2025 Novice Chasers

[Kevloaf]

Yeah I understand that, but that's barely a stride and a half. Man O War had a 28ft stride at full gallop.

So the faster you're going between fences will still mean a quicker jump on average.
The speed lost is more on the landing side and how they shape over the fence, and organise their landing feet etc.
Although with some poor jumpers or tired horses it is obvious they are slowing on the approach.

So if he was going faster towards the fences and losing less time than he was when he was going slower towards them, that's a good thing for an Arkle type

That's my takeaway .... when they went faster, he jumped faster, therefore lost less time relatively at each fence .... which is good for if he was going faster on average over shorter

[Kevloaf]

….IEP;


“He was class. He jumped brilliant, he got a bit lackadaisical in the middle of it but when I opened him up at the back of the second-last, he took off,” said Townend.

“He had a great jump at the last and did everything I wanted him to do. He stood off when I wanted him and was good at getting in. I’m very happy.

“He was quick over the first couple and popped away when I wanted him then. When I lit him up at the back of the second-last, he took off.

“He went to sleep on me after jumping the two out of Ballyhack and I was happy enough not to light him up that far out.

“I was hoping when I did he would come alive and he did – mustard.”

Did he say Mustard?

I'm sure I watched the interview hahaha

Oh was that ITV?

[darlojim]

Well never but he would have done if the JLT didn't exist potentially

Un De Sceaux and Yorkhill season, Yorkhill could have been saved for Aintree



Obviously unknown factors but the landscape has changed and you're not acknowledging it as a factor?

I just have it as one of Willies throwaway comments

We'll see

One of us will be wrong

[Eggs]

….bit of a mixed reaction for IEP, BV push him out to 25-1 BANC whilst PP cut to 16s. Best price 16-1 Ark.

….BV have now cut to 16-1 BANC.

[Quevega]

So if he was going faster towards the fences and losing less time than he was when he was going slower towards them, that's a good thing for an Arkle type

That's my takeaway .... when they went faster, he jumped faster, therefore lost less time relatively at each fence .... which is good for if he was going faster on average over shorter

I prefer a curry.

The point is, which I'm certain you realise.
Is if you're going slower into a fence then you're hardly going to be faster over it (using the metrics they use) than if your'e going faster into it.

I lose time on the speed bumps on my estate, but not as much when I do 30mph over them.

I do understand that some horses attack fences more than others though and think this is the takeaway.
He has clearly been impressively efficient with his jumping when asked to quicken.

Hope for arkle backers (not me) if Paul feeds this back to Willie.
They might try him over shorter next.

[Kevloaf]

I just have it as one of Willies throwaway comments

We'll see

One of us will be wrong

The track will do the talking - I cna't be wrong, I haven't made the black or white statement.... I'm just saying it's possible he doesn't, not that he won't

[FinalFurlong91]

It's very hard to tell in these novice chases when they hack around but I certainly didn't watch either ballyburn or impaire et passe and think they jumped like arkle horses

Impaire looked capable of a quicker jump than ballyburn though

Ballyburn is a 3 miler to me. A relentless galloper. As he matures he will just get slower i reckon ala galopin.

Of the two I'd say a strongly run arkle would suit impaire better. He has that cruising speed, they both do tbf, but impaire has better acceleration

But we really need to see them jumping in a proper race to form a concrete opinion.

if they take on inthepocket/Firefox level horses next time we will learn a lot more.

[Brooksie]

with the turners now being a handicap I get the sneaking suspicion IEP will just head to Aintree, especially if its for me impresses over shorter and IEP gets found out when upped in grade over 3.

[Kevloaf]

It's very hard to tell in these novice chases when they hack around but I certainly didn't watch either ballyburn or impaire et passe and think they jumped like arkle horses

Impaire looked capable of a quicker jump than ballyburn though

Ballyburn is a 3 miler to me. A relentless galloper. As he matures he will just get slower i reckon ala galopin.

Of the two I'd say a strongly run arkle would suit impaire better. He has that cruising speed, they both do tbf, but impaire has better acceleration

But we really need to see them jumping in a proper race to form a concrete opinion.

if they take on inthepocket/Firefox level horses next time we will learn a lot more.

Yep, some good clashes .... 'semi finals' if you like

[FinalFurlong91]

Yep, some good clashes .... 'semi finals' if you like

It would make sense to me for Willie to run ballyburn and impaire against each other over 2 miles next

Winner goes Irish arkle/arkle
Loser goes 2m5f at drf/banc

But I doubt that happens, it'd be too easy for us antepost punters to figure out and Willie doesn't like to do that.

[Carnage at Taunton]

At the moment Bally looks a stayer to me and IEP stuck between 2 and 3m as far as Cheltenham goes, he could do with being born a year earlier!!

Next races should tell us more.

[Kevloaf]

It would make sense to me for Willie to run ballyburn and impaire against each other over 2 miles next

Winner goes Irish arkle/arkle
Loser goes 2m5f at drf/banc

But I doubt that happens, it'd be too easy for us antepost punters to figure out and Willie doesn't like to do that.

I think he'll have better horses (Dancing City) for the BANC regardless tbh

We'll see!


GOod if they do clash ...

[Lobos]

All depends on what else Willie has for the two races come March but my guy says he'll skip the Fez.

[Quevega]

pp and betfair gone 20-1 arkle now

[Ice]

All depends on what else Willie has for the two races come March but my guy says he'll skip the Fez.

Whose your guy Lobos !? Or is it your gut saying he'll skip the fez !?