2025, The Odds on Offer

[Bollinger]

16’s was beautiful value.

I thought 12 months out he was exceptional value at 16’s.

It’s where he’s heading.

I’d love to know the last horse that 10 months out from an intended target of a King George was 2/1 very clear favourite and 10 weeks later 16/1 for his next intended target.

There won’t be many ricks like that a bookie makes as an ante post liability.

[riccirich]

16’s was beautiful value.

I thought 12 months out he was exceptional value at 16’s.

It’s where he’s heading.

I’d love to know the last horse that 10 months out from an intended target of a King George was 2/1 very clear favourite and 10 weeks later 16/1 for his next intended target.

There won’t be many ricks like that a bookie makes as an ante post liability.

16s was value, as he's obviously shortened, and likely will continue to.

But just on the horse himself, I haven't seen it mentioned much that the form of his Kempton run was let down by Hermes Allen next time. He was 15 lengths down on nickle back when tragedy struck. It was over half a mile less which may not have suited him as well as the 3m at Kempton, but it's definitely enough to cast doubt on how good Il est Francais actually is imo.

[Bollinger]

16s was value, as he's obviously shortened, and likely will continue to.

But just on the horse himself, I haven't seen it mentioned much that the form of his Kempton run was let down by Hermes Allen next time. He was 15 lengths down on nickle back when tragedy struck. It was over half a mile less which may not have suited him as well as the 3m at Kempton, but it's definitely enough to cast doubt on how good Il est Francais actually is imo.

I thought when the trainer Noel George said last week (about Il Est Francais) - ‘If he went to Cheltenham & Aintree, he’d probably win them both….’ was fairly telling in terms of the huge confidence he has that this horse might be very special.

[FinalFurlong91]

His next start is over 3m6f isn't it

He hasn't a hope of staying that far does he?

Will need a great ride to get him to settle well enough to get home over that far

[Quevega]

I thought when the trainer Noel George said last week (about Il Est Francais) - ‘If he went to Cheltenham & Aintree, he’d probably win them both….’ was fairly telling in terms of the huge confidence he has that this horse might be very special.

There's something a bit hollow about the trainer's comments on Cheltenham & Aintree though, don't you think ?

If Henderson came out and said Constitution Hill would win at Dublin and Punchestown he'd get shouted down and I'd be first in the queue. Not because he's wrong, but because he's wrong to say it and not back it up.

And Ricci is right, the form in behind him at Kempton has not exactly been franked to the extent that he's definitely as good as he looked, although I suspect he might be.

[Rooster Booster]

There's something a bit hollow about the trainer's comments on Cheltenham & Aintree though, don't you think ?

If Henderson came out and said Constitution Hill would win at Dublin and Punchestown he'd get shouted down and I'd be first in the queue. Not because he's wrong, but because he's wrong to say it and not back it up.

And Ricci is right, the form in behind him at Kempton has not exactly been franked to the extent that he's definitely as good as he looked, although I suspect he might be.

I don’t see it as hollow. I see it more as a dig to superior brits who think our racing is far superior and connections should run over here for prestige rather than in France for money.

[Quevega]

I don’t see it as hollow. I see it more as a dig to superior brits who think our racing is far superior and connections should run over here for prestige rather than in France for money.

That's not what he said though.
He said that he'd win if they ran him.
Which is fine but he's not going to run, so Meh !

Who are these superior brits by the way Are they deluded ?
I'm a brit and think we're bang average at the minute at racing horses. Compared to our main competitors over the Irish sea.

Prestige vs Money in Sport is a very tricky discussion.
I think being more liberal minded I'd go with Prestige mostly, but would have very little problems with those that go for the money - although I don't think this completely applies in this scenario.

I've no issue with them not running here whatsoever, just the comments seem pretty pointless, and he perhaps should be cautious not to get too carried away.
I like to see trainers talk like that about their horses, but not hypothetically.

[Odin]

His next start is over 3m6f isn't it

He hasn't a hope of staying that far does he?

Will need a great ride to get him to settle well enough to get home over that far

And if he doesn't win, they've openly spoken about wanting to win the French gold cup and king George more than any other races. I know Cheltenham has been mentioned, but it seems secondary to those two objectives.

16/1 was a good price though when you compare it to the likely price of fact to file or stay away fay if they win the RSA. I'll guess 4/1 FTF and 6/1 fay if either scenario happens

[Rooster Booster]

That's not what he said though.
He said that he'd win if they ran him.
Which is fine but he's not going to run, so Meh !

Who are these superior brits by the way Are they deluded ?
I'm a brit and think we're bang average at the minute at racing horses. Compared to our main competitors over the Irish sea.

Prestige vs Money in Sport is a very tricky discussion.
I think being more liberal minded I'd go with Prestige mostly, but would have very little problems with those that go for the money - although I don't think this completely applies in this scenario.

I've no issue with them not running here whatsoever, just the comments seem pretty pointless, and he perhaps should be cautious not to get too carried away.
I like to see trainers talk like that about their horses, but not hypothetically.

