Triumph Hurdle 2020

[UnTempsPourTout]

Whatever happens now already in profit for the race thanks to Solo and also thanks to whoever was first to mention him on here.

33/1 and 28/1 singles - cashed one out. And still got it in a couple of doubles at 20/1 as well. Performance was very impressive, not sure it wins triumph (purely on the fact i can never seem to pick the winner in this race) but at least it is has a very live chance.

[billymag]

Solos rpr is interesting not sure how they calculate them or should i say re-calculate them. Think mentioned i was fan of the run on saturday and his Triumph chances so checked the RP site on Sunday at 12.48 and he had only got 135 so rewatched the race and did a few calculations and i just couldnt see how they had taken such a dim view!! Went back to look at his profile again later that afternoon 14.48 to see if i was going mad and noticed the RPR had gone up to 139 now, which still seems low baring in mind the time (which was fine) and proximity to Tremwedge and Fantastic Mr Fox and the weight he was giving. Today I look and see hes now 145 RPR which seems much more realistic, but all very strange, does anyone know why this happens please.

[Super Raven]

I'm still siding with Goshen too, if he jumps the last in contention then he just won't be caught IMO

[robith]

The Solo debate for me is:

if you have a double digit price, well done, looks like you've got a nice bet

if you're looking at it now at 3/1, I'm confused as to why you would think that was anything other than a desperate price

[Saxon Warrior]

Solos rpr is interesting not sure how they calculate them or should i say re-calculate them. Think mentioned i was fan of the run on saturday and his Triumph chances so checked the RP site on Sunday at 12.48 and he had only got 135 so rewatched the race and did a few calculations and i just couldnt see how they had taken such a dim view!! Went back to look at his profile again later that afternoon 14.48 to see if i was going mad and noticed the RPR had gone up to 139 now, which still seems low baring in mind the time (which was fine) and proximity to Tremwedge and Fantastic Mr Fox and the weight he was giving. Today I look and see hes now 145 RPR which seems much more realistic, but all very strange, does anyone know why this happens please.

Billy,

I have noticed on RPR's that usually Ireland put up their figures quicker, often on the same day as the race and stick to them.

In the UK ratings are slower, often the following day. However, when they are put up quicker (on the same day) they can be changed once or sometimes twice, often upwards. They did this after Chantry House's last win, the same as for Solo.

Not sure of the answer, maybe its the Novice/Juvenile ratings where there isn't strong established ratings for the first four home, and the original rating put up then gets tested and checked by others, and raised if necessary. Ive never seen one lowered.

----------------------------------------------------

The Group 2 that Solo won easily, has a list of wide margin winners in recent runnings that looked like stars then blew-out at Cheltenham.

2019 Fusil Raffles (RPR 142) won by 9 lengths
(missed Cheltenham/Aintree, then won Grade 1 at Punchestown over two months later).

2018 Redicean (RPR 142) won by 7 lengths
(7/1 Triumph Hurdle 6th place)

2017 Master Blueyes (RPR 141) won by 11 lengths from 2nd (OR 142)
(8/1 Triumph, 10th place)

2016 Zubayr (RPR 139) won by 3&3/4 lengths
(11/2 Triumph unplaced)

2015 Beltor (RPR 140) won by 5 lengths and 9 lengths (3rd place, OR 139)
(7/1 Triumph, 6th place)

I can recall thinking that the last three of these (at least) looked like world-beaters at Kempton, but then they were miserable in the Triumph (or missed it).

The form/ratings of the placed horses were often better than this years depth of race.

The two races have had incompatible profiles for those wide-margin recent winners, for whatever reasons, but Solo has the highest rating so far, so maybe he can break the trend.

[billymag]

Ive also noticed the RPRs in Ireland being quicker than UK, one day they were actually posted for the 1st and 2nd race before racing at the track had even finished. Thanks for taking the time to reply.

[charlie]

If this forum was an accurate snapshot of the Triumph market;

Fav - Allmankind
2nd Fav - Solo
big gap
Goshen and Aspire Tower
Mick Pastor
Anything else.

A lot of gum flapping about how good Allmankind is, yet he's clear 3rd fav?

I am surprised he's bigger than Goshen..... [we] must be quite biased on here, only CoD banging the Goshen drum as far as I can remember?

Gum flapping?!?! You devil Kev

As the founder of the AMK fan club I’m not overly keen on your choice of words! Fortunately you have opened the door for some gum flapping so here I go (today will be my last day of contributions to this thread until 1.35 on 13th March)

Re the ‘clear 3rd fav’ bit, I presume are you saying that if AMK is as good as everyone on here is saying then wouldn’t/shouldn’t he be clear fav? It's a fair question. I think he would be clear fav were it not for the way he races and recency bias (both explained below).

Do Solo and/or Goshen deserve to be talked about more? In many respects I think they do. Whilst Solo is treading a traditional route for PN's best juvenile and Goshen is racking up very impressive wins, Solo has run once here and Goshen’s most competitive race is class 2 juvenile hurdle worth 12k. Both are ahead of AMK in the market, yet both have more questions to answer with a view to this no?

