Fat Jockey Day One Yankee - Captain: nortonscoin200

[Quevega]

Jonjo says Doncaster then aintree for cloth

[nortonscoin200]

I'd also be in the camp of making Galvin a day 1 banker. I think it's the kind of day to play three shorter price horses with a haymaker.

I agree with Kev that the Ultima is one of the more 'gettable' handicaps of the week. The right one for most will be The Conditional, but he may go for the Gold Cup so waiting for the Denman Chase and seeing what connections say seems advisable. He isn't the one I'd nominate though.

Whatmore has an excellent profile for this. 4th behind Imperial Aura and Galvin last season over an inadequate two and half miles, stepping up in trip after running a big race at last seasons Festival makes gives him a nice profile for this.

Jonjo is in flying form and Cloth Cap surely heads here and still looks attractively handicapped. He's got form in all the right races, and it would hardly be unusual to see a Trevor Hemmings horse run well in the race. He wasn't given the best of rides in the Kim Muir last season, when he was never properly put in the race. Anyway he looks a much better horse this season, and he'll be a contender.

Farclas will come here with a lofty reputiation but he may have too much weight if Gordon decides to bring him over, and Escaria Ten seems destined to end up in the NH Chase as backup to Galvin. Either way it would seem sensible to wait until the final decs for the Day 1 yankee to eliminate any uneccesary risk of non-runners. I think these two are more likely to place than win, and will go off too short because of Gordon anyway.

The one I'd confidently nominate as the right horse is Happygolucky. Novices have a good record in the race, he has a nice profile, and excellent course form including being beaten 3 lengths in the Ballymore trial at the Open Meeting behind Thyme Hill, 3rd beaten 3 lengths in the Martin Pipe when hampered at the last, and a recent win in a novice chase over course and distance at the International Meeting. I think he's very well handicapped, and he's the horse I really like for this. Currently available at prices up to 33/1, I think he'll go off 10-12/1 on the day which would offer a nice boost to the odds with the shorties. There's a possibility he could still go for the RSA or the NH Chase, but I think that's unlikley when this is winnable off his current mark. For me personally, assuming he lines up I will be heavily into him. He's already a 50 point winner for me, and I can see my self going back in several times on confirmation that this is his race.

Certainly looks highly likely we'll need to include something from the Ultima in the yankee as it'll probably give us a better dual win-each way option than the Supreme, Arkle, Champion Hurdle and Mares Hurdle.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why connections want to run The Conditional in the Denman and risk blowing his handicap mark when he can go for the Ultima off 149 and run in the Grand National off around 10st 4lbs. What is not to like about that?

To my mind, the Gold Cup is a bit of a vanity project.

So I'm very much hoping The Conditional skips the Denman and comes straight here.

I see the attraction of Happygolucky (147) and to a lesser extend Whatmore (145).

But when you consider that as things stand they will only get 2lbs and 4lbs respectively from a horse who is unbeaten in two 3m 1f handicap chases at Cheltenham - then I find it hard to get away from The Conditional.

Ok, as things stand, he is rated 10lbs higher than when he won the Ultima last year.

But he also ran off a 10lbs higher mark in the Hennessy this season and finished runner-up for the second year in a row - posting a higher RPR than last year in the process.

Sure, he was well beaten this time but he went into the race without the benefit of a prep run this time. Last year he warmed up with a victory at Cheltenham.

So, for my money, we hold fire on The Conditional until Bridgey makes their Festival plans clear.

And if he goes Gold Cup Happygolucky and Whatmore will be bang in the mix.

But if The Conditional comes here I still need convincing he's not The One.

What do people think?

[DenmanSacre]

I think the Conditional is well held by the handicapper and if he's not, he will ruin his mark in the Denman.

We need an improver and Happygolucky is the one for me.

[Kevloaf]

I think the Conditional is well held by the handicapper and if he's not, he will ruin his mark in the Denman.

We need an improver and Happygolucky is the one for me.

Annoyingly, I agree with that.
...and not annoyingly, I agree with Happygolucky

Still up in the air where he runs isn't it... I'd fancy him much less in the NH Chase.

[Spectre]

I think if he runs in the Denman then I’d personally write him off NC. A tough race in a Grade 1 so close the Festival would put me off whatever the result. He runs a big race and he goes to the Gold Cup, and if he doesn’t it’s still a tough race three weeks before the Festival. I can only have him if he goes straight to the Ultima.

