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Mares Chase 2021

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  • Originally posted by Magpie View Post

    ​​​​​​Just think De Bromhead wants to find out if he has a chance in the Champion Chase, and theres only.one.way.of finding out. As they say, dont be frightened of one borse, think even if Chacun gets there fully fit, PTKO will.still take him on.
    I think it would be incredibly optimistic to think its just chacun they have to beat. notebook looked a better horse most of last year and at drf this year. First flow and nube negra are both close on official rating and thats ignoring altior and politlogue

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    • Yes that’s a fair point, I just meant that chacun is so strong in that market, that it opens up the debate if PTKO should move race. If it was not for fav, I doubt there would be any debate. Fav still needs to get up hill, though that looks less problematic after Dublin when it was still tanking up the hill, and horses can always have off days, clatter a fence.

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      • Originally posted by fatherjohn View Post

        I think it would be incredibly optimistic to think its just chacun they have to beat. notebook looked a better horse most of last year and at drf this year. First flow and nube negra are both close on official rating and thats ignoring altior and politlogue
        Surely first flow has no chance going left handed? Could end up in the guinness village. Watch his run in supreme or chase debut at uttox... eeekk

        Nube Negra was stuffed by Esprit du Large and Rouge Vif last year (both average horses). Beat an old altior and everything else ran well below form at Kemptom (DDG made a noise and the rest were too bad to be true)

        Notebook should be saved for punch. There is no doubt whatsoever that PTKO turns the lep form around with him. She isnt suited by Lep while Notebook is, while she loves Chelt while he cant handle it at all (finished last both starts there)

        She ran a quicker time than Polit last year on slower ground. She should have his measure

        Altior looks finished on his Kempton form.

        Well worth rolling the dice in the Champion Chase. Can always go back to the mares chase in the years ahead.
        Last edited by Dessie the great; 16 February 2021, 09:50 PM.

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        • I'd rather know re BDD now than in 3 weeks, and I suppose it firms up Elimay and perhaps make DDC more likely. Its disappointing but after the exchange move an PM interview yesterday definitely not surprising. I get PM being guarded re targets and not committing horses when he doesn't need to, but it was so obvious in the way he didn't answer the question that something was wrong - I don't get why he didn't just say then. Oh well, first major NR news I suppose and wont be the last

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          • The only really bad thing about this whole debacle is that punters just won't put money down in the future, which is bad for everyone

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            • Originally posted by Silverbirch View Post
              The only really bad thing about this whole debacle is that punters just won't put money down in the future, which is bad for everyone
              In their defence, they said she had a setback at the start of the season and made it clear the intention was to head straight to cheltenham fairly early. I backed her knowing this as did most, so I don't think punters can complain about the outcome, I think its the manner in which news is delivered that leaves a bad smell.

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              • Originally posted by Silverbirch View Post
                The only really bad thing about this whole debacle is that punters just won't put money down in the future, which is bad for everyone
                I don't see that happening. The only thing stopping punters will be the government, but that's a whole 'nother story!

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                • Coral have an "In The Know" Elimay special to win the Mares Chase at 3/1 still up for anyone interested.

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                  • Originally posted by Dessie the great View Post

                    Surely first flow has no chance going left handed? Could end up in the guinness village. Watch his run in supreme or chase debut at uttox... eeekk

                    Nube Negra was stuffed by Esprit du Large and Rouge Vif last year (both average horses). Beat an old altior and everything else ran well below form at Kemptom (DDG made a noise and the rest were too bad to be true)

                    Notebook should be saved for punch. There is no doubt whatsoever that PTKO turns the lep form around with him. She isnt suited by Lep while Notebook is, while she loves Chelt while he cant handle it at all (finished last both starts there)

                    She ran a quicker time than Polit last year on slower ground. She should have his measure

                    Altior looks finished on his Kempton form.

                    Well worth rolling the dice in the Champion Chase. Can always go back to the mares chase in the years ahead.
                    Wouldn’t be worried about First Flow going left handed. Has won at wetherby, Doncaster, haydock, lingfield. All left handed.

                    Cheltenham may not be his track but I’d think that is due to the configuration of the track rather than the direction they’re running.

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                    • Originally posted by Imperial Commander View Post
                      Coral have an "In The Know" Elimay special to win the Mares Chase at 3/1 still up for anyone interested.
                      Is it nrnb?

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                      • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

                        Is it nrnb?
                        yep........

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                        • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                          yep........
                          Hmm it is tempting

                          But so is the 14/1 shattered love e/w who could end up being second fav with PTKO, DDC and Colreevy looking unlikely runners

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                          • Bit of a forgotten horse but Salsaretta could be a play at 20/1 now if she comes back to form. Race will really cut up

                            Intended runner and only 3 above her who look definite to run, could well have Paul T onboard. Other than Elimay no real standout horses in here (With DDC & Colreevy potentially not showing up)

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                            • Originally posted by Crolwey113 View Post
                              Bit of a forgotten horse but Salsaretta could be a play at 20/1 now if she comes back to form. Race will really cut up

                              Intended runner and only 3 above her who look definite to run, could well have Paul T onboard. Other than Elimay no real standout horses in here (With DDC & Colreevy potentially not showing up)
                              I think that could be a very good shout. Plenty on here knocking her at 5/1 fav (inc me), but the price push and race potentially cutting up, could very well bring her into play. Maybe worth suggesting for the day 4 yankee?

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                              • Originally posted by charlie View Post

                                I think that could be a very good shout. Plenty on here knocking her at 5/1 fav (inc me), but the price push and race potentially cutting up, could very well bring her into play. Maybe worth suggesting for the day 4 yankee?
                                I like this angle too. At 20/1 the ew winnings aren’t far off the same that you get from betting Elimay on the nose - with the bonus of having the win bet chance too. Which although small isn’t non-existent like some ew bets I see are.

                                Not sure anyone would be that surprised if she finished 2nd, and anything could happen to Elimay in running assuming she makes it to the start line.

                                I haven’t convinced myself yet, but I’m not far from it.

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