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Fat Jockey Day One Yankee - Captain: nortonscoin200

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  • #76
    Originally posted by Lobos View Post
    Galvin
    Honeysuckle
    Concertista
    Appreciate It


    Boring I know.
    Very much like the Irish angle though

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post

      Very much like the Irish angle though
      Didn't even think of that. I just think they are all likely winners and are all currently still odds against so It looks the sensible bet.

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Lobos View Post

        Didn't even think of that. I just think they are all likely winners and are all currently still odds against so It looks the sensible bet.
        Since when has Cheltenham been that easy that all four day1 hot pots win? Plus two of those will shorten up dramatically by the time we place this bet. I’d rather take a shot at a bigger return than something that is overly “safe”.

        Comment


        • #79
          Do we still like Galvin as much now?

          Reluctantly have to admit that given the huge Codd-shaped edge has been removed, he's a not bombproof or particularly good value anymore.

          He still has obvious claims, but is he a must-have now? I'm not so sure....

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by Kautostar View Post

            Since when has Cheltenham been that easy that all four day1 hot pots win? Plus two of those will shorten up dramatically by the time we place this bet. I’d rather take a shot at a bigger return than something that is overly “safe”.
            Since Annie fell at the last I suppose. Soz, thought the option was to do it now. I'll get back into my shell

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
              Do we still like Galvin as much now?

              Reluctantly have to admit that given the huge Codd-shaped edge has been removed, he's a not bombproof or particularly good value anymore.

              He still has obvious claims, but is he a must-have now? I'm not so sure....
              At this stage no. If latest exhibition or royal pagaille (unlikely imo) turn up then I’d expect him to be beaten. Losing the amateur advantage with Codd is also a huge negative. He might still win but he’s not good value now.

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by Kautostar View Post

                With all the well informed minds of this forum I’m sure we can find something a bit more exciting than that! Let’s find the boodles and ultima winners and get paid
                Happygolucky & Glorious Zoff or Druids Altar.

                All already been highlighted on the forum and the Spectre plunge (which I have a seat on board the train) has seen the price drop on Happygolucky with Saxon highlighting the 2 boodles horses with his brilliant Irish Racing diary.

                The other 2 for me is Ballyadam, I really fancy this horse to reverse the form with Appreciate It on better ground and Gordon’s horses are coming good after a quiet Christmas period & DRF by his high standards. I expect Gordon to finish ahead of Willie with winners and peak when it matters at Cheltenham. Gordon has the Handicaps sewn up with his 59 entries IMHO, the Triumph & Marsh as well. I also joined Lobos early with Shattered Love in the Mares Chase and think she will run a big race against Elimay. Galvin in the NHC, Sir Gerard in the Bumper, dual champion winner Sire Du Berlais in the Stayers & has 2 great darts in the potato race, possible 3 if Farouk is still all systems go.

                Big Gordie could be walking away with double figure winners this year. From memory 7 / 8 winners is the most at a festival and I expect Gordon to break the record this year.

                The Irish could easily walk away with 20 winners this year and it would not surprise me at all. I am struggling to find 7 British winners scanning through the entries​​​​​​.

                The last horse I would go for is Longhouse poet again case already made. Understand he will probably be single figures on the day though but should still be an E/W play and possible could get 10/1 if lucky and a few at the head of the market hold there entry. I do think ( & hope) Galvin will be the winner, but would have Longhouse Poet to pick up the pieces should anything happen Galvin.

                With Sky Bet likely to go 6 places in the Ultima & Boodles I think this has a solid shout for a day 1 E/W Yankee.

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by Attaglance View Post

                  Happygolucky & Glorious Zoff or Druids Altar.

                  All already been highlighted on the forum and the Spectre plunge (which I have a seat on board the train) has seen the price drop on Happygolucky with Saxon highlighting the 2 boodles horses with his brilliant Irish Racing diary.

