2025, The Odds on Offer

[Bollinger]

It’s only on Ladbrokes website Mighty.

Frank Hickey. PP’s right hand man and chief odds compiler was asked on Tuesday (20/2/24 - available on YouTube) to compile odds for just a couple of horses for next year. 4/1 was his (he confessed he haven’t spent a great deal of time on it, admittedly) early suggestion.

I think the 16’s, as an investment, is beautiful value.

If a horse that’s 2/1 for a King George wins by 5 lengths (hypothesizing, but possible), your 16/1 twelve months out will be sitting at no more than 3/1, 7/2 regardless of Galopin Des Champs efforts hence forth.

[Istabraq]

Thanks for that Ista, very interesting observations, and well articulated.

I would say though that though you feel there is no value whatsoever with the aforementioned prices for 2025, and personally as a punter who solely bets on Cheltenham many months in advance, i would highlight one of the selections which immediately caught my eye, and which also (available on Paddy Power’s most recent online video on YouTube) ascertained my thoughts.

Il Est Francais to win the 2025 Gold Cup - 16/1

For me, it’s an exceptional stand out price.

Firstly, the trainer has just about confirmed that if all things go well, your race target has been highlighted, and underlined.

Secondly, the King George has been confirmed as a race he will be running in. He’s 2/1 for that, and we know for sure he loves racing there.

Before I watched the Paddy Power video, I had a price in my mind for Il Est Francais for the Gold Cup 2025 right now, which was around 8/1 to 10/1 conservatively.

And then Paddy Power’s chief odds compiler Frank Hickey priced him up for next year’s Gold Cup - 4/1, right now, present moment.

Personsally, I wouldn’t be taking the 4/1 he was offering.

But that 16/1 as a 12 month investment, for me, is the absolute, without question, a stand out value price for 2025.

To assess value you need to understand risk, you will no doubt understand this.

The horse has had 3 chase starts, he was incredibly impressive at Kempton in a good ground 3m chase on a flat right handed track, what he would face in a Gold Cup is a world away from that.
He has the look of a horse who could be a star but beat 3 UK horses at Kempton, arguably the best staying novice these shores has to offer is Stay Away Fay who wasn't there and there's an army of Irish horses who could be better, plus the already established brigade.

Of all the prices that were highlighted the 16/1 you mention is probably the most reasonable, still no value to me but the best of a bad bunch....

[Eggs]

Where’s that price Bollinger? I can’t see it on the PP app.

….the prices I posted are with Lads.

[Bollinger]

To assess value you need to understand risk, you will no doubt understand this.

The horse has had 3 chase starts, he was incredibly impressive at Kempton in a good ground 3m chase on a flat right handed track, what he would face in a Gold Cup is a world away from that.
He has the look of a horse who could be a star but beat 3 UK horses at Kempton, arguably the best staying novice these shores has to offer is Stay Away Fay who wasn't there and there's an army of Irish horses who could be better, plus the already established brigade.

Of all the prices that were highlighted the 16/1 you mention is probably the most reasonable, still no value to me but the best of a bad bunch....

How would you assess the price of Con’ Hill to win both the ‘24 & ‘25 Champion Hurdles ??

5/4 with PP.

1/3 for this year’s

But 4x unlikely to back it up next year, at those odds.

Do you think 5/4, taking all the variables into consideration, and the luxury of NRMB not being assigned here, is value, or not.

Nailed on for this year, but odds against as a ‘related contingency’ bet.

I’ve been trying to assess this 5/4 for a few weeks now - and still can’t quite work out it’s value.

[Istabraq]

How would you assess the price of Con’ Hill to win both the ‘24 & ‘25 Champion Hurdles ??

5/4 with PP.

1/3 for this year’s

But 4x unlikely to back it up next year, at those odds.

Do you think 5/4, taking all the variables into consideration, and the luxury of NRMB not being assigned here, is value, or not.

Nailed on for this year, but odds against as a ‘related contingency’ bet.

I’ve been trying to assess this 5/4 for a few weeks now - and still can’t quite work out it’s value.

I'd say 5/4 is OK, I'd expect it to be a shade of odds on.
The risk really centres around the chase discussion rearing up again, we know he's half a stone (or more) better than State Man and I can't believe any of this years novices will be threatening his crown in open company.
Is there a comparison market, win this years champion hurdle and any race 2025 ?
I'd happily play this at around 4/7.
It's all academic for me as I don't have access to these markets and I can't believe you'd get much on anyway, but best of luck if you can...

[Bollinger]

I'd say 5/4 is OK, I'd expect it to be a shade of odds on.
The risk really centres around the chase discussion rearing up again, we know he's half a stone (or more) better than State Man and I can't believe any of this years novices will be threatening his crown in open company.
Is there a comparison market, win this years champion hurdle and any race 2025 ?
I'd happily play this at around 4/7.
It's all academic for me as I don't have access to these markets and I can't believe you'd get much on anyway, but best of luck if you can...

