April 2023 Yankee

[Eggs]

Start of a new month, start of thoughts on selections for Middle_Of_March to consider.

With Punchestown Festival 25th-29th April, some might think it could be worth waiting for that to inform choices.

[Middle_Of_March]

Good man Eggs. Have to imagine the Aintree and Punchestown festivals will be of huge importance for these.

We could go for an ‘eye catchers’ theme from the two festivals. Either horses that enhance their Cheltenham claims in defeat or win well at either of the two meetings. That’s what 8m thinking for this month but let’s see if it’s popular or hated as an idea first before confirming.

[Always a Claimer]

Good man Eggs. Have to imagine the Aintree and Punchestown festivals will be of huge importance for these.

We could go for an ‘eye catchers’ theme from the two festivals. Either horses that enhance their Cheltenham claims in defeat or win well at either of the two meetings. That’s what 8m thinking for this month but let’s see if it’s popular or hated as an idea first before confirming.

I like the running well in defeat angle as this will likely hold up the price, and there will be a few that are no doubt “over the top” or just aren’t flat track bullies and need that hill.

[callhimgamblor]

May well regret saying this but I'm kind of glad I waited until later today/this week to put my Stay Away Fay bet on for Festival '24 as I think he will be beaten today.and go out a bit (hopefully) so I can get a bit more value.

[HesTheOne]

I like the running well in defeat angle as this will likely hold up the price, and there will be a few that are no doubt “over the top” or just aren’t flat track bullies and need that hill.

Yea i'd agree going with this angle rather than picking winners from Aintree, Lobos pointed out a good stat from the last 2 years or so Aintree winners who went on to win at Chelt were few and far between. Punchestown am not to sure what the trends say in that regard.

+ there's a bit more fun finding a nugget in defeat than simply picking the winners

[Captain Chris]

Really like the idea of this. Quick flick through the Aintree results this morning highlighted 1 main one for me
Stay Away Fay BANC - 1 novice hurdle and then gone 2nd, 1st, 4th in grade 2/1 events. Cheltenham festival winner and now backed that up with a really solid run at Aintree. 16s feels very fair with Bet365.

A mention for Kateira/You Wear It Well Mare's Hurdle - First big race for Kateira and she ran a cracker, beating a lot of good horses. I struggle to fancy any of the juveniles to step up next year, but respect Love Envoi and Ashroe Diamond at the top of the market. 20s is probably a bit shorter than I was hoping for, so haven't backed her and will wait and see what they do in the Autumn. YWIW ran well enough considering she was probably over the top. Jumping the path on the far side isn't a great sign, yet she was still in there around the home turn and finished 5th. Mare's Novice Hurdle winners have a good record in the Mare's Hurdle (Concertista 2nd in a photo, Telmesomethingirl brought down when going well and Love Envoi 2nd to a wondermare).

A final mention, stating the bleeding obvious, but wherever Marine Nationale goes next year he'll be at the top of my list. His form was franked by Inthepocket, Fennor Cross and Irish Point at the meeting as well as Ashroe Diamond last weekend. I think he's beaten 6 grade 1 winners this season, which feels very impressive.

[Lobos]

Waiting to pounce on a decent TWAR price on Marine Nationale. Will we get to be though ? I'd settle for 3's as he's only likely to go for 2 races

[Odin]

Waiting to pounce on a decent TWAR price on Marine Nationale. Will we get to be though ? I'd settle for 3's as he's only likely to go for 2 races

You might be better off taking the prices you can get now on those two races I think?

8/1 365, 7/1 hills for the CHurdle 5/1 coral/paddy, 4/1 hills for the Arkle

A point win on both would give you minimum 3/1 return for arkle but 5 or 6/1 return for CHurdle I think?

[Lobos]

You might be better off taking the prices you can get now on those two races I think?

8/1 365, 7/1 hills for the CHurdle 5/1 coral/paddy, 4/1 hills for the Arkle

A point win on both would give you minimum 3/1 return for arkle but 5 or 6/1 return for CHurdle I think?

But 2pts at 3's TWAR if he goes Arkle would give a better return. TWAR the way to go. No hassle at all.

[Odin]

But 2pts at 3's TWAR if he goes Arkle would give a better return. TWAR the way to go. No hassle at all.

Yeah fair point

[Black Dog]

Waiting to pounce on a decent TWAR price on Marine Nationale. Will we get to be though ? I'd settle for 3's as he's only likely to go for 2 races

3/1 AR with Skybet Lobos.

[Lobos]

3/1 AR with Skybet Lobos.

Thankyou. I'll hang on a bit to see if Hills can better that. 3's is what I thought he might be though.

[Eggs]

Thankyou. I'll hang on a bit to see if Hills can better that. 3's is what I thought he might be though.

….not sure Hills are doing an a/r market this year.

MN entered to run next week at Punchestown, if you think he’ll win then I expect there’ll be ‘win today’ prices that trump those currently on offer. Certainly worth a look at.

[Lobos]

….not sure Hills are doing an a/r market this year.

MN entered to run next week at Punchestown, if you think he’ll win then I expect there’ll be ‘win today’ prices that trump those currently on offer. Certainly worth a look at.

Hills will do it soon I expect. Agree though, win at Punch and AR or individual races at Fez could be attractive.

[RufusFlynn]

Case for one at a bigger price: Saint Roi - Ryanair - available at around 50's

Can see him being a bit similar to Fakir D'oudairies in that he may often find one too good at the top level but the Ryanair often attracts animals that are perhaps slightly below top level with the big guns going either QM or Gold Cup.

I thought he ran a good race last week, only being beaten 1.5 lengths by a horse that was fresh having missed Cheltenham. It was also his first try at the longer trip.

Jonbon stayed at the min trip and as someone else mentioned on another thread, Nicky does tend to keep them at the min until beaten meaning Saint Roi in the same colours could step up next year. If he starts out next season in the John Durkan a la Janidil then this would seem an obvious route and i don't think the 50's will be around then.

Solid place opportunity at a big price IMO.