                  The other 2 for me is Ballyadam, I really fancy this horse to reverse the form with Appreciate It on better ground and Gordon’s horses are coming good after a quiet Christmas period & DRF by his high standards. I expect Gordon to finish ahead of Willie with winners and peak when it matters at Cheltenham. Gordon has the Handicaps sewn up with his 59 entries IMHO, the Triumph & Marsh as well. I also joined Lobos early with Shattered Love in the Mares Chase and think she will run a big race against Elimay. Galvin in the NHC, Sir Gerard in the Bumper, dual champion winner Sire Du Berlais in the Stayers & has 2 great darts in the potato race, possible 3 if Farouk is still all systems go.

                  Big Gordie could be walking away with double figure winners this year. From memory 7 / 8 winners is the most at a festival and I expect Gordon to break the record this year.

                  The Irish could easily walk away with 20 winners this year and it would not surprise me at all. I am struggling to find 7 British winners scanning through the entries​​​​​​.

                  The last horse I would go for is Longhouse poet again case already made. Understand he will probably be single figures on the day though but should still be an E/W play and possible could get 10/1 if lucky and a few at the head of the market hold there entry. I do think ( & hope) Galvin will be the winner, but would have Longhouse Poet to pick up the pieces should anything happen Galvin.

                  With Sky Bet likely to go 6 places in the Ultima & Boodles I think this has a solid shout for a day 1 E/W Yankee.
                  I like it, might even add that one myself.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Or you could just go all out on Day 1 with Gordon for this:
                    • Ballyadam - Supreme
                    • Abracadras - Champion
                    • Glorious Zoff or Riviere Detel - Boodles
                    • Galvin - NHC
                    Possible more a win Yankee with the prices shortening...

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Originally posted by Attaglance View Post
                      Or you could just go all out on Day 1 with Gordon for this:
                      • Ballyadam - Supreme
                      • Abracadras - Champion
                      • Glorious Zoff or Riviere Detel - Boodles
                      • Galvin - NHC
                      Possible more a win Yankee with the prices shortening...
                      Prefer your first effort tbh

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by Attaglance View Post

                        Happygolucky & Glorious Zoff or Druids Altar.

                        All already been highlighted on the forum and the Spectre plunge (which I have a seat on board the train) has seen the price drop on Happygolucky with Saxon highlighting the 2 boodles horses with his brilliant Irish Racing diary.

                        The other 2 for me is Ballyadam, I really fancy this horse to reverse the form with Appreciate It on better ground and Gordon’s horses are coming good after a quiet Christmas period & DRF by his high standards. I expect Gordon to finish ahead of Willie with winners and peak when it matters at Cheltenham. Gordon has the Handicaps sewn up with his 59 entries IMHO, the Triumph & Marsh as well. I also joined Lobos early with Shattered Love in the Mares Chase and think she will run a big race against Elimay. Galvin in the NHC, Sir Gerard in the Bumper, dual champion winner Sire Du Berlais in the Stayers & has 2 great darts in the potato race, possible 3 if Farouk is still all systems go.

                        Big Gordie could be walking away with double figure winners this year. From memory 7 / 8 winners is the most at a festival and I expect Gordon to break the record this year.

                        The Irish could easily walk away with 20 winners this year and it would not surprise me at all. I am struggling to find 7 British winners scanning through the entries​​​​​​.

                        The last horse I would go for is Longhouse poet again case already made. Understand he will probably be single figures on the day though but should still be an E/W play and possible could get 10/1 if lucky and a few at the head of the market hold there entry. I do think ( & hope) Galvin will be the winner, but would have Longhouse Poet to pick up the pieces should anything happen Galvin.

                        With Sky Bet likely to go 6 places in the Ultima & Boodles I think this has a solid shout for a day 1 E/W Yankee.
                        Some bold shouts in there, like some of them a lot.

                        "Gordon has the Handicaps sewn up with his 59 entries IMHO, the Triumph & Marsh as well."




                        I think Appreciate It wins the Supreme but can very much see the merit in Ballyadam as an alternative.... it's not ridiculous to think he could reverse the form. I don't think he will, but I get it

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                          Do we still like Galvin as much now?