I sincerely believe the ‘Chase discussion’ has been parked in the bin signposted ‘Chase discussion for Con’ Hill’???

I fully appreciate there were no online internet discussions in these former eras, but was there ever a mooted chat as to whether Hurricane Fly or Istabraq would go chasing after being dual Champ hurdle winners? I mean, I wouldn’t know for sure, but would hugely doubt it.

Con Hill can only (if winning this year’s Champ Hurdle) be racing at Cheltenham in 2025 in the Champion Hurdle? Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but I really couldn’t see any reason he wouldn’t??

[HesTheOne]

What price would you make a horse to show up sound in 12 months time?

Am sure someone has done the hard yards on this one before

[HesTheOne]

I sincerely believe the ‘Chase discussion’ has been parked in the bin signposted ‘Chase discussion for Con’ Hill’???

I fully appreciate there were no online internet discussions in these former eras, but was there ever a mooted chat as to whether Hurricane Fly or Istabraq would go chasing after being dual Champ hurdle winners? I mean, I wouldn’t know for sure, but would hugely doubt it.

Con Hill can only (if winning this year’s Champ Hurdle) be racing at Cheltenham in 2025 in the Champion Hurdle? Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but I really couldn’t see any reason he wouldn’t??

Yea no way he goes chasing after skipping it this year. Be on for the treble.

Can only see chasing perhaps coming into it if he is beat in March - which seams rather unlikely

[Istabraq]

What price would you make a horse to show up sound in 12 months time?

Am sure someone has done the hard yards on this one before

archie believes this to 50%, probably a fair estimate...

[Bollinger]

archie believes this to 50%, probably a fair estimate...

Are we suggesting that if for example 300 horses run at this year’s festival, only 150 of these will be available for 2025??

An extremely far fetched estimate. The very large majority of horses (importantly, that are good enough) run annually at the festival for a period of at least 4-5 years. Yes, there are injuries. But I would suggest it’s more like a 20% or less chance that any given horse won’t make it to the following year’s festival due to injury.

[Istabraq]

I sincerely believe the ‘Chase discussion’ has been parked in the bin signposted ‘Chase discussion for Con’ Hill’???

I fully appreciate there were no online internet discussions in these former eras, but was there ever a mooted chat as to whether Hurricane Fly or Istabraq would go chasing after being dual Champ hurdle winners? I mean, I wouldn’t know for sure, but would hugely doubt it.

Con Hill can only (if winning this year’s Champ Hurdle) be racing at Cheltenham in 2025 in the Champion Hurdle? Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but I really couldn’t see any reason he wouldn’t??

I tend to agree but it won't stop the chat, media hype and no doubt Hendo adding fuel to the fire in endless interviews.
I've said for a long time there is a snobery in NH racing towards chasers when, for me, some of the best horses in history have been hurdlers, Istabraq, Sea Pigeon, See You Then, Hattons Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War all triple winners and of course Big Bucks in the stayers division although he was a failed chaser).
There always seems to a push for the good ones to go chasing, a champion hurdle is no less a prize than a champion chase for me...

[Bollinger]

I remember a couple of years ago someone saying here they’d worked out it was an evens money chance that any horse would make it to the next year’s festival.

It would be very short odds on, I’d be very confident of that.

If Con Hill wins this years’s Champ Hurdle by 6 plus lengths, and go’s 4/7 straight away for next year’s edition, message me and I’ll take the evens money instead - and no need to worry if he just turns up and finishies last.

Come on ‘He’s the One’, evens money for any horse to make it to the following year’s festival would be the steal of the century.

[Istabraq]

Are we suggesting that if for example 300 horses run at this year’s festival, only 150 of these will be available for 2025??

An extremely far fetched estimate. The very large majority of horses (importantly, that are good enough) run annually at the festival for a period of at least 4-5 years. Yes, there are injuries. But I would suggest it’s more like a 20% or less chance that any given horse won’t make it to the following year’s festival due to injury.

There are currently 62 horses listed in the Out of Festival thread.
2023 there were 58

This thread only captures the ante post casualties, non runners in the week are not listed so not unreasonable to assume 75 horses don't line up, this also doesn't capture every horse in training so some will get missed.
I think archie's 50% is fair...

[Bollinger]

I hope when all those very average ex Caldwell Construction horses like ex F’il Dor & Pied Piper were going in excess of 500k a few weeks ago, nobody was looking up the ‘50%’ stat. That’s a hell of a lot of money to pay up front for ultmately handicap prize money going forwards and then you’re wondering if it’s 50/50 they’ll be making it for next year, or 2027 hence after.

[Eggs]

….Ladbrokes;

Lossie CH 6-1
F2F GC 8-1
Sir Gino Ark 8-1 (was 20-1)
Bally Ark 10-1
Jade de G MH 12-1
MN CC 12-1
BDA MH 16-1
Il Est Francais GC 16-1
SAF GC 25-1
FV Ry 33-1

….Ile est Francais GC now 10-1 (from 16-1).