Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Kevloaf]

Sat in the sun looking through previous Arkles. Noticeable how many winners were programmed over 2 1/2 miles during the season and then dropped to 2 miles in the Arkle. The last 2 winners did it plus Simonsig, Western Warhorse, Captain Chris, tidal bay, Forpadydeplssterer and My Way De Solven who incredibly won the Stayers Hurdle the previous year. Clearly a staying pedigree helps in this race and experience over 2 1/2 miles the same season helps (10 out of last 14 Arkle winners have won over 2 1/2). Makes me fancy Darvers Star even more.

The Golden Miller (JLT/Marsh).... only came in, 2011.

That'll 100% affect the number of horses going to the Arkle and you can't be Tidal Bay, Forpady, My Way etc would have still gone for the Arkle so it skews your statistic a little.

Whilst it would do no harm knowing a horse 'gets further', it isn't anywhere near a strong enough trend to focus on when looking for an Arkle winner, in my opinion

The trainer (of Darver Star) has literally said he wants further than 2 miles too, which is well documented on the forum.



Definitely one for Any Race or Cash out if you back for the Arkle.... as Marsh has got to be the most likely at this stage.

[JackieMoon33]

That's a big call but you may be right. Henderson and De Bonville both said Shiskin could be better for a step up in distance so even with him you can argue the stamina case.

Very true. I'd only backed him for the Ballymore last season after he ran in his bumper at Kempton. A stubborn loss for me in the end as I missed the price on the Supreme and didn't back him.

[Kevloaf]

Very true. I'd only backed him for the Ballymore last season after he ran in his bumper at Kempton. A stubborn loss for me in the end as I missed the price on the Supreme and didn't back him.

No real incentive to try an unbeaten horse over 2m, up in trip though is there during their novice campaigns.

Hendo didn't with Spriner or Altior, and if we side with "if it ain't broke..." I don't have any worries at all about him running over further next season. He ran Simonsig over further and still brought him back to the Arkle. Without bringing in which race would look harder, it's not hard to see why plenty are assuming the Arkle will be Shishkin's target.


Doesn't mean he doesn't have stamina, doesn't mean he wouldn't be better over further one day, but we are just incredibly unlikely to see it unless he gets beaten at 2m... and if he gets beaten, he becomes moot as we'd all be on at abysmal prices.

[Lobos]

The Golden Miller (JLT/Marsh).... only came in, 2011.

That'll 100% affect the number of horses going to the Arkle and you can't be Tidal Bay, Forpady, My Way etc would have still gone for the Arkle so it skews your statistic a little.

Whilst it would do no harm knowing a horse 'gets further', it isn't anywhere near a strong enough trend to focus on when looking for an Arkle winner, in my opinion

The trainer (of Darver Star) has literally said he wants further than 2 miles too, which is well documented on the forum.



Definitely one for Any Race or Cash out if you back for the Arkle.... as Marsh has got to be the most likely at this stage.

The thing I don't understand with that is that DS has already been raced over 2 1/2+ several times and still reverted to 2 miles at the Fez. I think it'll be same again this season. Rather take on Shiskin than Envoi at this stage although, like you say, a price on DS for Marsh does no harm as we don't know how Envoi will perform over the big ones. I'd still say DS is fav for Arkle though . He didn't look like he needed an extra half mile the way he finished at Cheltenham. That hill is oh so different to pottering around Limerick or Naas at a snails pace over 2 1/2.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The thing I don't understand with that is that DS has already been raced over 2 1/2+ several times and still reverted to 2 miles at the Fez. I think it'll be same again this season. Rather take on Shiskin than Envoi at this stage although, like you say, a price on DS for Marsh does no harm as we don't know how Envoi will perform over the big ones. I'd still say DS is fav for Arkle though . He didn't look like he needed an extra half mile the way he finished at Cheltenham. That hill is oh so different to pottering around Limerick or Naas at a snails pace over 2 1/2.

If Shishkin and EA live up to the hype/expectations, next year might see a decent novice going into open company. I know it's unlikely but DS is going to be 9 next season so wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world, to me anyway.

[Kevloaf]

The thing I don't understand with that is that DS has already been raced over 2 1/2+ several times and still reverted to 2 miles at the Fez. I think it'll be same again this season. Rather take on Shiskin than Envoi at this stage although, like you say, a price on DS for Marsh does no harm as we don't know how Envoi will perform over the big ones. I'd still say DS is fav for Arkle though . He didn't look like he needed an extra half mile the way he finished at Cheltenham. That hill is oh so different to pottering around Limerick or Naas at a snails pace over 2 1/2.

Reverted to 2m at the fez?

If there was a 2m4f race, he'd have been in it .... that should help you understand.

Fortunately there isn't, but I'm with the trainer on this....

If he been a novice, he'd have been in Ballymore not Supreme.





I backed him for the Arkle originally and will keep it as I can cash out, but he's a great bet in the Marsh. That's where he'll end up, behind EA again.

[Lobos]

Reverted to 2m at the fez?

