Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Joeski29]

Just looking at antepost bets with Skybet, might already be something they did before without me noticing but you can place 1 any race horse in an accumulator.
ie Allaho Ryanair, Delta Work Cross Country and Constitution Hill any race can be done as a treble.
Might be something they've always done but passing it on just in case I'm not the only one who didn't know.

[Exar Essay]

So many possibilities for CH. I think the 5/1 about the Arkle is over priced though and worth a squeek with cash out. Did wonder if Buckley wanted to take on Honey at Punchestown so that he is free for a chasing campaign the year after. I do like a 7yo in open chasing company too.

Others I like early doors:

- Kudasheva (MNH) - 40/1
- Demanddrivingdouvan (Bumper) - 20/1
- Better Days Ahead (Bumper) - 33/1
- Mighty Potter (Marsh) - 25/1

Worry that DDD might squeeze a bumper in this year and go over a hurdle next year though.

I actually think Bob is great value for the GC at 20/1. He didn’t like GDCs relentless pace. That took him out of his comfort zone. Even if GDC runs here, his jumping won’t be under as much pressure early doors.

I’m going to focus on classier horses going to the Supreme or Bally. Just don’t see Gordon or Willie sending their classier beasts to the AB. On that basis I think Mike goes to the Bally so will have a little bit on him.

My bet of the very early season though is James Du Berlais for the Marsh at 20/1. Basically, same view as last year but delayed 12 months.

[Winging The Last]

Ones I can see at the top of each race currently:

Novice Hurdles
Supreme - Facile Vega (best bumper horse this season). Willie will probably send one of the Ricci horses here him Mercurey or Gaelic Warrior if he doesn't win this season.
Ballymore - James Gate and maybe American Mike. I think they would rather send AM him than AB especially with the Ginto bad memory from the race. GE has a good record in the Ballymore as well
AB - Sandor Clegane of the ones we have seen so far
Mares Novice Hurdle - Foxy Girl is one I will be all over this season in this for HDB. And Facile Vega's full sister who will be 5 next season and has got some mentions from Willie

There will be plenty more novices we haven't seen yet.

Novice Chasers
Arkle - Sir Gerhard. I think they will go here as they know how much pace he has and winning the Ballymore is a better show of pace to me. They could go Champion Hurdle with him and it would all depend on Vauban as he looks their main play in a vey strong renewal next year atm. Jonbon could go here as I think CH will go the Champion Hurdle, though they do say he will satay further. I would guess they will try the Arkle as a novice and then decide to move up in trip.
Marsh - I can see Dysart Dynamo now moving up in trip as fences should calm him down and he wont be as gung ho. I also think Mighty Potter will step up in trip next year to this. State Man could be one for this next season or the Arkle, I think he is more likely to go chasing
RSA - Now that Ginto has unfortunately passed it opens this up a bit more. JWM will most likely come here with The Nice Guy, Hollow Games and I think Fil D'or will be a stayer over fences. Obviously some of these could go the NHC as well. I can see Appreciate it doing what Kev wanted him to do this season next season and go up in trip over fences and the same could be said about Kilcruit for the same connections. And you'd think they will both be split up (One here and the other Marsh or NHC?)
NHC - As an experienced chaser already GDM may come here if he doesn't win this season. Banbridge may also come here for Ronnie Bartlett who loves this race. I would have said Hollow Games for this before Ginto passed but that may change now. Minella Crooner could be one for this.

Open Hurdles
Champion - Honeysuckle, Constitution Hill and Vauban what a clash it could be. With Pied Piper also looking to come this way and Brazil but he most likely won't be good enough
Mares Hurdle - Love Envoi will most likely come here and we will have to see how she progresses. Marie's Rock will as well as she won't be good enough against the geldings. Wasn't the best Mares Hurdle this year so leaves it open for a novice or TMSG. Brandy Love could be that one as I think ADV will go chasing
Stayers - Flooring Porter will be the one to beat again. Maybe Minella Cocooner will come here or The Nice Guy, but he is getting on and if he is to go chasing then it will be sooner rather than later.

Open Chases
QM - Energumene will surely go to retain his crown and if Shishkin is fine then he could come here but I wouldn't be surprised if they step him up in trip this season to aim for the KG. Ferny Hollow will come here this season as long as he can stay fit and will put it up to Energumene. And Edwardstone will be aimed at this and could be the best of the British but I still think he will struggle at the top top level against Energumene and Ferny Hollow.
Ryanair - Allaho surely will come here and will be hard to beat again. With GDC Willie already has Energumene at 2m and Allaho at 2.5m so I wouldn't be surprised that he steps up in trip even though currently he looks like he would be better at less with the way he jumps.
GC - GDC as above. Also APT will be here to defend his crown. Surely Stattler and Galvin will come this way or handicaps but they are on very high marks now. Bravemansgame will either come here or miss the festival, and L'Homme Presse will be one for here. Ahoy will come here by he needs to brush up on his jumping to get anywhere near in contention.
Mares Chase - The Mares Chase needs a superstar and I'm not the biggest fan of Elimay who will come here again but when up against a good mare she will lose. ADV will be my main one to come and do that if she is well and Brandy Love could also go chasing.

