Ryanair Chase 2021

[Istabraq]

I wasn’t aware of that if true Robith but that’s some stat.
I assume it’s because winners are pretty much guaranteed to go up 12lb+ for the win and unless they are genuine graded class horses the handicapper has their grip.
A Plus Tard wasn’t far away in last years Ryanair and may well reach that level this coming season.
But still one hell of a stat that...

[Nortons who]

Nice Norton's. Min out, Allaho in.

Possibly but the point I am making is that based on past experience it is likely that only a couple of runners from the 2020 renewal will come here again. Is Allaho more likely to be one of them, I'm not so sure as in my opinion he could try for the Gold Cup. If I had to pick 2 now that ran in the Ryanair in 2020 which will try again in 2021, I would say A Plus Tard and Saint Calvados.

Of more relevance for me though based on the trends, is which horses will comprise the likely 80% of runners which didn't run in the race in 2020. Currently, I would shortlist Samcro, Fakir Doudairies, Melon, Angels Breath and possibly DDS.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Right, I might be making this up re: APT and Imperial AUra, but I swear I once read no winner of the Novice HCap chase has ever gone up to win another festival race. Is that true or have I invented it? Either way was my main reason not to back APT last season so I hope it was

I've just checked and you're right, Rob. Rajdhani Express went on and won the Topham at Aintree a couple of years later but can't see that any have backed up with another win at the Festival.

[Istabraq]

I’m convinced that the day one Allaho plan will be Gold Cup, I’m not saying it’s impossible he ends up landing here but the blue ribband has to be the initial target...

[Faugheen_Machine]

I’m convinced that the day one Allaho plan will be Gold Cup, I’m not saying it’s impossible he ends up landing here but the blue ribband has to be the initial target...

Agreed Ista. Minella Indo and Alloha went at it from a long way out and I think it cost them both. More conservative rides would see both in better light, imo.

He may end up in the Ryanair but they should be given the opportunity to show hes a Gold Cup horse first.

[Hardy Eustace]

I’m convinced that the day one Allaho plan will be Gold Cup, I’m not saying it’s impossible he ends up landing here but the blue ribband has to be the initial target...

Absolutely, he will be campaigned as a gold cup contender until the horse tells Willie otherwise. I would imagine he may start off in the Champion Chase at Down Royal, then on to the lexus and then we will know much more about whether he is a Gold Cup or a Ryanair horse. Willie's tend to need the run first time out so if he gets tired in the champion chase (or whatever race willie starts him off in) I wouldn't dismiss him as a non stayer straight away.

[Saxon Warrior]

Right, I might be making this up re: APT and Imperial AUra, but I swear I once read no winner of the Novice HCap chase has ever gone up to win another festival race. Is that true or have I invented it? Either way was my main reason not to back APT last season so I hope it was

I don't see any names for the last 10 years from the Novice Chase that have won again at the Festival.

APT was a standout winner, could have won the Plate by the same distance, and this year Imperial Aura was over 12 lengths clear of third place, so his win wasnt dissimilar to APT, except for potential improver Galvin (3&1/4 length behind).

Like any race, over time there will be a mix of good and not so good winners.

Maybe we have seen the last of that race anyway, when Cheltenham finally get to announce which race is going.

[Nortons who]

I've just checked and you're right, Rob. Rajdhani Express went on and won the Topham at Aintree a couple of years later but can't see that any have backed up with another win at the Festival.

This is correct but there have only been 15 runnings of the race prior to 2020 and the roll of honour doesn't exactly get the blood racing. Maybe Imperial Aura will fare better than his predecessors. Also im not giving up on A Plus Tard, especially as his lacklustre run in 2020 hasnt been explained.

[robith]

I’m convinced that the day one Allaho plan will be Gold Cup, I’m not saying it’s impossible he ends up landing here but the blue ribband has to be the initial target...

I agree - noise was they saw him as a Gold Cup horse and I think he ends up here only if the further distance is proven beyond him

[Hurricane fly]

I think they will go the Cue Card route with Allaho, Ryanair this year as a 7yr old and GC at 8.

For me he is still lightly raced and didn’t stay the RSA. I’d be hoping that no Punch helps mean it didn’t leave a mark on him and let him get a win under his belt in a big race before deciding if he can stay when he’s a bit more experienced.

[BigChaang]

Agreed Ista. Minella Indo and Alloha went at it from a long way out and I think it cost them both. More conservative rides would see both in better light, imo.

He may end up in the Ryanair but they should be given the opportunity to show hes a Gold Cup horse first.

Totally agree with this summary myself F-M & Istabraq.

[Saxon Warrior]

Allaho and A Plus Tard are both still 6yo, they have graced the Festival well in the last two years, and have generally been running against older horses in their races there.

APT would have been the first horse aged 6 to win the Ryanair in a decade, so to fall just short at that age, IMO, bodes well for another crack at 7yo.

I think Allaho going so close in an RSA does warrant a crack at the Gold Cup this season, or at least starting in the Graded 3M chases to see if he stays against the older horses in the open Grade 2's and 1's, before deciding whether to stick with the Gold Cup.

[Kevloaf]

I think people get carried away with handicap winners in general, for me Imperial Aura and Simply The Betts won't make the step up to be winning Grade 1's.

I think Simply The Betts will have done well to reach the level Saint Calvados is at. (Which he may well do). They've had a similar number of starts (16 to 14), same age (7). Through Oldgrangewood STB has half a stone or thereabouts to find too on Saint Calvados.

Saint Calvados at 20/1 doesn't thrill me to be honest, but I'd sooner take that than 25/1 about the two handicap winners. Not prices I wouldn't take at any stage, just no interest right now.

[Saxon Warrior]

I think people get carried away with handicap winners in general, for me Imperial Aura and Simply The Betts won't make the step up to be winning Grade 1's.

I think Simply The Betts will have done well to reach the level Saint Calvados is at. (Which he may well do). They've had a similar number of starts (16 to 14), same age (7). Through Oldgrangewood STB has half a stone or thereabouts to find too on Saint Calvados.

Saint Calvados at 20/1 doesn't thrill me to be honest, but I'd sooner take that than 25/1 about the two handicap winners. Not prices I wouldn't take at any stage, just no interest right now.

I would be the other way round with Saint C, I would take Imperial Aura over him, even though he is currently a handicapper.

[Kevloaf]

I would be the other way round with Saint C, I would take Imperial Aura over him, even though he is currently a handicapper.

A horse beaten by Pym is never going to win a Grade 1
Imperial Aura is more lightly raced, but is still the same age and too close to Simply The Betts to get me excited about winning a Grade 1 at the moment. I'd have him over Simply The Betts just about....

Ultimately there may not end up being a lot between them all when the shouting is over and they're retired but the two at bigger prices need to step up to my lovely SC's level before I would back them