If there was a 2m4f race, he'd have been in it .... that should help you understand.

Fortunately there isn't, but I'm with the trainer on this....

If he been a novice, he'd have been in Ballymore not Supreme.





I backed him for the Arkle originally and will keep it as I can cash out, but he's a great bet in the Marsh. That's where he'll end up, behind EA again.

Im not having it. Arkle for me all day long. Think I'll go in again just in case Shiskin bombs.

[JackieMoon33]

No real incentive to try an unbeaten horse over 2m, up in trip though is there during their novice campaigns.

Hendo didn't with Spriner or Altior, and if we side with "if it ain't broke..." I don't have any worries at all about him running over further next season. He ran Simonsig over further and still brought him back to the Arkle. Without bringing in which race would look harder, it's not hard to see why plenty are assuming the Arkle will be Shishkin's target.


Doesn't mean he doesn't have stamina, doesn't mean he wouldn't be better over further one day, but we are just incredibly unlikely to see it unless he gets beaten at 2m... and if he gets beaten, he becomes moot as we'd all be on at abysmal prices.

100% Shishkin will be taking the tried and trusted Henderson route over 2m.

[Lobos]

100% Shishkin will be taking the tried and trusted Henderson route over 2m.

Absolutely. He knows a good Arkle horse when he sees one. Can't wait to see him over a fence.

[ComplyOrDie]

If Shishkin and EA live up to the hype/expectations, next year might see a decent novice going into open company. I know it's unlikely but DS is going to be 9 next season so wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world, to me anyway.

Valid point worth considering FM

[Spectre]

Embittered is a must bet at 50/1 with 365 for the Arkle. Some will want to back him any race, and I understand that as he's obviously now well in over hurdles, but his future lies over fences being a former pointer, plus the fact that he'll be 7 at next years Festival. I'd be pretty sure they'll be keen to get on with it.

His formline in the County puts him ahead of Saint Roi at the weights, so they could even be tempted to go the Champion Hurdle route, but with Abracadabras being such a big player for Gigi, he must surely go over fences so the Arkle is the obvious race. And obviously his form was given another massive boost last night.

Cashout is a bit of comfort, given the Marsh (33/1) could be an option, but Joseph was keen enough to keep Fakir to 2 miles this season, and Le Richebourg the season before that, so surely it'll be the same with Embittered. The other big thing for me with Embittered is that he's had either Jonny Slevin or Tony Hamilton on his back so far, but he's surely likely to get Davey's services as the season progresses. The O'Leary's will be keen to get the best available on his back as soon as possible you'd think.

[Lobos]

Embittered is a must bet at 50/1 with 365 for the Arkle. Some will want to back him any race, and I understand that as he's obviously now well in over hurdles, but his future lies over fences being a former pointer, plus the fact that he'll be 7 at next years Festival. I'd be pretty sure they'll be keen to get on with it.

His formline in the County puts him ahead of Saint Roi at the weights, so they could even be tempted to go the Champion Hurdle route, but with Abracadabras being such a big player for Gigi, he must surely go over fences so the Arkle is the obvious race. And obviously his form was given another massive boost last night.

Cashout is a bit of comfort, given the Marsh (33/1) could be an option, but Joseph was keen enough to keep Fakir to 2 miles this season, and Le Richebourg the season before that, so surely it'll be the same with Embittered. The other big thing for me with Embittered is that he's had either Jonny Slevin or Tony Hamilton on his back so far, but he's surely likely to get Davey's services as the season progresses. The O'Leary's will be keen to get the best available on his back as soon as possible you'd think.

A very decent shout. The form does now look incredibly strong.

[Spectre]

That was a very strong County and I backed all of the first 3 home early doors.

There's one more from the County and that's Thatsy. I'm not sure which route they'll go though. Perhaps a (novice) handicap chaser in the Plate, or possibly even the NH Chase as he's bred to stay forever. Finishing 8th in a hot County when he'll be a National's type horse over fences is a decent effort. His best runs over hurdles were over two and half, and he was a very good pointer, so I expect him to take the transition to fences easily and benefit for a step up. I think he's next seasons Ravenhill that could go either way. Targeted at the Plate, but an able sub for the NH Chase if necessary.

[Kevloaf]

That was a very strong County and I backed all of the first 3 home early doors.

There's one more from the County and that's Thatsy. I'm not sure which route they'll go though. Perhaps a (novice) handicap chaser in the Plate, or possibly even the NH Chase as he's bred to stay forever. Finishing 8th in a hot County when he'll be a National's type horse over fences is a decent effort. His best runs over hurdles were over two and half, and he was a very good pointer, so I expect him to take the transition to fences easily and benefit for a step up. I think he's next seasons Ravenhill that could go either way. Targeted at the Plate, but an able sub for the NH Chase if necessary.

Given connections, Thatsy is one I reckon might be campaigned in the very good novice hurdles, get beaten by top notchers and be a very typical Elliott improver in a festival handicap.

[Kautostar]

The last of the 4/1 on envoi allen has now gone