September ‘23 Yankee

[darlojim]

It’s a bit of a wise guy destination
Been guilty of bets like this every season but it’s low percentage I reckon.
Going for 3 champions has to be the goal. Don’t happen often.

Absolutely this. There's almost a zero chance he meets El Fabiolo prior to the festival, therefore he will very likely have an easy time of it in the Hilly Way and I can see Hendo dodging the clarence house with Jonbon if Energ comes across for it.

If the unlikely scenario is that he is beaten by something vastly inferior prior, then you would have to questioning his ability at his age at that point.

[nortonscoin200]

It’s a bit of a wise guy destination
Been guilty of bets like this every season but it’s low percentage I reckon.
Going for 3 champions has to be the goal. Don’t happen often.

Paul Townend has ridden Energumene in 11 of his 12 chases.

He’s also ridden El Fabiolo in all but one of his 6 races for Willie.

So if Allaho doesn’t recapture his former sparkle (likely imo) and - as the market suggests - El Fabiolo arrives at the Festival a hot favourite for the CC what’s going to happen?

Paul will presumably pick El Fabiolo and make it clear he’d like to ride Energumene in the Ryanair.

Is Willie likely to say: No, I’d rather they lock horns in the CC even if it means the stable wins one championship race rather than two.

I don’t think so.

And given that scenario, the owner is going to find it very difficult to pass up the chance of another big Festival win with Paul in the saddle when the likelihood is he is looking at second at best in the CC.

I’m prepared to accept I may be reading the tea leaves totally wrong but to my mind Energumene running in the Ryanair is a logical choice for owner, trainer and Paul IF it becomes clear Allaho is not going to be the force of old and El Fab looks the top dog at 2 miles over the winter.

And if Energumene runs in the Ryanair what price will he start?

Surely it’ll be less than one fifth of his current odds at best. Maybe considerably less.

It was Spectre who -as far as I’m aware - first raised the possibility on FJ of Energumene ending up in the Ryanair. I hadn’t even considered it but it does seem such an obvious move.

We’re talking about a horse who won his first ever chase by 18 lengths on heavy ground at Gowran Park over 2 miles 4 furlongs- the only time he’s run over the trip.

After that race Willie said: “Paul said he wouldn’t mind going back in trip but he could easily go up in trip as he has a nice relaxed way of galloping.”

[knockando]

As far as I can see - don't think we have had Gerri Colombe in any yankees yet which would be my shout for the GC.

I know GDC is (for obvious reasons) most people's fancy on here. With improvement this season, I do think Gerri will deffo be a player and on my shortlist for GC though. Granted - 7s isn't a great price for a yankee this far out, but if it's just about finding winners this month () - then that would be my suggestion. Only takes GDC niggle / injury for it all to be blown apart...

[Captain Chris]

Absolutely this. There's almost a zero chance he meets El Fabiolo prior to the festival, therefore he will very likely have an easy time of it in the Hilly Way and I can see Hendo dodging the clarence house with Jonbon if Energ comes across for it.

If the unlikely scenario is that he is beaten by something vastly inferior prior, then you would have to questioning his ability at his age at that point.

I'm in the questioning his ability at this age camp. He's a brilliant champion chaser but the chinks in his armour are starting to show. Being beaten by Editeur de Gite and Edwardstone last year and almost being done by Chacun have put enough doubts in my mind. I think the point made about Townend wanting to ride him and El Fabiolo is valid and it'll be fascinating to see how it ends up

[Kautostar]

Whether you’re for or against energumene there’s one thing for sure …..he’s far too risky for the Yankee at this stage.

[Lobos]

At the price for small stakes potential high return, Energumene is the proverbial no brainer bet in the Ryanair. I can't argue with that.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Whether you’re for or against energumene there’s one thing for sure …..he’s far too risky for the Yankee at this stage.

Absolutely.
Personally I would be looking at 4 horses e/w at double figure prices that are pretty certain to run in a specific race.
BMG is proven and will run in GC.
Maries Rock is confirmed for Stayers and fair price imo.
Envoi Allen proven and pretty certain to go Ryanair.
Just need 1 more…. Stay Away Fay maybe?
That would do me.

[Exar Essay]

Absolutely.
Personally I would be looking at 4 horses e/w at double figure prices that are pretty certain to run in a specific race.
BMG is proven and will run in GC.
Maries Rock is confirmed for Stayers and fair price imo.
Envoi Allen proven and pretty certain to go Ryanair.
Just need 1 more…. Stay Away Fay maybe?
That would do me.

I'd be keen for a stayers horse. Just not sure which yet. I think 31 of 46 winners since 1977 have been aged 6 or 7 so perhaps a younger horse than Marie's Rock. Irish point might be held back for Aintree given's comments re his preference for a midtrip. So maybe Gaelic (short enough) or Teahupoo (12s seems fair).

[Quevega]

Paul Townend has ridden Energumene in 11 of his 12 chases.

