2024 Novice Chasers

[JackieMoon33]

The counter to this would be that the only horse to tread this route for Willie, and skip a novice hurdle campaign, did step up to 3 miles.

True but it’s such a rare occurrence that I don’t think you can use that as a stat or trend to be fair.

[JackieMoon33]

I agree with this but he keeps using the term ‘staying chaser’ to describe him but doesn’t reference the BA. I’m not quite sure how to interpret this. What do you think?

Willie has mentioned all sorts of conflicting comments in his stable tours so it’s hard to pin much down. We know Fact To File is a stayer but he’s not devoid of speed as the only horse to go past him last season was a flat bred. I’d say Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File are likely to be Willies best novice chasers and I think he’ll try and split them if that pans out. He’s also sent ‘staying’ types to the Turners before and been successful.

[Exar Essay]

That's definitely an important point and he may very well have it all mapped out now to follow that same route with fact to file, my one worry with that would be that it was so long ago that it's a bit harder to take that as a good guide compared to if it was something he'd done in the past few years.

The late 90s were vastly different times for Mullins yard compared to now when it comes to firepower. Back then he would have had a small amount of runners good enough to travel, and would have been thinking "which race gives this horse the best chance of winning". Whereas now it's a lot more complicated trying to separate all his runners, and my point would be that it's fairly rare that a champion bumper 2nd NEEDS three miles the following season, so if he has other runners for the BANC I don't think FTF would have any problem with the turners, and possibly even the arkle depending how well he jumps.

I completely agree that it's nothing to be going on really. I also don't think it to be a trend to follow. But neither do I think the bumper/novice hurdle trends much to go on. The jury is out here as to where he ends up.

There are two things making me lean very slightly towards BANC at the moment though. Firstly, his debut in the 2m4f bumper over Christmas where he needed every yard. You could say that was educational as he did seem to pick up slightly better at Leopardstown and then at Cheltenham, but it does make me think he'd stay 3 miles nicely. Secondly, and this is tenuous, Corbetts Cross has come in for sustained support in the Turners and has drifted in the BANC in the last few days, and there is a chance that JP at least tries to keep the two separate.

[JackieMoon33]

Assuming he proves good enough, I think the Fact To File target debate will be one that will rumble on over the season similar to some of the many Supreme vs Ballymore conflicts over the years.

[Lobos]

Fact to File is 5/1 TWAR. Takes away the pain.

[JackieMoon33]

Fact to File is 5/1 TWAR. Takes away the pain.

And the fun/value

[Craigy14]

Fact to File is 5/1 TWAR. Takes away the pain.

Backing both races is more profitable than TWAR though Lobos given how poor his price is imo.

14/1 BANC.
16/1 (can also be boosted to 17/1) Turners.

2P best return including stake 18P, worst case 15P.
2P at 5/1 gets you 12P.

[Lobos]

Backing both races is more profitable than TWAR though Lobos given how poor his price is imo.

14/1 BANC.
16/1 (can also be boosted to 17/1) Turners.

2P best return including stake 18P, worst case 15P.
2P at 5/1 gets you 12P.

Can you get out in time though ?? That's the danger. Whatever suits you though.

[Benjy23]

Can you get out in time though ?? That's the danger. Whatever suits you though.

You don't need to get out. Unless he goes NHC or reverts to hurdling I guess.

[Lobos]

You don't need to get out. Unless he goes NHC or reverts to hurdling I guess.

Yep. The beauty of TWAR. Covers all angles.

[ComplyOrDie]

One that probably isn't on anyones radar yet is Martator of Venetia Williams, starts off in a handicap chase off 124 on Sunday due to a few below par runs over hurdles since joining her, but prior to that was a 71kg (156) rated animal in France, chasing home the likes of Thelme and Hermes Baie, but he was a winner of a listed hurdle himself at Compiegne.

We know the French hurdles are more like small fences and I think, provided he is fully wound up, could be chucked in off 124. 2m is probably a little on the sharp side for him, and he'll improve for a step up in trip for sure, so I'm hoping this isn't just a pipe opener, but he's one to keep an eye on, even with a view to the festival, likely a handicap down the line.

[Craigy14]

Can you get out in time though ?? That's the danger. Whatever suits you though.

Get out of what?

I’d say with a great deal of confidence he isn’t going to the NHC and I’d also say reverting back to hurdles seems a stretch. He’s a ptp winner so it would have given them some insight to how he may handle the bigger obstacles.

[Lobos]

Get out of what?

I’d say with a great deal of confidence he isn’t going to the NHC and I’d also say reverting back to hurdles seems a stretch. He’s a ptp winner so it would have given them some insight to how he may handle the bigger obstacles.

Yep. You are most likely correct.

[FinalFurlong91]

Sandor clegane declared for a 2 mile chase on Monday at Wexford

Seems a strange trip to start him over to me

[Kautostar]

Sandor clegane declared for a 2 mile chase on Monday at Wexford

Seems a strange trip to start him over to me

Teaching him to jump at pace, all about educating him for the one big day