[nortonscoin200]

The Boodles is highly likely to come into play for this bet and has the potential to boost our odds quite considerably.

It's still early days with regards to eventual runners but the Grade 1 form of Saint Sam and Busselton behind Quilixios at Leopardstown has surely got to put them on our short-list if they wind up here.

Horses who have made the frame in the Spring Juvenile have twice gone on to win the Triumph in recent years - Tiger Roll and Farclas - and Saint Sam and Busselton were only beaten 5l and 10l.

What d'you reckon?

[nortonscoin200]

I'm thinking maybe we should get Honeysuckle on board for the following reasons.

1. She was mightily impressive last time out.
2. Her hurdling seems to have improved.
3. She has yet to taste defeat in her 10-race career.
4. There are doubts about her nearest rival Epatante after being beaten last time.
5. Silver Streak's front running tactics could set the race up perfectly for Honeysuckle.
6. The ground is likely to be soft after a wet winter and more rain forecast in the area this coming week (outlook dry for the following week).
7. Honeysuckle stays two-and-a-half miles well - it's her best trip - which is a huge help in the Champion Hurdle.
8. Her mares allowance will be very handy against the boys.
9. The best price is still 5-2 which is probably the best value of the four short-priced favs on Day One. Has Appreciate It got a better chance in the Supreme at 7-4 than Honeysuckle in the CH? It think not. Concertista at 7-4 if Benie shows up? Is Shishkin an even money shot against Energumene? Maybe.
10. It would be bloody brilliant to cheer Honeysuckle to victory in the Champion Hurdle with a woman jockey on board.

If we went for Honeysuckle would we still go for an each way yankee or pursue an on-the-nose strategy.

Come on boys/girls hit me....rip me apart....show your support.....impeach me.......get involved......

[Leman14]

Sounds like a plan!

[doctorwu]

Some great write-ups on here fellas with regards to The Ultima.

I tend to agree that if The Conditional goes Denman you can write him off. That said, I don't think he will. Im still of the opinion that the plans are to come here, the rest is just window dressing. If he does come straight here I cannot have him out of the first 4. My only worry would be an improving novice, Happygolucky looks to fit that profile. KB is a bit of a negative for me when it comes to placing horses. If this is the plan then he must have a great chance. Cloth Cap would be in my trio. I would be keen on Escaria Ten but the Irish don't tend to take this race seriously.
Good luck.

[DenmanSacre]

Some great write-ups on here fellas with regards to The Ultima.

I tend to agree that if The Conditional goes Denman you can write him off. That said, I don't think he will. Im still of the opinion that the plans are to come here, the rest is just window dressing. If he does come straight here I cannot have him out of the first 4. My only worry would be an improving novice, Happygolucky looks to fit that profile. KB is a bit of a negative for me when it comes to placing horses. If this is the plan then he must have a great chance. Cloth Cap would be in my trio. I would be keen on Escaria Ten but the Irish don't tend to take this race seriously.
Good luck.

Cloth Cap going to the Grimthorpe Chase on March 6th then GN so not going to Cheltenham under current plans.

[doctorwu]

Cloth Cap going to the Grimthorpe Chase on March 6th then GN so not going to Cheltenham under current plans.

Thanks for the info DS

[doctorwu]

Looks like The Conditional going for the Denman.

[nortonscoin200]

As mentioned by Kauto, the arkle (and the CH also) won’t provide great shape for EW plays. Perhaps consider the arkle W/O market for 2 places to shoot at.

Personally when considering multiples I either target the win element or the place element. Lots of 6/1 shots each way is bookies benefit. Either try and get 2/3 double figure horses placed, or bet win only at a level where 2-3 horses return a profit.
At this stage Galvin could still have it all to do against the likes of LE, DD and even RP. That 9/2 carrot is not appealing to me as an EW play.
Captain Guinness 12/1 on the WO Shishkin market? You need a horse here ridden to place - could be Rachel let’s the big two go on while stalking behind holding the horse together.
On decent ground I’d struggle to see Sharjah out of the places in the CH, and fancy him or not there’s little room for an EW play behind the girls.
I think there’s a general sense that opportunity exists in the supreme for have a go horses behind AI. Some juveniles are bound to divert, and with Ballyadams jumping and general form 7/1 looks skinny enough. Not place banker. I’d wait to see what emerges nearer the time. The betfair hurdle winner may well go second fav after Newbury - it’s that kind of market.
Mares hurdle looks a good place for ew value but that hinges greatly on BDDs wellbeing and participation. Perhaps another race to wait on as Roksana would surely slip into her market position if BDD ruled out.
NHc - I would expect LE to end up here when RP confirms gold cup as target, and he will surely settle next to Galvin as joint fav if so. Amateur jockey bookings another variable here.