                          Reluctantly have to admit that given the huge Codd-shaped edge has been removed, he's a not bombproof or particularly good value anymore.

                          He still has obvious claims, but is he a must-have now? I'm not so sure....
                          Reluctantly (pocket talking) agree.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by Attaglance View Post

                            Happygolucky & Glorious Zoff or Druids Altar.

                            All already been highlighted on the forum and the Spectre plunge (which I have a seat on board the train) has seen the price drop on Happygolucky with Saxon highlighting the 2 boodles horses with his brilliant Irish Racing diary.

                            The other 2 for me is Ballyadam, I really fancy this horse to reverse the form with Appreciate It on better ground and Gordon’s horses are coming good after a quiet Christmas period & DRF by his high standards. I expect Gordon to finish ahead of Willie with winners and peak when it matters at Cheltenham. Gordon has the Handicaps sewn up with his 59 entries IMHO, the Triumph & Marsh as well. I also joined Lobos early with Shattered Love in the Mares Chase and think she will run a big race against Elimay. Galvin in the NHC, Sir Gerard in the Bumper, dual champion winner Sire Du Berlais in the Stayers & has 2 great darts in the potato race, possible 3 if Farouk is still all systems go.

                            Big Gordie could be walking away with double figure winners this year. From memory 7 / 8 winners is the most at a festival and I expect Gordon to break the record this year.

                            The Irish could easily walk away with 20 winners this year and it would not surprise me at all. I am struggling to find 7 British winners scanning through the entries​​​​​​.

                            The last horse I would go for is Longhouse poet again case already made. Understand he will probably be single figures on the day though but should still be an E/W play and possible could get 10/1 if lucky and a few at the head of the market hold there entry. I do think ( & hope) Galvin will be the winner, but would have Longhouse Poet to pick up the pieces should anything happen Galvin.

                            With Sky Bet likely to go 6 places in the Ultima & Boodles I think this has a solid shout for a day 1 E/W Yankee.

                            Love this Attaglance - great stuff.

                            Reckon two/three/four of these could well make the final line-up if we take the each-way route.

                            If we can persuade Spectre to go easy on HAPPYGOLUCKY we might still get a double figure price come final decs.

                            Also like LONGHOUSE POET if we could grab double figures on him.

                            I'm with you on Ballyadam having a realistic chance of turning the tables with Appreciate It on better ground.

                            But I can see his price collapsing to maybe 9-2 or 5-1 come final decs. At that sort of price he's not quite so attractive in my view.

                            Glorious Zoff is still a decent price (though I see he is getting support) and is certainly one to consider. reckon there could be some decent value in this race.

                            Not sure Druid's Altar is one for me in this. Seems a bit keen in his races and I'd worry he'd get picked off and maybe not get up the hill.

                            But for the time being how about we use this as a template for an each way Day One yankee - and challenge everyone to COME UP WITH SOMETHING BETTER that will knock one or more of them off their perch.

                            Ballyadam currently 7-1 (all nrnb best prices)
                            Happygolucky 10-1
                            Glorious Zoff 20-1
                            Longhouse Poet 12-1

                            2.2pt total stake returns 33665 pts.
                            Last edited by nortonscoin200; 26 February 2021, 02:45 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              So as Julie Andrews once said: "How do you solve a problem like .........Quilixios?"

                              The Boodles was supposed to be one of the two handicap races to boost our each way yankee.

                              But if Quilixios comes here we seem to have three choices regarding the each way play:

                              1. Take on a very strong favourite likely to go off around 2-1 at most.

                              2. Ignore the race and pick 4 from elsewhere.

                              3. Scrap the each way play and go for a win only yankee.

                              This issue has reminded me that as ante-post punters we are always treading on very thin ice.

                              You can find the right horse at a great price but some totally unexpected turn of events can suddenly blow you out of the water.

                              Personally, if Quilixios gets in the Boodles off 147 with a good 7lb claimer on board I wouldn't be desperate to take him on.

