Triumph Hurdle 2020

[charlie]

But Solo just wins for me, looks an absolute power house. Get the price doesn’t look great but if he lines up he’s a 2/1 shot and baring accidents he flies home and gets the job done. Think we know why pfn was keen to talk about the boodles for Mick Pastor last night. Was against the head of the market for various reasons, and was waiting for something to grab this race by the balls (literally).

Ok if your "first things first", am i "second things first", or "first things second" not sure how to respond, whats the etiquette here, do I have to agree that the opposition are quite clearly poor, whats the definition of poor when assessing juvenile form, does winning a listed race for £32k by 9 lengths make you a poor horse. I would say thats open for interpretation at the least.

The manner in which Solo ran down the straight strongly suggests that he will be shorter than 4/1 on the day in fact think he will go off 2/1 and he will power up the hill when all the others have pulled their chances away and if im wrong then i can always edit this post and pretend i didnt write it, but he is a strong selection even at 4/1. Well done to others who got the big juicy prices by the way, hat tipped to you.

'The price doesn't look great' - the price is absolutely abysmal IMO

Does a 146 rated horse beating mid-120's horses by 18L make him an 'absolute power house'? Solo is ahead of Allmankind & Goshen in the market and both of those have accounted for horses now rated 140 with just as much ease and both have smashed mid 130's horses by significantly larger winning margins.

'Baring accidents he flies home and gets the job done'. Ok, so for that to be true you think yesterdays performance is the best piece of form on offer? Yesterday gave you the confidence he will handle the undulations of Cheltenham, the pace of a championship race, jumping under pressure and just simply get the job done

Solo was very good yesterday but he should be beating horses of that calibre easily and IMO FF underperformed. He has been seen twice at Auteuil and lost to a horse that just got beat in a class 4 at Bangor, and you think off the back of yesterday he just wins the Triumph?

'He will power up the hill when all the others have pulled their chances away'. Three questions (I'll let COD do the Goshen questions):

1) Did Allmankind pull his chances away beating Galahad Quest 66L, who went on to win the Grade 2 trail at Cheltenham?
2) Did Allmankind pull his chances away beating two horses who both subsequently won at Cheltenham since?
3) Did Allmankind pull his chances away in the Grade 1 beating now 140 rated Nordano 18L on heavy ground at Chepstow?

I'm not saying Solo can't tread the same path as Zarkander and win the Adonis and then this, I just think you are overplaying the win yesterday, and downplaying his opponents.

That's just my opinion, I could be wrong. If I am wrong I will hold my hands up and congratulate you. I don't think that day will come, but we'll see. If it does you can answer my questions at 1.35 on Friday 13th is you like

[TheEagleHasLanded]

Thought it was a complete overreaction by the bookies at 3/1 (unlike them )
Then I was reminded in a Whatsapp group of one horse
Zarkandar - This is a path PN has walked before so I guess that’s the cause of the price

[Kevloaf]

I don't know how you can not be impressed by Solo yesterday.

If Allmankind or Goshen won the Adonis in that style yesterday would you take a dim view of it?

The fact that AMK and Goshen have been out earlier in the season means they've had chances for their form to be franked.

In terms of the prices though, Solo has gone fav because of recent bias, and niggles around 'quirks' with the others?

Solo and Fujimoto Flyer were both good bets upon entries for this race IMO, but I'm not counting any money just yet, as it's impossible to dispute Allmankind or Goshen wouldn't have been able to do the same yesterday.

[Istabraq]

The market always overreacts to an Adonis winner.
It’s the latest and last piece of form taking into the Triumph hurdle, if Goshen or Allmankind went out today and trumped Solo’s performance you’d get better perspective from bookies.

No question Solo was impressive but beating average horses, some of whom may well not have been trying, doesn’t strike me as an obvious Triumph winner, but as I say, it’s the latest piece of form...

[Kevloaf]

I over reacted when Beltor won the Adonis

[charlie]

I don't know how you can not be impressed by Solo yesterday.

If Allmankind or Goshen won the Adonis in that style yesterday would you take a dim view of it?

The fact that AMK and Goshen have been out earlier in the season means they've had chances for their form to be franked.

