Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Zachx02]

I think he used to use Nicky Bertan de Balanda - but I am not up to date with if this remains the case.

No luck unfortunately, tried to see if caldwell bought any more too as they did with fil dor but to no avail

[JackieMoon33]

Has anyone managed to get a handle on the Elliott juvenile purchases this summer? I usually manage to track this down through a couple of sources and I'm really struggling to do so this year. If possible I'd like to know what he's got before the Mark Howard and Paul Ferguson books are printed.

Joey Logan bought two notable two year old stores at Arqana autumn sale in 2021 for Caldwell. They’ll both be eligible for juveniles and you’d assume Gordon will get them. I heard from someone that they may be renamed due to not racing yet so I’ll have to track down the new names at some point. Jamestown was the most interesting one on pedigree but Vanguard has a nice page too. Both are by Doctor Dino who tends to get early racing types that are equipped for juvenile hurdles. Jamestown is a half brother to Delta Work out of a prolific mare. Vanguard is a half brother to Labaik.

[fatherjohn]

I have a couple in my notes:

Irish Point - 4 Y-O gelding. A winner of a grade 1 AQPS flat race in France. Sold privately to BA. (I can't remember where I read this but probably on one of the French racing sites).

Foxy Girl - 4 Y-O filly bought last year and sent to Henry. He announced shortly after she arrived at his yard that he would give her plenty of time to settle in and mature before making her UK debut. I'm guessing she will go novice hurdling but the race planning experts amongst us may suggest otherwise.

From memory Madmoose posted some useful information regarding Robcour on here last year and hopefully he will be kind enough to share any nuggets of info this year too.

irish point gone from 40s to 25s already...also posted

https://twitter.com/RoadCheltenham/status/1562377046277459968?t=bfJ7cP90Yl2obfn_-vctKA&s=19

earlier today which has a few followers

[Atlantic Viking]

irish point gone from 40s to 25s already...also posted

https://twitter.com/RoadCheltenham/status/1562377046277459968?t=bfJ7cP90Yl2obfn_-vctKA&s=19

earlier today which has a few followers

It's just someone from here posting stuff from here isn't it? Had to unfollow a while back as it had a habit of tweeting total nonsense.

[RoadToCheltenham]

Trying not to tweet as much total nonsense these days but appreciate the account isn't for everyone

[RoadToCheltenham]

After reading The Giant Bolster 's excellent Nicky Henderson profile, Walking On Air may end up in my book for the Turners.

Agree Jonbon surely goes for the Arkle and WOA always been held in high regard at Seven Barrows. He's 5 turning 6 so still young and a mid-disrance novice chase campaign looks the most likely direction at this stage.

[darlojim]

Trying not to tweet as much total nonsense these days but appreciate the account isn't for everyone

It's a tough one because on one hand, you're just doing your thing on Twitter which you are absolutely free to do so, but on the other hand, there's horses that I'm sure the 'general racing people' don't know much about but are being highlighted by accounts like yours to a decent sized following and plenty of people will just blindly follow causing absolutely unnecessary price crashes way too early on.

Don't think in any way this is a direct message to you btw, people like that racingjosh don't help us antepost punters either.

It's just a slightly frustrating one

[Quevega]

Someone convince me Three Stripe Life will be better over fences than hurdles !
I know he might not need to be much better, but I can't have him purely on the breeding side.
I know it's early days for Leading Light but that and the dam's sire put me off sufficiently, especially at the prices.
& Montjeu doesn't help much (granted, Noble Prince is a plus)

[Lobos]

irish point gone from 40s to 25s already...also posted

https://twitter.com/RoadCheltenham/status/1562377046277459968?t=bfJ7cP90Yl2obfn_-vctKA&s=19

earlier today which has a few followers

But why the Supreme????

[Saxon Warrior]

It's a tough one because on one hand, you're just doing your thing on Twitter which you are absolutely free to do so, but on the other hand, there's horses that I'm sure the 'general racing people' don't know much about but are being highlighted by accounts like yours to a decent sized following and plenty of people will just blindly follow causing absolutely unnecessary price crashes way too early on.

Don't think in any way this is a direct message to you btw, people like that racingjosh don't help us antepost punters either.

It's just a slightly frustrating one

I would definitely appreciate a total lack of unnecessary price crashes, on horses.

It leads to having to bet ‘earlier than planned’ just in case Twitter folk make a pitch on a horse Ive studied and like - when I’m unaware of it going on.

Seems a lot of people on Twitter, want to build up a following, in that way, these days.
Hopefully they tip the wrong ones, early and often, and are leaving the ones I like alone

It’s one of the reasons, we may need to tweak a bit, when we post up some study and selections on FJ, as these may end up on Twitter before you’re even aware. (Probably even when you’re having a dump)

Get your win bets, and Multi’s on first, before posting your picks on here
Im sure we do that anyway.

In mitigation, when I really like one, I have had to make my mind up to bet earlier these days, and trying to retain a Cashout position for as many as possible. (With a bookie that doesn’t whip it away).