                              He'll be carrying 11st 3lbs and only giving 3lbs to a professionally ridden horse on 137.

                              Glorious Zoff (off 130) would get 10lbs. Which one would you back?

                              Maybe a fourth option would be to back something in the Boodles each way without Quilixios.

                              On the constantly shifting sands that form the rocky road to Cheltenham - which route should we take?

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Appreciate It 7-4

                                Shishkin 1-1

                                Happygolucky 6-1

                                Honeysuckle 5-2

                                Concertista 5-4

                                Quilixios 5-1

                                Royale Pagaille 2-1

                                We already have 7 pretty short price favourites on Day One and at least FOUR of them are going to get beaten - in fact it's highly likely that FIVE of them will get turned over.

                                The stats for the last 5 years show just 10 winning favourites out of 35 races on Day One.

                                So that's an average of exactly 2 winning favourites each year - and never more than three.

                                But 27 of the 35 races were won by horses starting at 10-1 or less - that's 77 per cent.

                                Only one winner went off at greater than 16-1 on Day One in the last 5 years.

                                So which favourites are we going to take on?

                                Or maybe it's easier to ask which two/three favourites are we either going to get onside or avoid taking on?

                                I only decided to take a look at these stats because it now seems likely the Festival will start on good to soft ground for the first time since 2017.

                                My theory was that maybe the class horses find it easier to win on a sound surface and that the soft ground over the last 3 years has been a leveller.

                                But the stats just don't back up that notion.

                                In 2016 it was good to soft (soft in places) and 3 favourites won.

                                In 2017 it was good to soft and 1 favourite won.

                                In 2018 it was heavy (soft in places) and 3 favourites won.

                                In 2019 it was soft and 1 favourite won.

                                In 2020 it was soft (heavy in places) and 2 favourites (including 1 joint fav) won.

                                So how does this help us with the Day One yankee.

                                I'm inclined to think it means the best strategy might still be to go with the each way yankee rather than on the nose.

                                As for the favourites, assuming another average year with only two favs winning, here's how I see it playing out:

                                Happygolucky is going to win, it's not even open for discussion, this is written in the Spectral Scriptures.

                                And I'd take Shishkin to be the other winning favourite. But I'm certainly not saying we should include him in the each way yankee. Maybe just leave the Arkle alone.

                                If Royale Pagaille rocks up in the NH Chase he takes the pressure off Galvin who will turn him over on a sound surface.

                                So now we just need a couple of others to turn over favourites in 2 of the other 4 races.

                                My first choice would be the Boodles where we may not be looking at Quilixios as favourite if his move heralds a change of plan.

                                Then it gets tricky but I reckon Ballyadam, Abacadabras and either Dame De Compagnie or Black Tears could come into the reckoning.

                                So the each way yankee could look something like:

                                Ballyadam
                                Happygolucky
                                Busselton
                                Galvin

                                That's only an idea - I'm sure others have better ones. Let's discuss them.

                                Here are the Day One winning SPs for the last 5 years with the National Trust/Close Bros Chase now replaced by the Boodles (2020 results first):

                                Supreme: 6-1, 6-1, 9-1,25-1, 4-1

                                Arkle: 16-1, 5-1, 5-6F, 1-4F, 1-4F

                                Ultima: 15-2, 10-1, 5-1F, 9-1, 11-1

                                CH: 2-1F, 16-1, 4-6F, 5-1, 5-2F

                                Mares H. 9-4, 10-1, 9-2, 7-2, 4-6F

                                NT/CBC. 4-1JF, 5-1F, 13-2, 8-1, 12-1

                                NHC. 12-1,14-1,9-2,16-1,8-1

                                As you can see, the best races for the favourites over this period are the Arkle and Champion Hurdle with 3 apiece.

                                The worst are the Supreme and the NHC where the favourites have drawn a complete blank for the last 5 years.










                                Last edited by nortonscoin200; 4 March 2021, 10:49 AM.

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