Fat Jockey Day One Yankee - Captain: nortonscoin200

[Kevloaf]

I think Ballyadam is the 'most solid' to place and has SOME possibility of getting closer on better ground. (He might not too).... but at least it's an angle for him to win?

If we go E/W, I think Ballyadam should be the selection.

[Evesham Road]

There could be merit in mixing place markets with win markets. For example and in the context of recent discussion, Ballyadam at around 5/4 to place might appeal more than one or two of the short favourites, as part of a win yankee.

Of course, even a positive result is hardly going to be life-changing stuff, but I'm not sure exactly where the collective appetite lies, being new around here.

[dannycraigpirates]

I think Ballyadam is the 'most solid' to place and has SOME possibility of getting closer on better ground. (He might not too).... but at least it's an angle for him to win?

If we go E/W, I think Ballyadam should be the selection.

My only concern is that we all hold decent tickets on Ballyadam already - wouldn’t you prefer the Yankee to cover things we might not already be heavily into?

[Kevloaf]

My only concern is that we all hold decent tickets on Ballyadam already - wouldn’t you prefer the Yankee to cover things we might not already be heavily into?

Well I hold decent bets on Appreciate It too, so personally I'd have Metier as 'the cover' ...but is that the point of these yankee's? To "cover" horses the majority haven't backed?

The idea of any bet we're placing, I'd have thought, was to back the best value and try and make some money.....

Up to the captain though, not me I had my turn years ago!

[chunker86]

I like Roksana

[Lobos]

I like Roksana

Stayers is not on the first day......

[nortonscoin200]

There could be merit in mixing place markets with win markets. For example and in the context of recent discussion, Ballyadam at around 5/4 to place might appeal more than one or two of the short favourites, as part of a win yankee.

Of course, even a positive result is hardly going to be life-changing stuff, but I'm not sure exactly where the collective appetite lies, being new around here.

That's a valid point ER regarding "where the collective appetite lies".

Not sure I know either.

I suppose it's probably the case that there is no collective appetite - some will want a safety first approach and others will be inclined to go for broke.

Maybe we should park the Supreme for the time being and explore other avenues.

The Boodles probably offers us the greatest scope to fall on something good at a big price (and 4 or 5) places.

The winners SP in the last 10 years has been 12-1, 7-2f, 33-1, 33-1, 13-2, 25-1,33-1, 25-1, 40-1, 9-1.

But imo we certainly need something to bump up the returns on an each way yankee.


The short-list so far contains 2 horses who are barely each way prices:

Happygolucky 6-1

Galvin 7-2


The possibles:

Ballyadam 7-1


But so far this doesn't look like an each way yankee to get excited about.

We need the Boodles or a eureka moment from somewhere else to give it a lift.

Otherwise we might have to go off piste/rogue into Nortons Coin territory!!!

Either that or fall back on a win yankee which would maybe bring Appreciate It into play.

We need someone to sprinkle their magic dust on this little combo!!!

[Spectre]

The Boodles is a race to include in this I think. With Quilixios seemingly heading to Triumph again after the switch to HdB, I’d put forward Glorious Zoff and Druids Altar, with a personal preference for the former.

GZ is a very obvious plot, and one that was manipulated for a UK mark very early. Gordon nailed the handicapper with two runs in the UK making it impossible to give anything substantial. The flat run was the icing on the cake. He’s also the kind of price we need for this, although I’m sure he’ll be backed.

The collateral form, race plan, and trends make a good case for Druids Altar, and you’d have to have him as a well handicapped improver.

[Kevloaf]

So we're avoiding Appreciate It, Shishkin, Honeysuckle and Concertista because we know they win?

[nortonscoin200]

Is this a eureka moment????

It's so obvious.

It's just bound to happen.

Gordon gets a 6-month ban and his deputy bags a Day One 4-timer for the stable!!!!

Now we just have to pick the right ones:

ABACADABRAS will love the ground - currently 12-1 for the CH and there will probably be double figures around at final decs.

GLORIOUS ZOFF looked impressive on a sound surface at Sligo (not so much at Sedgefield, I know) and is on a nice mark (131) for the Boodles. The weights could go up 8lbs leaving him on 11-stone. Still 16-1 and should be double figures at final decs.