[Eggs]

I would definitely appreciate a total lack of unnecessary price crashes, on horses.

It leads to having to bet ‘earlier than planned’ just in case Twitter folk make a pitch on a horse Ive studied and like - when I’m unaware of it going on.

Seems a lot of people on Twitter, want to build up a following, in that way, these days.
Hopefully they tip the wrong ones, early and often, and are leaving the ones I like alone

It’s one of the reasons, we may need to tweak a bit, when we post up some study and selections on FJ, as these may end up on Twitter before you’re even aware. (Probably even when you’re having a dump)

Get your win bets, and Multi’s on first, before posting your picks on here
Im sure we do that anyway.

In mitigation, when I really like one, I have had to make my mind up to bet earlier these days, and trying to retain a Cashout position for as many as possible. (With a bookie that doesn’t whip it away).

….perhaps we need to consider keeping even more in the Members section.

[Saxon Warrior]

….perhaps we need to consider keeping even more in the Members section.

If Members put our picks and reasoning onto Twitter, then that crashes that idea Eggs

If FJ folk are actively tipping prices for Festival horses on Twitter, and crashing prices in what is a delicate pre-season betting market with low liquidity.
Then there's probably little we can do about it.

To be honest the horse mentioned that went from 40s to 20s is of course still 1/20 to be a loser, but we love to think those early big price finds are better than that. (I've got plenty of them each season)

It depends where each individual wants to find their own audience I suppose.

Some wont just want to post on FJ, and will Tweet stuff.

Potential Solution
But if its posted on FJ first
(at lunchtime for example),

and confirmed when it will be on Twitter later in the day
(say 8pm for example)

then that seems fair enough an offer to FJ folk that want to study and back someones picks (or not)

--------------------------------

Personally I'm more than willing to use FJ for all my primary commentary, in my Diary. (as many others also do on here, its what makes this place vibrant and meaningful, really meaningful, to many of us, a lifeline to some)

As well as updating my Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott Dairies each season.

Also I analyse the 5 Monthly Irish Race Planning Diary each autumn and update each race, remove those falling out of fashion and finding new ones to add in.

I do that willingly for FJ Members Only.
It's weeks of work to update and amend each year, but it does help me shape my own betting plans as I work through the updates- and then I use all those Diaries to put the key races into my phones Google Calendar and track entries for key races.

So I get plenty back for the work I put in - and hopefully others have that methodical approach to approaching races and entry dates.

I have no desire to cultivate a Twitter audience by adding that sort of content onto there, or becoming a Tipster - paid or not (most likely the latter )

As the season gets into full swing, I'm of the opinion that the antepost markets will become more robust and able to withstand a handful of bets coming in from a Twitter or FJ selection being posted up.
- we shall see.

[ComplyOrDie]

Not sold on Irish Point yet, personally. Joshua Tree has plenty to prove as a sire still, despite it being early days in the breeding ranks for him.

With regards to Supreme runners for Robcour, I'd be more inclined to look at Hiddenvalley Lake. Closely related to Shishkin, would have won his p2p had he not been carried out, still achieving an RPR in the same region that both Shishkin & Bob Olinger achieved. Hiddenvalley Lake is still a 40/1 poke with Bet365. Obviously could go for the Ballymore, but they also have An Tobar who looks to be more suited to a trip of 2m5f+.

One other, who seems to have had a little bit of noise behind him, is Flame Of Jeremiah. He seems to be more of a talking horse. Is trained by Noel Meade (so I believe, anyway). I know very little about the horse other than that though. 33/1 currently with a few bookmakers.

[Spectre]

Joey Logan bought two notable two year old stores at Arqana autumn sale in 2021 for Caldwell. They’ll both be eligible for juveniles and you’d assume Gordon will get them. I heard from someone that they may be renamed due to not racing yet so I’ll have to track down the new names at some point. Jamestown was the most interesting one on pedigree but Vanguard has a nice page too. Both are by Doctor Dino who tends to get early racing types that are equipped for juvenile hurdles. Jamestown is a half brother to Delta Work out of a prolific mare. Vanguard is a half brother to Labaik.

Thanks Jackie. I wasn't aware of either. That's really helpful. If they're Caldwell horses I wouldn't be surprised if there's a name change. If you become aware of any name changes could you let me know.

[Spectre]

New Year Honours - From the flat formerly with Ralph Beckett - Similar profile to Zanahiyr, and by the same sire, Nathaniel.

I'm pretty sure there was another I noted too, but struggling to find it

Haven't seen much in the way of French brought juveniles for him yet, but I've not done a whole heap of research on that.

You can see why given previous success CoD. Definitely interesting, but I'm not sure he has the same level of ability as Zanahiyr. Obviously there are good reasons why horses improve, but he's not quite in the range I'd want to see for a Triumph winner. I think from memory only Pentland Hills has come from a similar flat base in recent years, and he was fortunate that Sir Erec had his fatal injury in what turned out to be a very weak and easy Triumph to win. I suspect NYH will be more of a Boodles type. Gordon could improve him significantly though and I've added him to my tracker.