Do any Solo or Goshen backers think either have fewer questions to answer than AMK? Would be interested to hear people's thoughts on that one. Both are shorter in the market, so I feel I have to at least ask the question.

I have just watched the Adonis back and all of Goshen’s runs back. Solo was more than just decent and very impressive in fact (I hold my hands up to playing down the win). To answer your post a few pages back Kev, I think I was wrong and it wasn’t a poor ride from DJ on FF, I am just not his biggest fan and jumped the gun. Solo has an obvious chance, I just don’t think that form justifies the current price, or like that there have been 2 winners in the last 32 years that had raced only once over hurdles in GB or Ire (plus Adonis winners record in this isn't great). PN has done it before and could do it again, but way too short for me.

Re Goshen, he has some serious ability! I have probably down played his ability (COD will verify ), but he is demolishing fields and what are proving to be good horses. They might not be the most competitive races and GM is giving him circumstances he loves, but he literally couldn’t have been more impressive to date. The only holes I pick are his jumping and a question mark over his ability to handle Cheltenham. They may both turn out to be nothing, and he wins, but they are points that definitely put me off at the prices.

I think the British challengers find themselves in a fortuitous position as the Irish hand doesn't look particularly strong. For all I know there could be something we haven't seen, or something I have incorrectly put a line through (like Pentland Hills) that just improves, turns up and does the business - but for me at the moment, the best piece of form so far is AMK's Grade 1 win at Chepstow

Form wise, the second has backed up with an impressive effort in Ireland's G1 Juvenile and the 3rd was beaten 18 lengths and is now rated 140. For those that remain unimpressed with that form (and the 8 other subsequent winners from AMK races) look at what AMK actually did that day, both visually and on the clock.

Re the latter, AMK has run 24 seconds (yes, twenty four seconds!) faster than the last horse to win at Chepstow on heavy before going on to win the Triumph. The only horse to better AMK’s time in the last 15 years (I couldn’t be bothered looking back further) was DDS, who was 0.3 seconds faster on soft, good to soft ground.

Re the former, AMK has raced way too keenly and powered through the line super impressively. He has zero right to finish the race as strongly as that having raced that keenly, but he did. I think that warrants serious respect, and is the single best piece of form on offer so far. IMO of course

When all is said and done, what do I want in a Triumph horse? I want a horse that jumps low, fast and is reliable at obstacles. I want a horse that handles the prelims well and doesn't get buzzed up and lose their race down at the start. I want a horse that I know will handle Cheltenham, and ideally has winning Cheltenham experience. I want a horse that has a decent flat rating and is well bred because winners of this tend to reach a certain level on the flat. I want a horse that’s not too ground dependent so I don’t have to worry about ground on the day. I want a horse that’s shown both speed and an engine so I know I have a chance turning in that they will see out the hill strongly. I want a horse that has solid form and is beating horses that are subsequently winning so I can trust in the horses overall ability.

For me, AMK is all the above whereas the others are not, which is what makes him a better bet at 4/1 than the others at shorter prices.
11 of the last 15 winners have come from the front 4 in the market so its reasonable to think one of Solo, Goshen, Allmankind or Aspire Tower will win this. The proximity of Cerberus to Aspire Tower would give me confidence that AMK would have AT number, and as stated, AMK ticks boxes the others don't.

In order of best bet

AMK @ 4/1
Aspire Tower @ 7/1
Goshen @ 4/1
Solo @ 3/1

I appreciate a lot of the above is regurgitating points I've made scattered across the thread. These are all my thoughts in one place and one serious f*cking gum flap!

[ComplyOrDie]

Do Solo and/or Goshen deserve to be talked about more? In many respects I think they do. Whilst Solo is treading a traditional route for PN's best juvenile and Goshen is racking up very impressive wins, Solo has run once here and Goshen’s most competitive race is class 2 juvenile hurdle worth 12k. Both are ahead of AMK in the market, yet both have more questions to answer with a view to this no?

I don't think they are talked about more, obviously Solo has been over the weekend, but he wasn't a huge talking horse before he done what he done. Goshen was spoken about when Gary Moore was interviewed about him, and when Nordano won the handicap as that was his most recent form prior to that win, but anyone with a bit of savvy about them would see AMK has form with him too.

Maybe we are reading/listening to different things as I see plenty of support for Allmankind also.

Do any Solo or Goshen backers think either have fewer questions to answer than AMK? Would be interested to hear people's thoughts on that one. Both are shorter in the market, so I feel I have to at least ask the question.

Solo has the most to answer IMO, one performance over here, no matter how impressive, and suddenly favourite, his price is all wrong, should be 6/1-13/2 I feel.

Goshen and AMK's form is very similar, so can have the pair fairly close in the market, which they are. Does Goshen have fewer questions to answer than AMK? Possibly, but as noted, they have comparative form lines which makes it a little easier to gauge their abilities, obviously that has to be taken as literal to be able to do so, but we have little else to go on for the argument in case.

Goshens only question for me is his hurdling, but I don't think he'll get left behind because of it and think he has the biggest engine, thus landing on him as a bet.

[Kevloaf]

Some very good gum flapping.

