit pointless staying over hurdles if he’s 3rd in the pecking order, so that could be reflected in the price.

[jono]

Right now Ballyburn is a terrible bet for the CH.
And I’d argue he would be even if confirmed staying over hurdles.

I’d be stunned if that happened, if all is well with his stablemates over the next couple of months. In State Man, Lossiemouth and Ballyburn you arguably have 3 of the best 4 horses in the yard. I can’t see anyway they start the season with them all being aimed for the same Spring targets. It just doesn’t happen imo.

Add in the fact that however good he looked last year, he’s a novice stepping up into open company. It’s not even like his Festival win can hold up - that Gallaghers race was shocking.
I’ve got high hopes for him over fences, and he sets the standard from the novices for sure but if he goes into open hurdles, he has it all to prove.

We’ve seen Paul Townend play it safe with his rides over the past few seasons (Lossiemouth on debut an example where he went with the proven Zarak The Brave). IF staying hurdling - there will be opportunity to back Ballyburn against State Man / Lossiemouth and get better prices ultimately for the CH. Throughout the season. One way or another.

And that’s not even touching on Constiution Hill who heads the market and even if you don’t think he’ll be as good again, was arguably one of the greatest hurdlers for what he had achieved in his first 2 seasons.

For me it’s relatively straightforward.

Ballyburn Novice Chasing
State Man CH
Lossiemouth has a season geared around the CH trials but ultimately goes to the Mares

But that aside, the likelihood of any bet this far out (and until much closer to March) on Ballyburn for the CH looking good is dependant on either being very lucky (injuries) or a lot of factors falling into place where the probability of that happening is far greater than what his odds imply and that are being offered.

[Quevega]

Right now Ballyburn is a terrible bet for the CH.
And I’d argue he would be even if confirmed staying over hurdles.

I’d be stunned if that happened, if all is well with his stablemates over the next couple of months. In State Man, Lossiemouth and Ballyburn you arguably have 3 of the best 4 horses in the yard. I can’t see anyway they start the season with them all being aimed for the same Spring targets. It just doesn’t happen imo.

Add in the fact that however good he looked last year, he’s a novice stepping up into open company. It’s not even like his Festival win can hold up - that Gallaghers race was shocking.
I’ve got high hopes for him over fences, and he sets the standard from the novices for sure but if he goes into open hurdles, he has it all to prove.

We’ve seen Paul Townend play it safe with his rides over the past few seasons (Lossiemouth on debut an example where he went with the proven Zarak The Brave). IF staying hurdling - there will be opportunity to back Ballyburn against State Man / Lossiemouth and get better prices ultimately for the CH. Throughout the season. One way or another.

And that’s not even touching on Constiution Hill who heads the market and even if you don’t think he’ll be as good again, was arguably one of the greatest hurdlers for what he had achieved in his first 2 seasons.

For me it’s relatively straightforward.

Ballyburn Novice Chasing
State Man CH
Lossiemouth has a season geared around the CH trials but ultimately goes to the Mares

But that aside, the likelihood of any bet this far out (and until much closer to March) on Ballyburn for the CH looking good is dependant on either being very lucky (injuries) or a lot of factors falling into place where the probability of that happening is far greater than what his odds imply and that are being offered.

I agree on his price and form from last year not quite matching up.

But I would disagree on the thoughts around Lossiemouth and State Man affecting the decision.
I don't really think Willie will consider this factor as much as many on here seem to suggest.

He has form for going in mob handed to attack the grade 1 hurdles as I think he knows that anything can happen and the races are very valuable and very very winnable, and less risky than the grade one chases, especially in Ireland at the moment.

Imagine this scenario ?
Lossiemouth gets beat by State Man in the Morgiana, and Constitution Hill wins the fighting fifth easily ?
He's back to square one.
Now don't get me wrong I expect Lossiemouth to come out later in the year so this might not happen as early, but it could easily turn out that C Hill and State Man are in a match again come March. And assuming the Hill comes back in decent form then he'd be Fav for me.

I also think he is likely to send more over (as others have suggested) to the UK more often and it would make sense to have a go at the grade 1 hurdles over here as there is only one horse to beat and he has had a year off pretty much for one reason and another.

As others have mentioned, he seems to be motivated by breaking records and making history more and more and the lure of this could sway him. And lets face it, if you own a horse and Mullins says he wants to try to emulate Dawn Run, you're hardly going to say NO.

If he decides to have a crack at hurdling with him this year then He might sit and watch the Fighting Fifth and then decide on who to send over. He sent Faugheen over in his first season in open company as he had Hurricane and others for the Irish races. If Ballyburn stays hurdling I think Lossie might be the UK traveller, as they have the back up of the mares if she is outclassed by the Hill.

I have only backed him for the 2 Novice chases though

[Exar Essay]

I recall reading that Lossiemouth’s first race would be The Hattons Grace, and thus a clash with Teahupoo, before taking in the Irish Champion Hurdle. My assumption is that State Man will take in the same calendar as last year and that they’ll clash at the DRF.

