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The biggest thing against Chantry going to the Gold Cup is..........Champ. Henderson and McCoy seem absolutely hell bent on making him a Gold Cup horse. They are desperate for him to get there in good shape and put in a performance. Its becoming embarrassing. For me, this will be the reason CH ends up in the Ryanair.
In which race Do you think Champ will prove himself.
And they aren't daft.
Winners of the big graded races these days are usually 7 or 8, maybe 9 at a push in the QM and GC.
Tbh I think the King George isn't likely to prove much. Feels like plenty of horses (especially ones who lack a change of gear a la Chantry House imo) wouldn't excel there (I think he'll stay into a place). It just feels like everything against Chantry House is very much how he looks on the eye. For the Gold Cup, I want a horse with class (I think he has that, a horse that can place in a supreme and stay three miles suggests that to me) and can stay (obviously won't know til he tries, but he stays 3 miles and hardly screams a speed merchant to me).
His running style, sort of off the bridle but still galloping and willing reminds me of some other Gold cup winners like Bob's Worth, Don Cossack. Not flashy but if he's there as they start coming up the hill, you'd fancy his chances.
In which race Do you think Champ will prove himself.
And they aren't daft.
Winners of the big graded races these days are usually 7 or 8, maybe 9 at a push in the QM and GC.
That's my feeling, I mean, they have to try doing something with the horse (Champ) and what else is there? I wouldn't see it as negative - I dont think anyone thinks Champ lacks the talent to be a top horse so it's his connections' job to try. But ultimately, for a punting point of view, he is, for want of a better word, icky.
In which race Do you think Champ will prove himself.
And they aren't daft.
Winners of the big graded races these days are usually 7 or 8, maybe 9 at a push in the QM and GC.
I have no idea Q. Possibly the Cotswold Chase on trials day ?
Not one for going back to PtP form, as it's often meaningless.
But for people that do look back that far, Chantry House won 2/3 Points over 3 miles, staying on well on each occasion, his defeat was on debut against Monkfish when he quickened up to third last in the lead and UR.
I'd say that's Bullshit in terms of useful in a debate like this, but others do it all the time, so there you go.
For those put off by the way CH travels (definitely makes him seem less impressive), its hard to find a horse NDB rides that doesn't look off the bridle by halfway even if they hack up. He travelled quite differently under BG in his Novice Hurdle season, even in the Supreme.
Of all the 10 year olds to back.
At that price.
He would be the one.
I'm waiting on an entry.
Yep! Mullins mentioned he'd be running more this year.....his record outside Cheltenham is good without being spectacular. I see myself betting quite small before he runs to cover him, and if he runs with credit without winning, topping up on the day if his price holds with the bookies' promotions
Yep! Mullins mentioned he'd be running more this year.....his record outside Cheltenham is good without being spectacular. I see myself betting quite small before he runs to cover him, and if he runs with credit without winning, topping up on the day if his price holds with the bookies' promotions
I want to see an entry so I can make a call on if I think it's winnable or not.
He's actually a decent option at 4-1 for the place bet on Skybet, that charlie has been focusing on.
Last edited by Quevega; 8 November 2021, 08:01 PM.
And this guesswork about not being able to stay that you and some others mention.
What basis do you have for this ?
It just seems like something to say, when it makes more sense to just say you don't fancy it.
The pedigree points to him being able to stay well enough. Yeats has produced several stayers, including one or two of your personal favourites.
Obviously only one horse will stay the best in this years Gold Cup, so if every horse is judged against that ideal, and are therefore non stayers, then the odds are in the nay-sayers favour.
But a horse that has not tried the trip but has won over three miles by a distance twice, it just seems like a blurt.
How many second season chasers (by far the most successful category for winning the race) run in the Gold cup having raced over 3 miles 2f ? - Not many !
'Not interesting' will do (bold and underlined is to me what polls are to you)
1. Yeats is not a tick in the plus column for producing winning staying chasers. If anything, they tend to be over priced and under deliver. The FP point is irrelevant as he's been there and done that (and, is laughably a bigger price in a more winnable race that he's already won - we don't need to discuss FP in a GC thread do we?).
2. As a novice stepping into open company untried over the GC trip vs proper G1 opposition, what do I have at this stage of the season other than guesswork? Thats all I have. It's all you have, especially when coming onto my next point.....
3. Were he 20/1 or 25/1 (which is what I think he should be) then I'd probably park my reservations re trip, but he's as short as 9/1 for a Gold Cup when last years winner is 6/1. They are in a different parish in terms of their credentials and CH deserves proper scrutiny at that price, which is what I'm giving him. As far as I'm concerned it's for those who like him to make a case for why he's a good bet at 9/1 in the absence of substance that should inform that short price, than it is for those who don't like him to explain why that price is shit, which it is (and hopefully, what I'm doing )
4. At Aintree, Nico niggled him throughout the race and I thought Bailey's had his number. He looked slightly out of his comfort zone at the pace they set IMO and I don't think he would have won. I know it was the end of the season and he could have been tired, and obviously he could improve chunks (and he might have already), but he's priced up as if he has already made that improvement and ran to a proper grade 1 level in open company, which he hasn't.
