Ryanair Chase 2021

[Saxon Warrior]

The Old Road seems a popular starting point for the UK based horses.

I should also add that this has always been a notoriously difficult race from an ante post perspective.
I’m sure in years gone by that most horses target the Champion Chase or Gold Cup and only land here if they have speed/stamina issues, that may well be changing but until that is proved over time for me It’s a race to swerve until very near race week (bar a few low stakes or free bet plays)

Agreed.

Maybe one day Cheltenham or Newbury or Haydock or Donny or Chepstow will have a programme including pre-Festival left-handed Graded 2M4F races, so we can build a proper Ryanair route through to the Festival for those that don't want to run on Right-handed tracks.

Its almost as if Cheltenham created the race and no-one at all in authority thought of a programme to build up to get there!

[Faugheen_Machine]

The Colin Parker Memorial race at Carlisle has been used as a prep for the Bet Victor. I remember Exotic Dancer going that route in the past.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The Colin Parker Memorial race at Carlisle has been used as a prep for the Bet Victor. I remember Exotic Dancer going that route in the past.

L'antartique for Ferdy as well, although he was rated a stone lower than IA.

[billymag]

Any thoughts on where they'll start off with IA? Rated 157, I wonder if they'll go for the Bet Victor off what will surely be close to top weight.

If all goes to plan he starts at Carlisle in the Colin Parker

[The King Pimm]

I personally think that if Angels Breath can get back to full racing fitness and his injury last season has no lingering psychological scars then he could be very competitive in the Ryanair. He was really impressive last year and appeared to have all the necessary skills to compete at the top. He’s a still 20/1 but I think this will half if he’s impresses next time out.

[Hardy Eustace]

I personally think that if Angels Breath can get back to full racing fitness and his injury last season has no lingering psychological scars then he could be very competitive in the Ryanair. He was really impressive last year and appeared to have all the necessary skills to compete at the top. He’s a still 20/1 but I think this will half if he’s impresses next time out.

He is one I have in my 'notebook' for the King George, top-priced 40/1 - haven't backed yet as want to hear he is OK post-injury (as it did sound like a bad one). 40/1 looks too big if fit and well.

[Faugheen_Machine]

If all goes to plan he starts at Carlisle in the Colin Parker

Thanks Billy. If crowds are allowed back, I'll probably go to Carlisle for that meeting.

[The King Pimm]

I’m thinking out the box here again when it makes more sense to do a bit more thinking in it but with Imperial Aura currently rated 160 and Simply the Betts rated 159 would it be possible either, if not both are aimed at the Ultima next season?? I personally don’t quite think they’ll be good enough next season to win the Ryanair. Unless they throw a few races they’ll end up near the top of the weights in the Ultima but it’s a more realistic race to win than the Ryanair.

[ryanh97]

I’m thinking out the box here again when it makes more sense to do a bit more thinking in it but with Imperial Aura currently rated 160 and Simply the Betts rated 159 would it be possible either, if not both are aimed at the Ultima next season?? I personally don’t quite think they’ll be good enough next season to win the Ryanair. Unless they throw a few races they’ll end up near the top of the weights in the Ultima but it’s a more realistic race to win than the Ryanair.

Have you seen IA priced up to win any race TKP? I can't seem to see it anywhere

[Middle_Of_March]

....Sky have a ‘special NH Double’; Allaho to win King George & Ryanair @ 100-1.

I would rarely say this but that 100/1 really is a terrible terrible price.

For that to happen:

1) Mullins changes his usual modus operandi and suddenly brings Allaho over for the king George.
2) Allaho is good enough to beat the British horses - including Clan Des Obeaux who’s been aimed at the race for 9 months.
3) Connections decide to drop a King George winner back in trip and ignore the temptation of a Gold Cup for the notoriously illustrious.. Ryanair Chase.
4) The horse is good enough to then win the Ryanair.


100s is so so poor. I don’t think I’d even back it at 200/1 let alone half the price.

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m thinking out the box here again when it makes more sense to do a bit more thinking in it but with Imperial Aura currently rated 160 and Simply the Betts rated 159 would it be possible either, if not both are aimed at the Ultima next season?? I personally don’t quite think they’ll be good enough next season to win the Ryanair. Unless they throw a few races they’ll end up near the top of the weights in the Ultima but it’s a more realistic race to win than the Ryanair.

Simply the Betts was one of my biggest bets of the week last year and I did think he was graded level. However, I don’t think he’s Ryanair quality. Let him run in a couple of early season top graded races to see if he’s good enough and if, as they probably would expect, he isn’t good enough for them, no harm done because they can then focus on getting his mark down for a double attempt at the Brown Plate.

[The King Pimm]

Have you seen IA priced up to win any race TKP? I can't seem to see it anywhere

No I was looking last night and he doesn’t. I’ll request him with Hills now Ryan

[Nortons who]

I have been taking a closer look at the Ryanair Chase to get a better understanding of the past winners (ages, official ratings, SPs), how the Favourites got on and also an indication as to whether running in this race the year before is significant.