I personally don’t see Willie keeping Ballyburn over hurdles. It would mean he’d either end up skipping his novice chase career (highly unlikely) or run in his first GC at 9 (far from ideal).

[jono]

I imagine Mystical Power might be one that travels across at least once for one of the British trials

[IstabraqBarRegular]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Mystical Power run in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, likes the flat tracks

[Lobos]

I recall reading that Lossiemouth’s first race would be The Hattons Grace, and thus a clash with Teahupoo, before taking in the Irish Champion Hurdle. My assumption is that State Man will take in the same calendar as last year and that they’ll clash at the DRF.

I personally don’t see Willie keeping Ballyburn over hurdles. It would mean he’d either end up skipping his novice chase career (highly unlikely) or run in his first GC at 9 (far from ideal).

I reckon Hattons Grace and then the International again before the CH. That way she avoids State Man and Ballyburn before March.

[Quevega]

Yeah, forgot about Mystical Power, I think it's because I'm not convinced he's going to improve anywhere near enough.
But I could easily be wrong for sure and him coming over makes sense.
although if Ballyburn stayed hurdling then the Hattons would fit in nicely for him also.
If the ascot hurdle is still in place then that might be for Lossie followed by the International if they want to avoid CH. Probably depends on the penalties she gets as Willie is good at avoiding them when possible.
Owt could happen

[charlie]

I agree with whats been said re Ballyburn and would add he's by Flemensfirth which screams give me a fence and 2m5f+. Con Hill @ 2/1 is interesting. He'll piss up in the fighting fifth and quickly go even money IMO. We know he has the beating of SM and I don't think Willie will run Lossiemouth in the CH when the Mares Hurdle is there for the taking. Willie pretty much always goes for the lowest hanging fruit plus he is a creature of habit. We had to wait until Jan to see Lossiemouth because he wanted to bring her on slowly. I appreciate that a lot to do with that was not overdoing it with a horse at 4 going on 5, but, I think he'll follow the same path. If something happened to Con Hill then he'd switch but there is a world apart from the campaign she had last year and going into open company in the 2m division. She'd most likely have to start proper work now with a view to taking in 3 Grade 1's pre Cheltenham which is a lot of racing. I appreciate what I am saying flys directly in the face of what was said post mares win (which is below so people have the full picture) but I think there is a tendency for trainers to get carried away post race and get lost in the euphoria. Once the dust settles and they talk it through I think she'll end up in the mares but would caveat that by saying the CH division would be so much better if they did go down that route will her as we want to see the best vs the best and I think she's mustard - so I hope I am wrong. That being said, she wouldn't lay a glove on peak Con Hill IMO.

Lossiemouth is a Champion Hurdle mare, I think. Once again, Paul was just so cool on her. She can improve, she can go on, a year older, running like that in that ground, the way she jumps, she's got everything. We made the right decision [not to run her in the Champion Hurdle], end of story, because she didn't get a grueller in the Champion Hurdle. She won as comfortable as she liked, she's only five, and getting a grueller in the Champion Hurdle as a five-year-old mare isn't what you should do with them. She'll be trained for Punchestown, and then I'll chat to Rich and Susannah and I imagine the Champion Hurdle

[Quevega]

Henderson in fine form I see at his stable open day. Proper fighting talk with his State Man comments.
How can he not have the self awareness to not realise how that comes across to most racing fans ?
Fingers crossed he takes this verbal bombast into his actions in the coming season.

[darlojim]

Henderson in fine form I see at his stable open day. Proper fighting talk with his State Man comments.
How can he not have the self awareness to not realise how that comes across to most racing fans ?
Fingers crossed he takes this verbal bombast into his actions in the coming season.

Careful Q, you'll get the Hendo Barmy Army after ya

He should concentrate on getting his string to the biggest festival of the year instead of spouting shite tho

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Henderson in fine form I see at his stable open day. Proper fighting talk with his State Man comments.
How can he not have the self awareness to not realise how that comes across to most racing fans ?
Fingers crossed he takes this verbal bombast into his actions in the coming season.

Was there anything of genuine interest Q or was it just the usual vagaries?

[Odin]

Was there anything of genuine interest Q or was it just the usual vagaries?

“He could still be at the same level as he has shown. Does he have to get any better? No, he doesn’t. I could tell you that because Luccia was only beaten three and a half lengths in the Champion Hurdle. With all respect to her, I know where Constitution Hill would have finished if she is the benchmark.

“We know her, I know what she can and can’t do, but it tells me that if those two [State Man and Irish Point] can beat her by three and a half lengths then Constitution Hill would’ve been back in his box having dinner by the time they finished because he’s that far ahead of her. It was bad luck that we couldn't go.”



Of course, the problem is that Luccia categorically isn't the benchmark and horses only have to beat the opposition. State Man just did what he had to do on the day, and that's the way he was ridden as well...