All in all it’s a tough day for an ew yankee at this stage. Powder dry may be the ticket for now, as there’s nothing worse than a withdrawal ruining a yankee before the day without NRNB concession.

As a proposal with NRNB (PP prices) if you wanted to go early -

Supreme - Cadzand 20/1
Arkle - Captain Guinness 12/1 w/o Shishkin
CH - Sharjah 10/1
Mares - minella melody 20/1 (course record a concern - would rather the 28/1 available but not NRNB)
NHc - LE 6/1

I wouldn’t touch the handicaps at this stage, even if you snatch a winner it’s not guaranteed you’ll have found another to back it up with!

Wise words Millbear - be great if you keep on the case.

Personally, I wouldn't be against pulling the trigger before deadline day if we get to a position where The Chosen Ones are certain starters in particular races (barring last minutes injuries).

But reckon we're going to need to wait for the handicap entries on the 24th to get more of a handle on the two potentially most lucrative races (odds wise) the Ultima and the Boodles.

In the meantime maybe we can concentrate more on lining up a couple of belters from the other 5 races.

[nortonscoin200]

How about we do an each way yankee based around:

HONEYSUCKLE in the Champion Hurdle at 9-4

and GALVIN in the NH Chase at 4-1



Reckon the other 2 probably need to come from the Boodles and the Ultima to bump up the odds.

What about....



BUSSELTON in the Boodles at 12-1.

And either.....

HAPPYGOLUCKY at 16-1 or THE CONDITIONAL at 12-1 in the Ultima.


A 1 point each way yankee with Skybet returns 6579 points using Happygolucky and 5122 points using The Conditional.

The same bet with PP/BF returns 6386 using Happygolucky and 3400 using The Conditional.

My reasoning is:

Honeysuckle is the most likely winner of the Champion Hurdle and I'd be disappointed if she doesn't at least make the frame. She's in fine form, her hurdling seems slicker, she has course form and she will stay the trip well on likely soft going. Her rivals have all shown their vulnerabilities during the season.

Galvin has been laid out for this by Gordy and I think the extended trip will suit. He jumps well and acts on the track. Doubts remain about the participation of nearly all his most likely rivals. His price will shorten if they don't turn up - or it could slightly drift if they all turn up.

Busselton has been beaten by three horses this season - Zanahiyr, Quilixios and Saint Sam. His Irish rating is 133 so he'll probably be around 137-139 if he turns up here which would be fine. Joseph won this with Wave of the Sea and surely he will choose to come here with a winning chance rather than take on the big guns in the Triumph.
Quilixios is long odds on not to turn up while Adagio's rating (146) will be a massive anchor and Saint Sam could end up in the low 140s.

I can see why people like Happygolucky and maybe he's the answer. What I can't see is how Happygolucky could beat The Conditional at Cheltenham off their current ratings where the former would get just 2lbs.
I still feel that if The Conditional's connections have any sense they will come here and then go to the Grand National where he's been given 10st 6lbs. Wow, what a terrific weight, he could go off single figures.
Hopefully he doesn't run in the Denman on Sunday which could blow his current mark for the Ultima.

I don't know how certain Happygolucky is to come here - but he'd have a better chance in this than the RSA or the NH Chase in my book.

I think the returns on the bet look ok. I'm hopeless at working out yankee returns but by my calculations at these prices we'd break even if 3 of them place.

Honeysuckle and Galvin are certain starters in the CH and NHC (barring injury) and I'd have thought Busselton is pretty certain to go Boodles. Maybe we'd have to wait a bit longer for Happygolucky/The Conditional.

But once the chosen four are set in stone I'd be in favour of pulling the trigger early to get better prices.

NB: I'M NOT RULING OUT ANY OTHER CHOICES AT ALL.

Have your say, tinker with the above, rip it to pieces and start again...have your say.

[Spectre]

I think you're right to use Galvin to anchor it NC, but I think I'd prefer Concertista to Honeysuckle. I think Concertista has much the easier task.

The alternative is to use the three of them in a win yankee, and pick out your most solid option from one of the two handicaps?