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2022 Champion Hurdle

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  • (Though I hope she does win it, regardless of today’s prices, ‘cos I’ll be a tiny bit richer than backing Sharjah each way at 12/1!)

    Was just trying to highlight a tiny bit of value. Which I believe still exists with Sharjah.

    16/1 Honeysuckle, Sharjah & Epatante to finish in the top 3 in any order with SKYBet also holds some appeal, I feel.

    Comment


    • There is undoubtedly an issue with new 2m hurdlers coming through.....as flat horses that had previously been sent to NH are now being sold to Asia

      However, the competition is still not as bad as often talked about and Honeysuckle is a truly exceptional mare....and one that we should just enjoy whilst we are lucky to have her racing

      Honeysuckle's win last year achieved the same RPR as Hurricane Fly at his best (after mare's allowance) and those two at 173 are the best in last decade. We also still have Sharjah who has 2 seconds in the race and usually runs high 160s (the new My Tent?) and a previous winner in Epatante

      And for those knocking the allowance.....let us be grateful we have these top mares entering NH racing.....as with the loss of the middle distance flat horses, they are providing some quality

      Champions also draw crowds and engage new people in the sport......Honeysuckle, like Tiger Roll.....and even more so Rachael Blackmore are doing more in a positive way for NH racing than anyone in years

      I will like everyone hope some of this year's top novices go hurdling next year, but would also be delighted if Honeysuckle won this year and next
      Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

        She is good, but that good that last seasons good novice winners should avoid? Cos nothing else could rescue this race.
        Looks to me like the connections want chasers these days, and if that is the case, what happens when we don’t have Honeysuckle around?
        Last seasons novice chase winners, Appreciate It and Bob Olinger are both from a p2p background, a bit like Honeysuckle herself, though their builds compared with her scream of being chasers, so yeah, I can see why they would go chasing with them. There is still a possibility Appreciate It doesn't take to fences, so he could still end up in the Champion Hurdle.

        I think another issue with them going for a Champion Hurdle is the 7lb allowance. When a mare is as good as she is, you're not just giving any old horse 7lbs, you're giving an absolutely brilliant one 7lbs, so what are the incentives?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Bollinger View Post

          I must confess, I owe half an apology, as I hadn’t seen any prices this morning - the last I checked last night she was trading pretty much at evens across the board, with touches of 11/10.

          Now it’s 4/5 across the board, with a few chinks of light at evens. And as you rightly say, Boylesports are only offering 4/7 (maybe they have a huge liability with a specific ‘5 figure’ bet, staked at 3/1 much earlier this year? It could have the potential to explain their price this early out.

          And at 4/5 now, with looking at how Shishkin & Envoi A shortened in the timeframe last year between the end of November and the festival (eventually both to 4/9), you could make a strong point Honeysuckle might trend that way.

          If she does, then to my knowledge, she’d be the shortest priced favourite (among the event’s many superstar hurdlers) ever at flag fall of the Champion Hurdle. That’s why I suggested 2/5 was out of the question in theory. But with the market as they currently stand, there’s potential for her to shorten near enough to it.

          The 12/1 currently on Sharjah as an each way play looks like an exceptionally good price if you can get 1/4 the odds. But even the 1/5 odds might still make some appeal.
          Could easily envisage her going off around 2/5 if we see short priced winners of the Supreme & Arkle earlier in the day, roll up liabilities will be huge.

          Comment


          • best part of 4 months until the Festival , plenty to go wrong yet , even money shots at the festival at this stage is ridiculous , granted she is wonderful , but she is a filly and can go off form ask quickly as she is in it , wait and see job imo

            Comment


            • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

              Last seasons novice chase winners, Appreciate It and Bob Olinger are both from a p2p background, a bit like Honeysuckle herself, though their builds compared with her scream of being chasers, so yeah, I can see why they would go chasing with them. There is still a possibility Appreciate It doesn't take to fences, so he could still end up in the Champion Hurdle.