I know what he said. I have just interpreted the message different to you.

If someone involved in international racing read your post I suspect even the phrase ‘I have no issue’ could be seen as a British punter claiming a significance that they simply don’t have. Us brits use phrases like this (and perhaps he should be’) a lot and from working abroad a great deal I can confirm we are not liked for it. I know as a Brit it’s harmless, meaningless and automatic to use this kind of language but to others it makes us sound self important.

We use this kind of language in the media all the time and the racing industry in Britain is rife with it and that will not be lost on other racing countries.

As a Brit abroad I suspect he is very sensitive to hearing us talk over here about how they should run in our more prestigious races rather than the inferior French races for more money.

Just like we talk at a national level like we are still an important nation in the world because of our past we are still labelling races as prestigious despite the patently obvious decline in depth and quality. Prestige means very little unless it’s backed up with here and now substance and our substance is disappearing quicker than our desire to cling on to the spurious notion of prestige.

[Eggs]

….i distinctly remember flagging up Ladbrokes offering GDC GC 20-1 at about this time in his novice season. That was popular and worked out well.

Regarding F2F, PP did offer 33-1 BANC/GC (now 12-1) and SAF BANC/GC is currently 50-1. Ladbrokes offer 25-1 SAF to win next years GC, F2F is only 8-1.

[Quevega]

I know what he said. I have just interpreted the message different to you.

If someone involved in international racing read your post I suspect even the phrase ‘I have no issue’ could be seen as a British punter claiming a significance that they simply don’t have. Us brits use phrases like this (and perhaps he should be’) a lot and from working abroad a great deal I can confirm we are not liked for it. I know as a Brit it’s harmless, meaningless and automatic to use this kind of language but to others it makes us sound self important.

We use this kind of language in the media all the time and the racing industry in Britain is rife with it and that will not be lost on other racing countries.

As a Brit abroad I suspect he is very sensitive to hearing us talk over here about how they should run in our more prestigious races rather than the inferior French races for more money.

Just like we talk at a national level like we are still an important nation in the world because of our past we are still labelling races as prestigious despite the patently obvious decline in depth and quality. Prestige means very little unless it’s backed up with here and now substance and our substance is disappearing quicker than our desire to cling on to the spurious notion of prestige.

Whilst I understand what you're saying.
And I'm certainly no fan of jingoism at any level. So any sniff of that from myself would likely be unconscious and/or misinterpreted.
I'm much more of a Planet type of guy and a Human race fan. And I fully expect you weren't suggesting anything different and making a general observation

But it's probably also typically British and a little ignorant to not appreciate that the exact same sort of attitude and language exists in every Country on the planet, apart from maybe Canada

They just might be based around different topics.

Probably why there are not many Fish and Chip shops in France.

[Rooster Booster]

Whilst I understand what you're saying.
And I'm certainly no fan of jingoism at any level. So any sniff of that from myself would likely be unconscious and/or misinterpreted.
I'm much more of a Planet type of guy and a Human race fan. And I fully expect you weren't suggesting anything different and making a general observation

But it's probably also typically British and a little ignorant to not appreciate that the exact same sort of attitude and language exists in every Country on the planet, apart from maybe Canada

They just might be based around different topics.

Probably why there are not many Fish and Chip shops in France.

Absolutely wasn’t aimed at you, quite the opposite in fact otherwise I would not have posted so directly if that makes sense. . Yes very much a general observation, I didn’t make that clear enough I’m sorry.

Yes I understand the irony although I have noticed differences in language used in other countries. That said often the language used is iron fist velvet glove stuff and you are right to point out that we are far from unique, we just make it more obvious and as a consequence are easier to judge

[Quevega]

Absolutely wasn’t aimed at you, quite the opposite in fact otherwise I would not have posted so directly if that makes sense. . Yes very much a general observation, I didn’t make that clear enough I’m sorry.

Yes I understand the irony although I have noticed differences in language used in other countries. That said often the language used is iron fist velvet glove stuff and you are right to point out that we are far from unique, we just make it more obvious and as a consequence are easier to judge

I actually changed it from "certain" to "fully expect" to not sound too presumptuous.
I prefer to be direct as you know.

Pomposity is more than likely higher up in the British psyche than in other nations for sure, but they're all catching on fast (see, can't help it can I ?)

[Rooster Booster]

I actually changed it from "certain" to "fully expect" to not sound too presumptuous.
I prefer to be direct as you know.

Pomposity is more than likely higher up in the British psyche than in other nations for sure, but they're all catching on fast (see, can't help it can I ?)

It’s in our dna

[Bollinger]

….i distinctly remember flagging up Ladbrokes offering GDC GC 20-1 at about this time in his novice season. That was popular and worked out well.

Regarding F2F, PP did offer 33-1 BANC/GC (now 12-1) and SAF BANC/GC is currently 50-1. Ladbrokes offer 25-1 SAF to win next years GC, F2F is only 8-1.

And he was 33’s a few months prior to that