April 2023 Yankee

[Saxon Warrior]

My post Aintree and Punchestown End of Season present thoughts.

Now up on my Diary


https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...615#post421615

My four from Punchestown are as per my Diary

Impervious - Ryanair
Dinoblue - MaresCH
Ballyburn - Ballymore
Gaelic Warrior - Stayers

unless any of their prices have been punctured too much since I posted, and I need to sub in my Fairyhouse eyecatcher

Nick Rockett - BANC

Instead

Maybe on reflection I should put all 5 in a Canadian/Super Yankee instead

Now that's an idea

[BuckingThe Trend]

Saxon - are you not worried about Dinoblue being raced only over 2 miles over fences ? Other than that I really like the Super Yankee idea.

[Middle_Of_March]

Have really struggled to find a fourth horse this month so I’ve taken a bit of a flier based on on something on the final day of the month (so perhaps was too late to get a deserved nomination). Lossiemouth for the Mares Hurdle appears to be the plan for Mullins. She looks a top class juvenile and the Mares Hurdle most years is weak (this year is the exception but even then a few of those won’t run next year in Honeysuckle and Marie’s Rock for example). I know it’s harder for the juveniles to step up to open company but most years they are horses rather than mares and so end up going at the Champion Hurdle. Whereas in this case we’re in the rare exception that the winner is a mare and the level required might not be too big of a leap. I think seeing as it’s very difficult from this thread to find a fourth selection (unless we take a view of CH going chasing/hurdling which I don’t really want to do yet), she’s a fair one to include.

April Yankee:
- El Fabiolo for the Champion Chase at 2/1
- Gaelic Warrior for the Stayers Hurdle at 5/1
- Impervious for the Ryanair Chase at 16/1
- Lossiemouth for the Mares Hurdle at 4/1

Odds - 1529/1
Bookmaker - William Hill

[Joleg]

Nice one MoM

[Quevega]

Have really struggled to find a fourth horse this month so I’ve taken a bit of a flier based on on something on the final day of the month (so perhaps was too late to get a deserved nomination). Lossiemouth for the Mares Hurdle appears to be the plan for Mullins. She looks a top class juvenile and the Mares Hurdle most years is weak (this year is the exception but even then a few of those won’t run next year in Honeysuckle and Marie’s Rock for example). I know it’s harder for the juveniles to step up to open company but most years they are horses rather than mares and so end up going at the Champion Hurdle. Whereas in this case we’re in the rare exception that the winner is a mare and the level required might not be too big of a leap. I think seeing as it’s very difficult from this thread to find a fourth selection (unless we take a view of CH going chasing/hurdling which I don’t really want to do yet), she’s a fair one to include.

April Yankee:
- El Fabiolo for the Champion Chase at 2/1
- Gaelic Warrior for the Stayers Hurdle at 5/1
- Impervious for the Ryanair Chase at 16/1
- Lossiemouth for the Mares Hurdle at 4/1

Odds - 1529/1
Bookmaker - William Hill

but most years they are horses rather than mares

[Saxon Warrior]

Have really struggled to find a fourth horse this month so I’ve taken a bit of a flier based on on something on the final day of the month (so perhaps was too late to get a deserved nomination). Lossiemouth for the Mares Hurdle appears to be the plan for Mullins. She looks a top class juvenile and the Mares Hurdle most years is weak

April Yankee:
- El Fabiolo for the Champion Chase at 2/1
- Gaelic Warrior for the Stayers Hurdle at 5/1
- Impervious for the Ryanair Chase at 16/1
- Lossiemouth for the Mares Hurdle at 4/1

Odds - 1529/1
Bookmaker - William Hill

Cheltenham might not be Echoes In Rain's favourite track

But if she runs to her Punchestown level of a 163 RPR, she would piss up in the Mares Hurdle

A big IF maybe though

But,......

Echoes 163 RPR is 6lb better than Honeysuckle when winning the Mares Hurdle in March (157)

17lb better than Maries Rock's Mare's 2022 win
10lb better than Black Tears 2021 win
6lb better than Honeysuckles 2020 win
13lb better than Roksana's 2019 win
11lb better than Benie DB's win in 2018 win
13lb better than Apples Appl's 2017 win
17lb better than Vroum Vroum Mag's 2016 win
14lb better than Glens MGlodys 2015 win

.....and better than all of Quevega's 6 wins
by 8lb, 8lb, 16lb, 23lb, 15lb, 16lb

So I'm not convinced it's going to be weak next year

Lossiemouth has to step up a lot, as a 5yo, as her best RPR is currently 143, and 20lb light of Echoes run last week.

That race has an intriguing look to it,

Lots of potential improvers including Lossie and Zenda from the juveniles

I can see the strength in the Lossiemouth pick, shes been a good earner for a lot of people this season

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m sure you kinda see the point I was trying to make. Can’t remember the last time before this year the top juvenile was a filly/mare.

[Middle_Of_March]

Cheltenham might not be Echoes In Rain's favourite track

But if she runs to her Punchestown level of a 163 RPR, she would piss up in the Mares Hurdle

A big IF maybe though

But,......