              I think another issue with them going for a Champion Hurdle is the 7lb allowance. When a mare is as good as she is, you're not just giving any old horse 7lbs, you're giving an absolutely brilliant one 7lbs, so what are the incentives?
              Yep, I totally get horses bred to go chasing, go chasing.
              I would just like to see more of the good horses lining up in a Champion Hurdle, it’s becoming rarer and rarer for that happening.
              The mares are taking over this race now……the lack of quality staying hurdling and the allowance. Guess we need more quality mares then to get a decent CH line up……or more flat bred types.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

                Yep, I totally get horses bred to go chasing, go chasing.
                I would just like to see more of the good horses lining up in a Champion Hurdle, it’s becoming rarer and rarer for that happening.
                The mares are taking over this race now……the lack of quality staying hurdling and the allowance. Guess we need more quality mares then to get a decent CH line up……or more flat bred types.
                They just need to alter the age limit in the bumper to 5.

                And ban novices from all handicaps at the festival, except the martin pipe (which they should make for novices only) and re introduce the novice handicap chase at 2m 4f.
                Both these should be limited to 145 or even 140. These fields would be heavily compressed and very competitive.

                This should ensure more novices are ran competitively throughout the season. And more competitive and bigger field graded races on the day. I think it may even mean more novices try the open grade 1's at the festival as well (the very best ones)

                This should really help filter through more of them staying over hurdles for another season, from an age point of view, and with trainers knowing if they don't come up to scratch at grade 1 open level they still can go handicapping at the following festival without some dodgy novices mopping them up.

                Appreciate It would have had another year hurdling I reckon, had he not been allowed to win the bumper at 6.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                  They just need to alter the age limit in the bumper to 5.


                  This should really help filter through more of them staying over hurdles for another season, from an age point of view, and with trainers knowing if they don't come up to scratch at grade 1 open level they still can go handicapping at the following festival without some dodgy novices mopping them up.

                  Yep, some one else alluded to this a week or two back.
                  Since they did away with the 5yo age allowance in novice chases it is virtually impossible for there to be any 5yo winner outside of handicaps, and this is why they're campaigned with big March/April handicap pots in mind...

                  Comment


                  • I think the Mares races plan/programme has worked and now everyone can see they are worth buying and racing, and with the allowance or even without in the handicaps they are very competitive if not better. So no need to segregate at the festival I reckon.

                    So all the mares races could now be scrapped at the festival IMO.

                    This would help us all stomach a mid trip Championship race for hurdlers.
                    especially with the limits on novices in handicaps I previously suggested.

                    I'd probably place a limit on the open handicaps too at about 155 (maybe 160), forcing horses rated higher to run in graded races. Where they should be.

                    In industries like this. They'll never rip it up and start again, but they should.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Liammet View Post
                      Personally I think Rachel and Honeysuckle are a great story and advertisement for our sport
                      Just enjoy them
                      There are other ways of having a bet on the race
                      Aspire Tower each way @ 50/1 is too big a price in my opinion
                      Only has to make up 1 1/2 lengths on last year to do so
                      Might improve for the extra year too
                      One I like too, just noticed bet365 have pushed him out to 66/1

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by MTR View Post

                        One I like too, just noticed bet365 have pushed him out to 66/1
                        I was looking to see of he was entered anywhere at xmas.
                        Can't see he has.
                        Maybe B365 have seen this, and putting the squeeze on cash out.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                          I was looking to see of he was entered anywhere at xmas.
                          Can't see he has.
                          Maybe B365 have seen this, and putting the squeeze on cash out.
                          Have a look at Matt tombs on Twitter @thespieler - he’s seems to have aspire tower down as entered.

                          I’ve backed at 50/1 and just had a tiny top up at 66/1 could seen him getting a place.

                          ignore the first part, he clearly says horses “not entered”

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by MTR View Post

                            Have a look at Matt tombs on Twitter @thespieler - he’s seems to have aspire tower down as entered.

                            I’ve backed at 50/1 and just had a tiny top up at 66/1 could seen him getting a place.

                            ignore the first part, he clearly says horses “not entered”
                            DJ on UTA mentioned he's out until Christmas or after Christmas but that is as much as I've heard about him.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by HoldenTheReins View Post

                              DJ on UTA mentioned he's out until Christmas or after Christmas but that is as much as I've heard about him.
                              Yeah just gave it a listen and Jennings says he out till after Christmas maybe even till Christmas. So all good you’d assume if he has targets after Xmas.
                              Last edited by MTR; 29 November 2021, 04:23 PM. Reason: Spelling

                              Comment


                              • People are always in a hurry to go chasing, and it doesn't look like any of the good novices are sticking around for a crack at this again. Just the juveniles and they always disappoint.

                                I'd have loved to have seen Ferny Hollow held back a season for this.
                                Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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