In terms of the prices though, Solo has gone fav because of recent bias, and niggles around 'quirks' with the others?

Solo and Fujimoto Flyer were both good bets upon entries for this race IMO, but I'm not counting any money just yet, as it's impossible to dispute Allmankind or Goshen wouldn't have been able to do the same yesterday.

It was impressive. but there's definitely been an over reaction IMO

Allmankind has won a better race in a far more impressive fashion and is currently a bigger price, so I take a dim view of the price not the performance.

If Allmankind can put 18L on a horse rated 140 and 66L on a horse rated 135, I'd love to see what he would have done to that field yesterday.

[billymag]

The visual impression was impressive yesterday and the it was particularly the way he powered away up the straight. But when looking at the price in relation to others I do think that its worth pointing out who the trainer is. I know it isnt fashionable to suggest that PFN has had better juveniles than other trainers at the head of the market but its a fact and as such he will have an idea of where Solo sits, he also works him with better horses which should give him a much more accurate idea of the level he is operating at. You could tell by PFNs reaction that Solo is exceptional (for this point of his career) and must be showing them loads at home, but will obviously of been nervous about him being able to repeat it on the track.
All week the two at the head of the market for the Adonis were reasonably close and even 5 mins before the off FF was fav, thats all the great betting minds of the industry pouring over the french form could hardly split them on all known evidence and in fact decided that FF was a better horse under these conditions. But just before the off the money came from the stable, the ones who know exactly what they have and they were betting on if the homework could be replicated or was this to be another French import that would need to time to adjust.
That money should not be ignored in my opinion and once you marry that to the performance and the previous the stable has with Juveniles I think the 4/1 looks a great bet and as mentioned I think he will be around 2/1 on the day.

[Kevloaf]

It was impressive. but there's definitely been an over reaction IMO

Allmankind has won a better race in a far more impressive fashion and is currently a bigger price, so I take a dim view of the price not the performance.

If Allmankind can put 18L on a horse rated 140 and 66L on a horse rated 135, I'd love to see what he would have done to that field yesterday.

You don't really believe he's 66L better than 135 though do you

On the form AMK has shown, he'd have won yesterday as well. You're kind of using that to knock Solo's price now which is fine bit he's not one to rule out (which i'm sure you're not)

[ComplyOrDie]

If Allmankind or Goshen won the Adonis in that style yesterday would you take a dim view of it?

If Goshen had won it like that yesterday all that would have been picked up by seemingly everyone, is how bad his jumping would have been

They just ignore his performances for his jumping

[Quevega]

As the great Shaun Ryder once said.
He's got balls bigger than King Kong.

Solo looked like a boss yesterday.
I believe he's still entire.
And so his relaxed professional demeanour is particularly admirable vs the squealing eunuch's and girls, running off and jumping in all directions.

[TheEagleHasLanded]

Fascinating race though, IF solo is still there at the top of the hill, they could set the race up for him, you’d think having several front runners trying to make all that the pace will be relentless

[billymag]

As the great Shaun Ryder once said.
He's got balls bigger than King Kong.

Solo looked like a boss yesterday.
I believe he's still entire.
And so his relaxed professional demeanour is particularly admirable vs the squealing eunuch's and girls, running off and jumping in all directions.

Love it Quevega cant be many times Shaun Ryder has been quoted on a racing forum "First big suit on the moon and hes off to play golf, hole in one"

[Quevega]

Love it Quevega cant be many times Shaun Ryder has been quoted on a racing forum "First big suit on the moon and hes off to play golf, hole in one"

Legend

[Saxon Warrior]

I love the front of this market, it should be an absolutely intriguing race, and from that I hope that something of quality emerges to stick around for a few future Champion Hurdles.

[charlie]

You don't really believe he's 66L better than 135 though do you

On the form AMK has shown, he'd have won yesterday as well. You're kind of using that to knock Solo's price now which is fine bit he's not one to rule out (which i'm sure you're not)

No of course not, I was using the winning distance as a means to emphasise that AMK has beaten better horses by more significant distance.

On the form AMK has shown he'd have won as well? Just as well?

One of the first things I have said is 'he's the one I am worried about' so definitely not ruled out