There have been 16 runnings of this race over the intermediate distance of 2m 5f (registered as The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase).

Winners

2005 - Thisthatandtother - Age 9 - OR 155 - SP 9/2 - 12 ran
2006 - Fondmort - Age 10 - OR 157 - SP 100/30 Joint Fav - 11 ran
2007 - Taranis - Age 6 - OR 157 - SP 9/2 - 9 ran
2008 - Our Vic - Age 10 - OR 165 - SP 4/1 - 9 ran
2009 - Imperial Commander - Age 8 - OR 156 - SP 6/1 - 10 ran
2010 - Albertas Run - Age 9 - OR 162 - SP 14/1 - 13 ran
2011 - Albertas Run - Age 10 - OR 166 - SP 6/1 - 11 ran
2012 - Riverside Theatre - Age 8 - OR 168 - SP 7/2 Fav - 12 ran
2013 - Cue Card - Age 7 - OR 165 - SP 7/2 - 8 ran
2014 - Dynaste - Age 8 - OR 169 - SP 3/1 Fav - 11 ran
2015 - Uxizandre - Age 7 - OR 161 - SP 16/1 - 14 ran
2016 - Vautour - Age 7 - OR 176 - SP Evens Fav - 15 ran
2017 - Un De Sceaux - Age 9 - OR 171 - SP 7/4 Fav - 8 ran
2018 - Balko Des Flos - Age 7 - OR 166 - SP 8/1 - 6 ran
2019 - Frodon - Age 7 - OR 169 - SP 9/2 - 12 ran
2020 - Min - Age 9 - OR 170 - SP 2-1 - 8 ran

In respect of Age, 7 years olds seem to have done comparatvely well, winning 5 of the last 8 renewals. Overall the Age profile of winners is as follows. I have also shown the number of runners by Age group accross all 16 runnings.

Age 6 = 1 win / 16 races = 6% of races from only 8 runners (5% of the total).
Age 7 = 5 wins / 16 races = 30% of races from 28 runners (16% of the total).
Age 8 = 2 wins / 16 races = 12.5% of races from 51 runners (30% of the total).
Age 9 = 4 wins / 16 races = 25% of races from 43 runners (25% of the total).
Age 10 = 3 wins / 16 races = 19% of races from 24 runners (14% of the total).
Age 11 and over = 0 winners from 15 runners (9% of the total).

The number of runners per race has ranged from 6 to 15 which averages 10.5 runners. 75 % of the races had 8-12 runners.

In the 16 runnings, the Favourites have won 5 times (including 1 Joint Favourite) and been placed 6 times (2nd x 4 , 3rd x 2). Backing these Favourites at SP win only 1 point level stakes would have incurred bets of 17 points with a return of 17.58, resulting in a meagre net profit of 0.58 points.

The SP of the Winner has ranged from Evens (Vautour) to 16-1 Uxizandre, with only 2 winners being in double figures. 50% of Winners had an SP in the range 3-1 to 9-2.

The pre race Official Rating of the Winner has ranged from 155 to 176 (Vautour), averaging 164.5. Four of the first 5 runnings of the race were won by horses rated in the 150s but none since 2009, so the OR has drifted upwards averaging 167.5 since then.

One of the aspects I was keen to know more about is the trend for horses returning to run in the race the following year. Of the 161 horses between 2005 and 2019 which potentially could have run in the race the following year only 33 did, which equates to around 20 %. Of these 33 returning runners, there were 4 winners of 15 races (27%) with Albertas Run being the only dual winner.

Returning runners achieved 4 victories from 33 selections (12%) compared with those which didn't run the previous year which achieved 11 victories from 129 selections (8.5%).

The numbers of returning runners in the Ryanair (averaging around 2 per season) seem quite low to me and backing them all blindly at SP 1 point win level stakes would have incurred bets of 33 points with only 21.33 in return.

As to my own conclusions having looked a bit more into the data:

# Backing the Favourites at SP won't make much of a profit.
# 7 year olds have statistically won more races but overall the Age range 7-9 has won 69% of races and the last 9 renewals.
# In terms of returnning runners, only around 20% based on past runnings will run in the race the following year and only Albertas Run has doubled up. So on this basis I won't be backing MIn Ante Post and I doubt I would back him SP either given that 10 year olds in this race have a 19% win rate.
# Although 3 winners have had pre-race ORs in the 170s, 6 horses with 170s ratings have also been beaten.
# Based on the evidence to date there is an 80/20 probability that the 2021 Ryanair Chase winner won't have run in the race in 2020.

[Lobos]

Nice Norton's. Min out, Allaho in.

[robith]

Right, I might be making this up re: APT and Imperial AUra, but I swear I once read no winner of the Novice HCap chase has ever gone up to win another festival race. Is that true or have I invented it? Either way was my main reason not to back APT last season so I hope it was