So yeh, legitimate reasons I think
Saying he 'has won over three miles by a distance twice' is the ultimate blurt, no?
The race the other day is barely worth mentioning and we've discussed TBB being a future handicapper, and at Aintree he looked beat before EDR tipped up. If those wide margin wins are enough to inform 9/1 in a Gold Cup then markets have well and truly gone to shit (which obviously isn't your fault, just an observation).
I'd also add, that whilst I have massive respect for Nicky, I think he thinks of Champ as his GC number 1 and if JP has another that emerges I wouldn't put it past CH ending up in the Ryanair, so you don't at this stage with that price even have certainty this is the target.
Yep! Mullins mentioned he'd be running more this year.....his record outside Cheltenham is good without being spectacular. I see myself betting quite small before he runs to cover him, and if he runs with credit without winning, topping up on the day if his price holds with the bookies' promotions
Why would this be considered a positive?
He won 2 gold cups by being lightly raced, this busier schedule implies to me this is a horse they know isn’t good enough to win a gold cup anymore and will now run more often to pot hunt prize money throughout the season.
Why would this be considered a positive?
He won 2 gold cups by being lightly raced, this busier schedule implies to me this is a horse they know isn’t good enough to win a gold cup anymore and will now run more often to pot hunt prize money throughout the season.
Not saying its a negative (or positive) that he's running more - just that it gives punters more options to consider. Should we bet on him now before he runs? Given his overall record, might not be needed (he hasn't always beaten the best horses outside of Cheltenham). He may be a similar price on the day (I think he'll be around 12/1 so may be worth just waiting). There is of course a chance he beats whatever he faces beforehand and shortens (hence, I intend to cover small beforehand and will cover more on the day (assuming nothing too notable happens beforehand)
'Not interesting' will do (bold and underlined is to me what polls are to you)
1. Yeats is not a tick in the plus column for producing winning staying chasers. If anything, they tend to be over priced and under deliver. The FP point is irrelevant as he's been there and done that (and, is laughably a bigger price in a more winnable race that he's already won - we don't need to discuss FP in a GC thread do we?).
2. As a novice stepping into open company untried over the GC trip vs proper G1 opposition, what do I have at this stage of the season other than guesswork? Thats all I have. It's all you have, especially when coming onto my next point.....
3. Were he 20/1 or 25/1 (which is what I think he should be) then I'd probably park my reservations re trip, but he's as short as 9/1 for a Gold Cup when last years winner is 6/1. They are in a different parish in terms of their credentials and CH deserves proper scrutiny at that price, which is what I'm giving him. As far as I'm concerned it's for those who like him to make a case for why he's a good bet at 9/1 in the absence of substance that should inform that short price, than it is for those who don't like him to explain why that price is shit, which it is (and hopefully, what I'm doing )
4. At Aintree, Nico niggled him throughout the race and I thought Bailey's had his number. He looked slightly out of his comfort zone at the pace they set IMO and I don't think he would have won. I know it was the end of the season and he could have been tired, and obviously he could improve chunks (and he might have already), but he's priced up as if he has already made that improvement and ran to a proper grade 1 level in open company, which he hasn't.
So yeh, legitimate reasons I think
Saying he 'has won over three miles by a distance twice' is the ultimate blurt, no?
The race the other day is barely worth mentioning and we've discussed TBB being a future handicapper, and at Aintree he looked beat before EDR tipped up. If those wide margin wins are enough to inform 9/1 in a Gold Cup then markets have well and truly gone to shit (which obviously isn't your fault, just an observation).
I'd also add, that whilst I have massive respect for Nicky, I think he thinks of Champ as his GC number 1 and if JP has another that emerges I wouldn't put it past CH ending up in the Ryanair, so you don't at this stage with that price even have certainty this is the target.
Lot better reasoning.
Obviously more details and less nothing than what I originally responded too.
I agree with the price. But you could say that about 98% of horses by this time of the season. It’s an easy throw in during a debate but a separate issue to what’s been discussed just now.
I don’t agree with the Yeats comments as he clearly produces stayers. Which was my only point. And less of a guess than yours.
And finally the 2 races he won when another horse fell contained other horses. And if he was out of his comfort zone at aintree then they must have been near death.
it’s unfair on him to downplay those wins IMO
although I did originally.
but we all have to change our minds sometimes, and admit we’re wrong. Like you with honeysuckle who didn’t have the pace and couldn’t jump at one point.
Im not a massive fan myself but not cos I don’t think he’ll stay or was lucky to win his graded races at the festivals. And definitely not cos Nicky thinks champ is number one.
im not a massive fan cos of the price he was and is.
I kind of ignored him originally partly cos of the falls also but have since watched the races several times and noted the subsequent form and now give him more credit than that. Which is why I backed at 16-1 which is probably right on the button of fair.
Last edited by Quevega; 9 November 2021, 09:13 AM.
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