2025, The Odds on Offer

[Eggs]

I can hear you saying, ‘steady on Eggs’, but in the search for ever decreasing value we will see the start of specific 2025 offers so might as well have a thread to pop them in.

[Eggs]

….Ladbrokes;

Lossie CH 6-1
F2F GC 8-1
Sir Gino Ark 8-1 (was 20-1)
Bally Ark 10-1
Jade de G MH 12-1
MN CC 12-1
BDA MH 16-1
Il Est Francais GC 16-1
SAF GC 25-1
FV Ry 33-1

[Eggs]

…Coral;

Ashroe Diamond MC 8-1

[Exar Essay]

…Coral;

Ashroe Diamond MC 8-1

Just a word of warning, and I can't find the quote, but I'm sure connections said she'd be retiring to the breeding shed this summer.

[robith]

….Ladbrokes;

Lossie CH 6-1
F2F GC 8-1
Sir Gino Ark 8-1 (was 20-1)
Bally Ark 10-1
Jade de G MH 12-1
MN CC 12-1
BDA MH 16-1
Il Est Francais GC 16-1
SAF GC 25-1
FV Ry 33-1

Is it just me or does that F2F price absolutely honk?

[FinalFurlong91]

Is it just me or does that F2F price absolutely honk?

I'd say they pretty much all do

Which is no surprise

[Evesham Road]

I suppose if you think that 3/1 for ll Est Francais to win this year's King George is value then you might look at the 16/1 for the Gold Cup in the same way...?

Similarly, if Facile Vega is making appeal at 5s in the Turners this year, then 33s for the Ryanair might look OK?

[Istabraq]

Is it just me or does that F2F price absolutely honk?

None of them scream value at me !....

[Eggs]

Is it just me or does that F2F price absolutely honk?

….yep, I dare say the odd one might appeal. Lads did offer Sir Gino @ 20-1 Ark which was popular when highlighted.

Probably also worth considering these in comparison to TWAF offers, F2F has been 33-1 BANC/GC, Jade 25-1 MNH/MH.

[Benjy23]

Similarly, if Facile Vega is making appeal at 5s in the Turners this year, then 33s for the Ryanair might look OK?

That's probably one of the better ones to be honest. Even if he doesn't run in Turners this year you'd think he'd step up next year. And no obvious intermediate trip chase start is there, novice or otherwise.

It's not enough for me this far out personally but actually makes more appeal than the rest!

[Bollinger]

None of them scream value at me !....

Just out of interest Ista, and I absolutely appreciate the word ‘value’ is perceived completely differently from one person to the next, what prices as a liability for next year’s Gold Cup would you be pricing up Fact to File & Il Est Francais right now, just a touch over 12 months out, with everything we’ve seen from the 2 horses thus far, and every tiny quote we’ve heard from both trainers regarding next year’s Gold Cup??

How would you price them up at this moment, with all the information you have (and perceive to have). if I may kindly ask, and your thoughts behind what you’d be offering as your liability??

I’d be intrigued as to your thoughts.

[Eggs]

…..interesting Ile est Francais was on offer at 16-1 KG/GC Ladbrokes last month, they now offer 16-1 GC alone.

[Istabraq]

How would you price them up at this moment, with all the information you have (and perceive to have). if I may kindly ask, and your thoughts behind what you’d be offering as your liability??

.

One of the issues I have with ante post markets is the percentage bookies take up, while there's a healthy Gallopin des Champs around everything else will likely to be too short, chance are the first full market to hit us will run at around 200%, which has to be unacceptable.
If GDC hacks up this year he could be sub 2/1 for 2025, nothing should then have a 10%+ chance of winning after him.
I'd say 20/1 for the pair may be reasonable, 8/1 Fact to File is laughable...

[Bollinger]

One of the issues I have with ante post markets is the percentage bookies take up, while there's a healthy Gallopin des Champs around everything else will likely to be too short, chance are the first full market to hit us will run at around 200%, which has to be unacceptable.
If GDC hacks up this year he could be sub 2/1 for 2025, nothing should then have a 10%+ chance of winning after him.
I'd say 20/1 for the pair may be reasonable, 8/1 Fact to File is laughable...

Thanks for that Ista, very interesting observations, and well articulated.

I would say though that though you feel there is no value whatsoever with the aforementioned prices for 2025, and personally as a punter who solely bets on Cheltenham many months in advance, i would highlight one of the selections which immediately caught my eye, and which also (available on Paddy Power’s most recent online video on YouTube) ascertained my thoughts.

Il Est Francais to win the 2025 Gold Cup - 16/1

For me, it’s an exceptional stand out price.

Firstly, the trainer has just about confirmed that if all things go well, your race target has been highlighted, and underlined.

Secondly, the King George has been confirmed as a race he will be running in. He’s 2/1 for that, and we know for sure he loves racing there.

Before I watched the Paddy Power video, I had a price in my mind for Il Est Francais for the Gold Cup 2025 right now, which was around 8/1 to 10/1 conservatively.

And then Paddy Power’s chief odds compiler Frank Hickey priced him up for next year’s Gold Cup - 4/1, right now, present moment.

Personsally, I wouldn’t be taking the 4/1 he was offering.

But that 16/1 as a 12 month investment, for me, is the absolute, without question, a stand out value price for 2025.

[Mighty]

Where’s that price Bollinger? I can’t see it on the PP app.