Looks like my snap shot was wrong too as Goshen does have his fans.


I had been waiting for anything to come along and take this race by the scruff of the neck (rubbish saying).

Solo obviously satisfied that criteria.

It'd be foolish to not admit though, with that being the case, that I'd over estimate it (the Adonis) as its what I wanted.

The case you've made (upgraded from gum flapping) is good. I would agree, he's the best bet of the four, and I also agree he should be favourite.

I'll back accordingly, soon.

[charlie]

I don't think they are talked about more, obviously Solo has been over the weekend, but he wasn't a huge talking horse before he done what he done. Goshen was spoken about when Gary Moore was interviewed about him, and when Nordano won the handicap as that was his most recent form prior to that win, but anyone with a bit of savvy about them would see AMK has form with him too.

Maybe we are reading/listening to different things as I see plenty of support for Allmankind also.

Solo has the most to answer IMO, one performance over here, no matter how impressive, and suddenly favourite, his price is all wrong, should be 6/1-13/2 I feel.

Goshen and AMK's form is very similar, so can have the pair fairly close in the market, which they are. Does Goshen have fewer questions to answer than AMK? Possibly, but as noted, they have comparative form lines which makes it a little easier to gauge their abilities, obviously that has to be taken as literal to be able to do so, but we have little else to go on for the argument in case.

Goshens only question for me is his hurdling, but I don't think he'll get left behind because of it and think he has the biggest engine, thus landing on him as a bet.

Completely agree re Solo. If he were 6/1+ I'd consider getting him onside, but the price as you say is all wrong. I'd love to know who is steaming in at 3/1? (maybe PN ) I wouldn't be surprised if that goes back out to 4 or 5.

For all we know there could be something that's not even being discussing that could go and win it

It will be interesting to see what's said on the preview circuit and what the general feeling is towards the top 3 in the market.

My dislike of Goshen is mostly about price COD. I'd say the same about Shishkin. Priced like a horse with Grade 1 form when he's beat inferior fields on flat tracks. I don't think it's unfair to draw those comparisons with Goshen, or to acknowledge that his worst performance was on a left handed undulating track. For me that leaves plenty of ?, but just my opinion

I do really like Gary Moore though and if he wins this with Goshen then I'll tip my hat to him (right before I come on here and say 'well done COD' )

[charlie]

Some very good gum flapping.

Looks like my snap shot was wrong too as Goshen does have his fans.


I had been waiting for anything to come along and take this race by the scruff of the neck (rubbish saying).

Solo obviously satisfied that criteria.

It'd be foolish to not admit though, with that being the case, that I'd over estimate it (the Adonis) as its what I wanted.

The case you've made (upgraded from gum flapping) is good. I would agree, he's the best bet of the four, and I also agree he should be favourite.

I'll back accordingly, soon.

Haha I didn't realize my post was that long

[MadeinJapan]

In order of best bet

AMK @ 4/1
Aspire Tower @ 7/1
Goshen @ 4/1
Solo @ 3/1

I appreciate a lot of the above is regurgitating points I've made scattered across the thread. These are all my thoughts in one place and one serious f*cking gum flap!

V.good write up on his chances Charlie & you've made a lot of compelling reasons why the prices should probably be the other way round. Already on him from a while back & happy with that... the prices of the front few in the market on the day could also be reflective of how the trainers have got on throughout the week too, Nicholls for example having a better Festival than he's had for a while would see Solo shorter.

As Kev's stated - the Triumph is often won by one at the top of the market & I'm struggling to see past the top 3 (4 if you include Aspire Tower). The only one potentially e/w I might have a play on would be Hook Up, Ricci purchased him in Jan, the other Mullins horse finished in front of him on his first run & entitled to improve for that... his only entry is here & he's currently 50/1 with BSB. If Switch Switchy has a decent week & Mulllins too don't think it will go off at that price come Friday 1.35pm. Joseph's horses look covered IMO as do the Munir/Souede runners.

[harchibald]

Haha I didn't realize my post was that long

I loved it anyway Charlie and written with a bit of humour.

[TCH29]

In order of best bet

AMK @ 4/1
Aspire Tower @ 7/1
Goshen @ 4/1
Solo @ 3/1

I appreciate a lot of the above is regurgitating points I've made scattered across the thread. These are all my thoughts in one place and one serious f*cking gum flap!

Great work, Charlie!

[Kevloaf]

Just an FYI as it's not been mentioned for a while...

Please don't quote entire posts if they're huge.


Charlie's post is excellent, and I do like quoting where possible to make conversations easier to follow, but when it's 'too long' (use your own judgement) then quoting it just to add a small bit at the end like 'great work' (which it is), just makes things a bit messy... nothing wrong with saying it's a great post, just reference the post by the number is best (you can also copy and paste the hashtag and clicking it takes you there).... e.g. #1012


TCH2, please don't take it personally despite me clearing using your post as the example




For anybody interestest, this forum allows with HTML code and to

{QUOTE} flap your gums here {/QUOTE}

- just replace the {} and {/} with [] and [/] with QUOTE in there, which can be done multiple times in any post.