Mares Chase 2021

[RufusFlynn]

Potenitally waaaay off the mark as the race will most likely be won by a Mullins Mare but I have added Heaven Help Us to my shortlist.

Has placed 1st and 2nd in her two chase starts albeit in weak races but will have a bit of experience come March. Has won at the track at the October meeting last year. 7th in the Supreme where although a long way back from the principals she certainly outran her odds of 100/1.

Not placing a bet just yet but will keep in mind nearer the time.

[ComplyOrDie]

Potenitally waaaay off the mark as the race will most likely be won by a Mullins Mare but I have added Heaven Help Us to my shortlist.

Has placed 1st and 2nd in her two chase starts albeit in weak races but will have a bit of experience come March. Has won at the track at the October meeting last year. 7th in the Supreme where although a long way back from the principals she certainly outran her odds of 100/1.

Not placing a bet just yet but will keep in mind nearer the time.

I don't dislike her Rufus, I had her as one to note going up in trip over hurdles, but they've elected to go the chase route.

40/1 wouldn't excite me yet though, as she only had an average bunch to beat at the weekend after the favourite fell at the first.

[Kevloaf]

It's mad that we just assume any Mare going chasing will end up here.

I immediately went to check the Mares Chase odds for DAme De Compagnie (not blown away at 20/1 by any stretch) It'd be some performance for her to win a handicap one year then come back as a novice and win an open class chase.



She's more likely to 'use her allowance' isn't she?


Aren't most of them?


I feel like Honeysuckle would have been an expcetion, and perhaps Elfile as the owner has a hard on for Mares, but I think we're assuming a lot of novices are going here and they might not?

[archie]

I think we're assuming a lot of novices are going here and they might not?

Point made by Saxon Warrior some time ago but well worth repeating now as spot on.

[Quevega]

It's mad that we just assume any Mare going chasing will end up here.

I immediately went to check the Mares Chase odds for DAme De Compagnie (not blown away at 20/1 by any stretch) It'd be some performance for her to win a handicap one year then come back as a novice and win an open class chase.



She's more likely to 'use her allowance' isn't she?


Aren't most of them?


I feel like Honeysuckle would have been an expcetion, and perhaps Elfile as the owner has a hard on for Mares, but I think we're assuming a lot of novices are going here and they might not?

When they announce the race conditions then we can perhaps get a list of likely contenders as some may be favoured and some may not.
Why are the race conditions not known yet anyway ?

[jack1092]

Point made by Saxon Warrior some time ago but well worth repeating now as spot on.

Where else will they go if they are wanting to run a mare over fences at the fez? Surely they'll get some sort of allowance and some will run.

[Quevega]

Where else will they go if they are wanting to run a mare over fences at the fez? Surely they'll get some sort of allowance and some will run.

Yep.
Not sure what the point was.
But if the race suits, and they're good enough then they'll run. Simple.
I'd be surprised if the conditions don't point them in this direction.
Willie will certainly be interested in the allowances as he likes to manouvre around these things.

[Kevloaf]

Where else will they go if they are wanting to run a mare over fences at the fez? Surely they'll get some sort of allowance and some will run.

Yep.
Not sure what the point was.
But if the race suits, and they're good enough then they'll run. Simple.
I'd be surprised if the conditions don't point them in this direction.
Willie will certainly be interested in the allowances as he likes to manouvre around these things.

The Marsh Novice Chase they'll get a 7lb allowance and be up against boys.

In the Grade 2 Mares Chase they'll be up against women?


Novices aren't going to get an allowance for running in a grade 2, surely?

[Istabraq]

I could easily be wrong but novices are unlikely to get any allowance, what is far more likely is that horses with class 1 wins to their name will receive penalties, presumably multiple penalties will apply for horses with multiple class 1 wins which should dissuade genuine G1 horses from heading here...

[Quevega]

The Marsh Novice Chase they'll get a 7lb allowance and be up against boys.

In the Grade 2 Mares Chase they'll be up against women?


Novices aren't going to get an allowance for running in a grade 2, surely?

There are usually penalties for previous graded or listed wins. So this can help some and not others.
It will sway some decision making for sure.
There will be one or two that look favoured because of this, this could include a novice or older mare.
But good race planning can mean you get in off a lower weight than a rival or two.
We really should know the conditions by now.

[Kevloaf]

There are usually penalties for previous graded or listed wins. So this can help some and not others.
It will sway some decision making for sure.
There will be one or two that look favoured because of this, this could include a novice or older mare.
But good race planning can mean you get in off a lower weight than a rival or two.
We really should know the conditions by now.

Absolutely.... but for me that's enough to stop me putting money on novices for a race not restricted to novices.

I feel people are jumping the gun (understandly perhaps) as my first thought with DDC was to check the odds for this race.

I think that's an error though, given what we don't know.

[Istabraq]

Yep, couldn’t agree more Kev...

[Lobos]

I still think DDC will be more competitive staying over hurdles be it the handicap route again or a crack at the Mares Hurdle should 1 or 2 of the Big Guns decide to go elsewhere. She could be one that switches codes at the festival's.

[Lobos]

Shattered Love entered up on Wednesday against the boys again over 3 miles .

[mayo]

Absolutely.... but for me that's enough to stop me putting money on novices for a race not restricted to novices.

I feel people are jumping the gun (understandly perhaps) as my first thought with DDC was to check the odds for this race.

I think that's an error though, given what we don't know.

Muggishly jumped in without considering this. I do like DDC a lot though.