Echoes 163 RPR is 6lb better than Honeysuckle when winning the Mares Hurdle in March (157)

17lb better than Maries Rock's Mare's 2022 win
10lb better than Black Tears 2021 win
6lb better than Honeysuckles 2020 win
13lb better than Roksana's 2019 win
11lb better than Benie DB's win in 2018 win
13lb better than Apples Appl's 2017 win
17lb better than Vroum Vroum Mag's 2016 win
14lb better than Glens MGlodys 2015 win

.....and better than all of Quevega's 6 wins
by 8lb, 8lb, 16lb, 23lb, 15lb, 16lb

So I'm not convinced it's going to be weak next year

Lossiemouth has to step up a lot, as a 5yo, as her best RPR is currently 143, and 20lb light of Echoes run last week.

That race has an intriguing look to it,

Lots of potential improvers including Lossie and Zenda from the juveniles

I can see the strength in the Lossiemouth pick, shes been a good earner for a lot of people this season

As you say though, EIR surely isn’t close to her best at Cheltenham. And I’d also throw stones at the Punchestown form. Love Envoi was beat so far out that you could make a fair argument her run was too bad to be true and SWIW was ridden for a place.

[FinalFurlong91]

The RP website is showing a 158 rpr from what I can see for EIR perhaps they have downgraded it

even that seems a stretch to me given she beat anna bunina, a solid 140 mare, and the rest didnt run any kind of race

[Saxon Warrior]

The RP website is showing a 158 rpr from what I can see for EIR perhaps they have downgraded it

even that seems a stretch to me given she beat anna bunina, a solid 140 mare, and the rest didnt run any kind of race

Was 163 when I posted.

Looks like they had a 2nd check and reworked at 158

That means take 5lbs off all my figures

At that figure she's still 1lb better than Honeys 2 wins etc
Better number than all the past Mares Hurdle winners posted

I haven't backed Echoes. By the way.
I think it looks an open looking race
(Zenda and West Balboa interest me most a.t.m.)

Not 100% convinced Echoes has been at her best in March yet.

Shes just got the Ascot Gold Cup entry yesterday (first quote was at 8s for that)
which seems the right place to give it a go, next

Burning Victory and Princess got close in the last 2 Ascot Gold Cups

[nortonscoin200]

Was 163 when I posted.

Looks like they had a 2nd check and reworked at 158

That means take 5lbs off all my figures

At that figure she's still 1lb better than Honeys 2 wins etc
Better number than all the past Mares Hurdle winners posted

I haven't backed Echoes. By the way.
I think it looks an open looking race
(Zenda and West Balboa interest me most a.t.m.)

Not 100% convinced Echoes has been at her best in March yet.

Shes just got the Ascot Gold Cup entry yesterday (first quote was at 8s for that)
which seems the right place to give it a go, next

Burning Victory and Princess got close in the last 2 Ascot Gold Cups

It's interesting to compare the rprs recorded by ECHOES IN RAIN either side of the past two Festivals with what she achieved at Cheltenham.

Seems to me that a fair degree of caution is necessary when assessing her impressive performance at Punchestown because it's highly likely she wont get anywhere near that level next March.


Last year Echoes in Rain was given 153 for finishing a 7l third to Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle in February.

She then managed 139 for her 5th place finish in the Mares Hurdle. Winner Marie's Rock was given 146.

Next time out she got a 155 for a 3l second to Honeysuckle in the Paddy Power Hurdle at Punchestown.

So if you believe in the accuracy of the rprs she performed about a stone worse at Cheltenham than in the before/after races.

Moving on to the latest season the figures show:

155 for winning the Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas in January.

145 for finishing 4th behind Honeysuckle (157) in the Mares Hurdle

158 for her win at Punchestown last week.

So once again her Festival form was 10lbs and 13lbs worse than the before/after runs and imo the disparity can't be explained by ground conditions or race distance.


The picture is much less pronounced with Gaelic Warrior - another horse who seemingly doesn't perform to his absolute best racing left-handed at the Festival.

Last year was clouded by his 9-month mark-protecting absence from the track after joining Willie.

All you can say is that Gaelic Warrior's 133 for being touched off in the Martin Pipe was little better than the horse achieved in his second and third hurdle starts as a three-year-old in France (132 and 129).

This year's figures show:

155 for winning the Liffey handicap hurdle in February.

153 for second place in the Ballymore.

160 for winning the novices three miler at Punchestown.

It's difficult to draw any hard and fast conclusions from these figures but they tend to confirm what we already know - that Gaelic Warrior is unlikely to be be seen at his absolute best when he runs at the Festival next March.

The moot question seems likely to be: how near his best does GW need to be to win the Stayer's, assuming that's his target.

[Saxon Warrior]

Echoes certainly saves her best for a race in Ireland each year.

Willie has a job on to make March her peak.

Gaelic Warrior, I am not too worried having been 2nd there twice as a 4yo and 5yo.

Probably why I’ve backed him, and not backed Echoes, a.t.m.

[FinalFurlong91]

Echoes seems to be a strong travelling fast horse

Who doesn't find a great deal for pressure

She tends to either win on the snaff or not at all

That isn't usually the type of horse that excels on the undulations and stiff finish of Cheltenham

[Istabraq]

Echoes seems to be a strong travelling fast horse

Who doesn't find a great deal for pressure

She tends to either win on the snaff or not at all

That isn't usually the type of horse that excels on the undulations and stiff finish of Cheltenham

There has to be a reason why a talented horse like her has failed twice at Cheltenham now and this could well be the reason.
With so many talented mares around these days I couldn’t be having her for anything at Cheltenham, if I were Mullins she’d be one I’d leave in her box and target an Aintree/Fairyhouse double…

[Benjy23]

I wouldn't and won't be in any rush to back her for Cheltenham but I do think Patrick riding hasn't helped EIR in either Mares hurdle run.