Cross Country - Looks like a penalty kick for Delta Work currently

Juveniles - Who knows atm

Bumper - Now there is a lot of talk about Demandrivingdouvan and he could be special but based on breeding and his mum it is not special. I feel that his name having Douvan in is hyping him up even though he's only related to Douvan as the same sire from what I can see. The one I'm likely currently for GE is Better Days Ahead who was bought by the Morans the other day at the Tattersall Sales at Cheltenham for 350k and looks like he could be the American Mike of this season. Willie will also have something in this which won't even be known about yet.


Main omission that I can see from here is Bob Olinger who could go anywhere from Champion Hurdle to the Gold Cup. With the way he doesn't look a complete natural over his fences I can see him going back over hurdles but then I can see him staying over fences as he is with Henry. So he could go anywhere

[CJW]

I'm hoping to see Facile Vega in the supreme and Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.

Galopin des champs looked sensational but where will he go?

[DenmanSacre]

Constitution Hill wins whatever race he goes for.

An Tobar wins whatever race Henry aims him for. If someone can get him priced up for the Bumper, Supreme, Ballymore and Albert Bartlett I would appreciate it.

I think Better Days Ahead will be Elliotts bumper horse but no point in thinking about that until after this season is over. Mullins will likely have a few good ones so best to leave it until we see the entries for Down Royal next season.

I can't see Demandrivingdouvan going the bumper. Already 5 so he is the perfect age for the novice hurdles. I'd imagine the Supreme but Facile Vega will be incredibly hard to beat if he goes the Supreme.

If Jonbon goes to the Turners, I'd struggle to see him out of the top 3 at this moment.

Balygrifincottage will be interesting over fences.

[Hurricane fly]

Delta Work was 5/1 to next years Cross Country yesterday. went to go and out a couple of points on him today and he's already down to 5/2!

I'll probably open my diary up in the coming days as I like to use a couple of points profit to get the following years going. I've got 7pts staked at the moment, will possibly end up around 15-20 when Truckers Lodge wins the Midlands National.

I feel absolutely ridiculous saying this but Galopin Des Champs is 5/2 any race is weirdly tempting. He's no bigger than 5/1 for any race so definitely value compared to backing in all 3 races.

I try not to back this years winners as they are always a point or two too short but I might have a punt at Mullins bingo early doors.

Early fancies
Bardenstown Lad - NH
Grangee / TMSG - MH
GDM - GC

I've seen people put up GDM for the NHC as a second season novice but I'm not sure that's a tactic Willie uses? More so Gordon - The Bosses Oscar I'm looking at you. He will definitely stayed 3m2f and could be a National horse instead.

[Eggs]

….I also wondered Bardenstown Lad for NHC, did really well staying on for 3rd in AB.

[Bonjers]

Delta Work was 5/1 to next years Cross Country yesterday. went to go and out a couple of points on him today and he's already down to 5/2!

I'll probably open my diary up in the coming days as I like to use a couple of points profit to get the following years going. I've got 7pts staked at the moment, will possibly end up around 15-20 when Truckers Lodge wins the Midlands National.

I feel absolutely ridiculous saying this but Galopin Des Champs is 5/2 any race is weirdly tempting. He's no bigger than 5/1 for any race so definitely value compared to backing in all 3 races.

I try not to back this years winners as they are always a point or two too short but I might have a punt at Mullins bingo early doors.

Early fancies
Bardenstown Lad - NH
Grangee / TMSG - MH
GDM - GC

I've seen people put up GDM for the NHC as a second season novice but I'm not sure that's a tactic Willie uses? More so Gordon - The Bosses Oscar I'm looking at you. He will definitely stayed 3m2f and could be a National horse instead.

Lorcan saying hold my beer to Sheehan for the worst ride on a Nicholls horse this season. Committing him with a full circuit to go ffs!

[riccirich]

The immediate one that comes to mind for me that looks good value is stattler for the gold cup.

so many at the front of the market have doubts over whether this will be the target, unlike stattler who will go here if good enough. He travels, jumps and stays and was an even more impressive winner of the national hunt chase than galvin who went off second fave this year.

He just looks a solid one to me at this stage.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Ahoy Senor still does so much wrong that I think there's enough improvement in the tank for him to feature in a Gold Cup. He has to learn from his mistakes though but I'm willing to take a chance at 20/1.

[HoldenTheReins]

Ahoy Senor still does so much wrong that I think there's enough improvement in the tank for him to feature in a Gold Cup. He has to learn from his mistakes though but I'm willing to take a chance at 20/1.

There's no way he should've got that close with the mistakes he made. He's got a proper engine.

[Hurricane fly]

Last year I took the view that I would have minimal involvement with English horses, I know they fared much better, however 3 of 5 graded wins came on the Tuesday with good ground. As soon as we hit good to soft or worse the Irish dominated again.

I think I will take the same view outside of Jonbon / CH and possibly LH.

[ToniC]

Blazing Khal rsa. Take it to the bank

[MTR]

I got that added to William hill last night via Twitter, with connections seems the obvious choice!

William hill have already cut James gate to 14/1 - doesn’t look like there going to be sleeping before the next festival either!

[keithsutton86]

Is he big enough?

Was dwarfed by Dysart dynamo and jonbon when they all lined up

you could say that about tiger roll... 2 grand nationals later....