April 2023 Yankee

[darlojim]

Is State Man pencilled in for Punchestown Ista ?

If so, and he wins, things might become a little clearer re his target.

He is yes Lobos

[JackieMoon33]

As it’s so early and you don’t have a full picture on what disciplines horses will be running at and also what horses will be with trainers, I’d propose a fun punt that I’ll call the ‘JP Jackpot’

Supreme: Mirazur West
Ballymore: Down Memory Lane
Albert Bartlett: Fact To File
Mares Chase: Impervious

[Istabraq]

Mares Chase: Impervious

Do you not think they’ll be setting their sights higher for this one ?
I’ve got her outlined as a Ryanair horse, I know a few have her as a livewire Gold Cup horse…

[JackieMoon33]

Do you not think they’ll be setting their sights higher for this one ?
I’ve got her outlined as a Ryanair horse, I know a few have her as a livewire Gold Cup horse…

I think they’ll aim higher but I personally think she’ll come up short. To be fair, Impervious is the least of the worries in terms of targets on that list

[Eggs]

….giving this a bump with only days to go. Not sure if Members have anything yet from Punchestown they think is worth highlighting.

[Exar Essay]

Marine Nationale - Arkle is one I am becoming very keen on. I think Facile Vega would've been much closer but for that poor final jump, but I don't think he'd have troubled the winner in the Supreme. Proved he was a cut above the rest yesterday in what we now know was a superb Supreme (Inthepocket, Strong Leader, Facile Vega, Il Etait Temps, Fennors Cross have all franked the form since).

Constitution Hill is obviously the fly in the ointment, but I think 5/1 is fair enough even with Constitution Hill in the betting. I'd probably want 2/1 that Constitution Hill ends up here even.

[Lobos]

We just can't put anything forward for the Arkle, Champion Hurdle, Turners or Champion Chase IMO. The Constitution Hill factor is just too big to ignore. Where he ends up changes everything and we might not know until next February. It's annoying but can't be ignored.

[Leman14]

How about we put an alternative selection up for each of the above four races?
CH can only run in one of them, then you have "value" on three others....
(And ..... god forbid.... he could get beaten/not turn up....)

just a thought..

[Eggs]

How about we put an alternative selection up for each of the above four races?
CH can only run in one of them, then you have "value" on three others....
(And ..... god forbid.... he could get beaten/not turn up....)

just a thought..

….I recall MN connections already mentioning the CH so 8-1 seems decent but that could change if Constitution Hill goes that route.

Personally, I took Banbridge (Ryanair) out of Aintree. He also carries risk but 16-1 for a horse that saw Stage Star off convincingly looks very fair.

[Monty's Pass]

I'd like to put forward Impaire Et Passe for the Turners. Standout 7/1 with PP. I don't see them keeping him over hurdles for a potentially futile crack at Con Hill and if Con goes chasing State Man will be waiting to fill his hoof prints and become Champion hurdler. FV will likely be kept to the minimum trip until beaten, the likes of Gaelic Warrior, Nick Rockett and The Nice Guy wanting further so I don't see a threat from within his own stable at present. Marine Nationale going to be running over 2m whether it be hurdles or fences. Win at Punchestown Friday and that price likely falls in line with other bookies who will cut him anyway and be around 11/4. That price would of course be shockingly low to take on a horse who's not jumped a fence in public nor has a certain target but 7's could be really big come the new year for a horse who produced an extremely impressive display in the Ballymore. I'm sure the vibes where that he would go chasing and the Champion Hurdle comments where just good old bants from Willie trying to keep Nicky on his toes.

[Lobos]

How about we put an alternative selection up for each of the above four races?
CH can only run in one of them, then you have "value" on three others....
(And ..... god forbid.... he could get beaten/not turn up....)

just a thought..

The issue there is, whatever race CH turns up in other horses will move target so it's impossible to know where alternative selections will run.

[Lobos]

….I recall MN connections already mentioning the CH so 8-1 seems decent but that could change if Constitution Hill goes that route.

Personally, I took Banbridge (Ryanair) out of Aintree. He also carries risk but 16-1 for a horse that saw Stage Star off convincingly looks very fair.

Soft ground would rule him out though. Better to stick to horses who are not ground dependant ??

[Lobos]

I do like IEP Turners but now that Vauban is going to have a flat campaign perhaps Willie will aim him at the CH and have two very good bullets at the race ?

[Monty's Pass]

I do like IEP Turners but now that Vauban is going to have a flat campaign perhaps Willie will aim him at the CH and have two very good bullets at the race ?

That's quite possible of course but I think what it comes down to is, is IEP 9 lengths better than State Man and still on the bridle? Because he'd have to be just to be upsides Con Hill. Willie always leans towards races where he has the best chance of winning and while he'd be another very good bullet in the Champ Hurdle would it just be a wasted bullet ultimately?

Annoyingly it's a lot of guess work at this stage as we know but at 7's he's the one I'd stick my neck out with out of the others and have chasing and the Turners as the target Imo but I'm fully aware it's a minefield and anything could happen and wouldn't suprise me much either way where any of them ended up

[Lobos]

Yep and there's one big mine in that minefield that is just sitting there ready to explode and putting everything on hold in the meantime.