GALVIN 7-2...weighed in.


Now it gets a bit more tricky:

TEAHUPOO to be the first 4-year-old winner of the Supreme since Hors La Roi in 1999. Binocular tried and came second and Fakir D'Oudairies came 4th. Currently 25-1 for this with entries in the Boodles and Triumph. But if Quilixios does go for the Triumph then Teahupoo could end up on top weight. And if the older generation are an ordinary bunch he would have a shout. More likely to go elsewhere but Gordon's only entry here and Robcour's too if we assume Bob Olinger goes for the Ballymore. Interesting.

And thinking about it, if Teahupoo runs here he has just got to win for the simple reason it would be the very last thing the powers that be would want.

or maybe...

COKO BEACH, ESCARIA TEN or MILAN NATIVE in the Ultima. They'd all be in with a decent shout at decent odds because of the gamble on the front two in the market.

or maybe....

BLACK TEARS in the Mares Hurdle which I suggested as a possibility yesterday. Though the exchanges seem very lukewarm on her coming here rather than the Coral.


My 5 for the shortlist (each way) would be:

Galvin
Glorious Zoff
Teahupoo (if he comes here)
Abacadbras
Coko Beach or Escaria Ten

I'm quite excited about that.

Is this an idea worth pursuing - The I'll Make A Good Gordon Gordon each way yankee?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Trl4...l=DarrenCubitt

[Kevloaf]

Haha, I actually love that nortonscoin200

[nortonscoin200]

So we're avoiding Appreciate It, Shishkin, Honeysuckle and Concertista because we know they win?

No definitely not.

I agree with you that Ballyadam is the most likely horse to beat Appreciate It and definitely has a squeak - but I'd be surprised if he's better than 5-1 come final decs and I don't see that as each way value personally.

Honeysuckle could easily get turned over in the CH but the two most likely challengers are 7-2 and 4-1, again that's not much of an each way price.

I'd have backed Concertista to win the Champion Hurdle but I think she's vulnerable over 2m 4f on a sound surface - Dame De Compagnie definitely has a decent chance but she'll probably be 4-1 tops second favourite come final decs. Black Tears may not end up here.

So, as far as I'm concerned all these races are in play but we need bigger priced to go each way.

You need to talk me out of the I'll Make A Good Gordon Gordon idea quick.

[nortonscoin200]

Haha, I actually love that nortonscoin200

Brilliant!!!!

Do we have any other seconders.

Would certainly make life easier only having to choose horses from one stable.

[DenmanSacre]

Brilliant!!!!

Do we have any other seconders.

Would certainly make life easier only having to choose horses from one stable.

It is the sort of thing that tends to happen.

Teahupoo
Felix Desjy
Escaria Ten/Coko Beach/ Farclas/RWF/Milan Native/Roaring Bull
Abacadabras
Black Tears
Glorious Zoff/Riviere D'Etal/Teahupoo
Galvin/Escaria Ten/Pencilfuloflead/RWF/Braeside

Those are his entries.

Felix Desjy I'd ignore as the Arkle is hot.
Teahupoo in the Supreme wouldn't be a pick for me.

Leaves us with the last 5 races.

Escaria Ten (Ultima), Abacadabras, Black Tears, the 3 in the Boodles and Galvin all have win and place claims and it would just be picking 4 of the 5 races.

[Spectre]

It’s not a bad idea. Overall Willie tends to perform better over the last two days, and Elliott’s tend to be spread around. I think a couple of winners is more realistic for Elliott on day one though.

I’d use Glorious Zoff and Galvin. You know my thoughts on Happygolucky already, so he’d definitely be a pick for me.

And for the final pick I’d look to take on either Appreciate It or Concertista. Metier would be own choice on the basis I want something I think can win, and almost by default that can’t be an Irish horse in the Supreme. Appreciate It has proven to be the best Ireland has to offer already, and you couldn’t make a strong enough case for anything to improve past him. Anything beating Concertista feels even more speculative. I do understand the case for Black Tears, but a fully tuned Concertista looks highly likely to beat her though.