He’s also ridden El Fabiolo in all but one of his 6 races for Willie.

So if Allaho doesn’t recapture his former sparkle (likely imo) and - as the market suggests - El Fabiolo arrives at the Festival a hot favourite for the CC what’s going to happen?

Paul will presumably pick El Fabiolo and make it clear he’d like to ride Energumene in the Ryanair.

Is Willie likely to say: No, I’d rather they lock horns in the CC even if it means the stable wins one championship race rather than two.

I don’t think so.

And given that scenario, the owner is going to find it very difficult to pass up the chance of another big Festival win with Paul in the saddle when the likelihood is he is looking at second at best in the CC.

I’m prepared to accept I may be reading the tea leaves totally wrong but to my mind Energumene running in the Ryanair is a logical choice for owner, trainer and Paul IF it becomes clear Allaho is not going to be the force of old and El Fab looks the top dog at 2 miles over the winter.

And if Energumene runs in the Ryanair what price will he start?

Surely it’ll be less than one fifth of his current odds at best. Maybe considerably less.

It was Spectre who -as far as I’m aware - first raised the possibility on FJ of Energumene ending up in the Ryanair. I hadn’t even considered it but it does seem such an obvious move.

We’re talking about a horse who won his first ever chase by 18 lengths on heavy ground at Gowran Park over 2 miles 4 furlongs- the only time he’s run over the trip.

After that race Willie said: “Paul said he wouldn’t mind going back in trip but he could easily go up in trip as he has a nice relaxed way of galloping.”

I agree with a lot of this and with spectre's original thoughts on it. There are scenarios and pathways to it actually happening for sure.
And of course the price is worth a small stake for those that can afford to lose it.

I think I'd be more inclined to put a big NRNB related double on when available, then it's a double whammy, as you'd get a likely decent price for him in the Ryanair and more importantly a likely better price on El Fabiolo (if Energumene did defect for some reason)

I just think it's probably a little speculative at this stage for a yankee, and possibly one for the over thinkers, and believe you me, I'm the best at that one.
The wiseguy bet is one of my worst habits and whilst every now and then things fall into place and you feel smug as a bug, the vast majority of the time it goes the more expected/simplistic way.

However, I still like to do it, cos when it does work out it's worth it for ego purposes , even if not for the pocket overall.

[Istabraq]

The whole Energumene debate only exists because they've created a mid trip race in the Ryanair, 20 years ago he would 100% have gone Champion Chase or stayed at home.
It's a race that suits some horses and the quality of winners/performances are unquestionably G1 standard so its' presence is justified, but like the Turners in the novice division it dilutes the established 2m and 3m G1 events....

[Captain Chris]

Looking at a couple of the comments above, I think an "each way" Yankee is personal choice. I'm happy to go win only this far out even if 4 bigger priced horses are selected.

Also like following the stats, sorry, so a younger up and coming type in the Stayer's appeals. Gaelic Warrior and Teahupoo tick the boxes and are the only 2 that appeal at this stage.

On a similar theme, and taking on "dodgy" favourites, the Mare's Hurdle seems like a good one to have a go at. I can't be having juveniles as favourites for open grade 1s so would happily oppose Lossiemouth. 7 year olds have a really good record in the race (6/9) and those that look likely types are Ashroe Diamond, Kateira and You Wear It Well. I'm not entirely sure what the plan is with YWIW, but she'd be a great bet if confirmed hurdling. Ashroe Diamond's form looks strong though. The Royal Bond was a top race, full of grade 1 horses and she ran well at the DRF when looking a non trier. Easily won the big grade 1 at Fairyhouse to round off the season and, although the price isn't anything special, I think she could be worth having in one of these yankees.

[Captain Chris]

The whole Energumene debate only exists because they've created a mid trip race in the Ryanair, 20 years ago he would 100% have gone Champion Chase or stayed at home.
It's a race that suits some horses and the quality of winners/performances are unquestionably G1 standard so its' presence is justified, but like the Turners in the novice division it dilutes the established 2m and 3m G1 events....

Bin it off ASAP/move it to the November meeting as the British John Durkan equivalent and ideal prep for the King George. There just aren't enough high class horses to justify a Turners, Ryanair and even Ballymore these days

[FinalFurlong91]

Allaho put in 2 of the best recent Cheltenham performances in the Ryanair

It's more than worth it's place

If we are trimming races it'd be some way down my list

[Joleg]

If, as MoM has alluded to, we are looking at a win Yankee, and if we are looking at using the Gold Cup as one of the choices, surely it has to be GDC or nothing

[Captain Chris]

Allaho put in 2 of the best recent Cheltenham performances in the Ryanair

It's more than worth it's place

If we are trimming races it'd be some way down my list

He basically ran around on his own against a bunch of grade 2 horses whilst the best duelled it out in Gold Cups and Champion Chases.

It wouldn't be top of my list to get rid of, but it'd be quite high