2024 Novice Chasers

[Rooster Booster]

Rooster Booster good post and I agree with your observations on different personalities. I would add surely the stock they have to run and the personalities we see are correlated.

Mullins definitely does a Z-A plan for his many of his stars we see that in the tour just can’t expect everything to be laid out when there is so many variables for that yard.

On the point in question, if Nicholls ran Closutton I don’t think we’d get any more antepost direction when you’ve 5, 6, or 7 grade 1 chasers to plan for with the added aim of avoiding each other.

I wrote out a long reply and decided not to post as 1) I pave bored folks enough I suspect and 2) I don’t want to hijack this thread any more than I already have . Maybe I’ll expand on the general chat thread soon ….needless to say the hypothetical of what would the landscape look like if in parallel universes both pn and Willie had the same horses is a fascinating hypothetical indeed.

[nortonscoin200]

Great stuff Rooster Booster

[Rooster Booster]

Great stuff Rooster Booster

Thank you nortons

[Hardy Eustace]

It’s actually a lot more down to the vastly different personality types they have. I have mentioned this a number of times before in an attempt to help manage people’s expectations but I am failing miserably i think but I am happy to give it another go.

PN is VERY structured, strategic, planful. He has very clear thought processes driven by strong logic and reason. He is pragmatic almost to a fault and highly analytical. When he uses these strengths he can see paths very clearly and help others to see these pathways too.

This allows him to build long term plans and help others execute on those plans. We have seen him do this successfully many times and as punters we would be wise to take note when he lays out these plans and we see these plans successfully start to unfold in front of us. This has been, is and always will be a winning strategy for him, it is where he is at his best and there is nobody better at this imo. Dan Skelton has learnt this and we see similar traits in him.

What he may not be as good as is being spontaneous and reactive. He is not great at letting things emerge and building emerging plans rather than longer term ones. Often he comes across as being quite obstinate and stubborn and I see this frustrating this forum from time to time. If he was not like this we wouldn’t have his strengths either. A way to look at it …He is a Z to A person . He starts at Z (say the king George for bravemansgame) and he works back from there and he will if you like stubbornly stick to that plan even if it seems to others that he is ignoring opportunities that emerge along the way or making sub optimal short term decisions.

WM is much more intuitive, spontaneous, he has a sort of strategic thought process but it is emerging strategy and not planful strategy. He operates in the world of possibilities, he considers many different options and understands the importance of reacting and responding to new data points if, as, and when they emerge. In his mind very little is certain or fixed until all the data points have been considered. This helps him reach his Z by reacting and responding with flexibility and deftness to any and every new data point that emerges. This is what makes Willie the genius that he is. There is nobody better imo at using new and emerging data points and changing paths if necessary.

Because we on FJ are looking to make financial investments as early as possible we are looking for something as close to certainty as early as we can get it. This is not something we should expect or even want WM to do. When he is at his best he allows his natural strengths of embracing possibilities, open mindedness and his emerging elements to dominate. When he fights these instincts he can get a little dogmatic about a horse (typically when he is invested emotionally) and this is when he can make sub optimal decisions imo. The more we want him to be certain and precise the more we will stifle all the things that make him the genius that he is.

We have to embrace these strengths that make these individuals true greats in their chosen fields. The next time we get frustrated by PNs stubbornness or lack of flexibility or refusal to deviate from the clear path he has set down for his better horses we should remind ourselves that if he wasn’t like this he would be half the trainer he is now.

The next time Willie does our head in by changing his mind for the 12th time we need to remind ourselves that no matter how frustrating that is for us as long term investors, if he listened to us and gave us the certainty we crave he would be far less successful.

There is so much more to this than I have put but I’ve likely bored you enough already , but perhaps as a starter this may be useful to some I hope.

Brilliant post.

What will be interesting is, for me in this years SL tour Willie suggests Cheltenham races for more horses than he usually does (to my memory at least)

I wonder how many in March will match up to his original assessment in October. Which on sportinglife are name checked as:

Appreciate it - Ryanair
blue lord - CC
dinoblue - mares chase
dysart Dynamo - CC (if he doesn’t settle)
El Fab - CC (of course)
Sir G - Ryanair / GC ( or stayers if doesn't jump)
EIR - mares H
Gala M - mares H
IEP - CH
Lossie - MH
SM - CH
Facile Vega - names arkle but relaxed about further
Gaelic Warrior - BANC (stayers plan b)
grangeclare west - BANC
Mister Policeman - Arkle
Ballyburn- a Ballymore type
Redemption Day - supreme
Tullyhill - Bally / AB (naming AB as a target in October?!)
Salvator Mundi- a triumph type

Can’t wait to find out.

[Benjy23]

They clearly think Mister Policeman is a class act at home, based on being disappointed by his run at the end of last season!

Mentions of hurdles being an option is a tiny bit concerning though. Even with the conversations above, it's not like he's said that for many others in similar positions.

[HoldenTheReins]

Going to be interesting to see how Giovinco goes over 2m4f today

[BigChaang]

I wrote out a long reply and decided not to post as 1) I pave bored folks enough I suspect and 2) I don’t want to hijack this thread any more than I already have . Maybe I’ll expand on the general chat thread soon ….needless to say the hypothetical of what would the landscape look like if in parallel universes both pn and Willie had the same horses is a fascinating hypothetical indeed.

Not Boring at all Rooster Booster , Interesting Read . .

[Nwfb89]

Just spotted inthepocket is entered in a beginners chase at wexford Monday over 2m, he's 20s for arkle with a couple of firms, have many people on here got him onside for the arkle? Or is he more of a turners prospect?

[Kautostar]

Just spotted inthepocket is entered in a beginners chase at wexford Monday over 2m, he's 20s for arkle with a couple of firms, have many people on here got him onside for the arkle? Or is he more of a turners prospect?

Everyone seems to think turners but Henry looks short on Arkle runners and jp McManus has at least another three that could go to the turners. 8/1 TWAR with hills is how I would play it.

[Atlantic Viking]

Giovinco had threatened to do that at a couple of fences. Shame, was going nicely generally.

[HoldenTheReins]

Giovinco had threatened to do that at a couple of fences. Shame, was going nicely generally.

Looks a lovely scopey horse. He'll learn from that.

[Craigy14]

Hard to tell what the outcome would have been, novicey overreach but jumped pretty well in the main.

Funny Ahoy Senor fell at the same track on chase debut.

[OverTheLast]

As good as a beginners chase you are likely to see in England this season

[Quevega]

As good as a beginners chase you are likely to see in England this season

Which is quite sad.

[Kautostar]

Looked to take a misstep to me just before the fence he unseated at. Too early to say if he would have won, I thought he was going nicely at the time and just looking to make his move which was unfortunate. Should learn from it and get a clean round in next time