Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Saxon Warrior]

You’ve also got to factor in that Envoi has been a banker in the Marsh along with Shiskin in the Arkle for most of us in various multiples which given the quiet period for Festival betting has probably alerted the bookies IT software, it is probably an automatic reaction to EV being involved in so many bets.

Yep, if any horse is attracting 60%, 70%, 80% of any betting activity on a race, even on a light out-of-season one, then its going to get shortened.

Its probably just 'herd' betting, nothing more than that.

[KingSprinterSacre]

Bet365 clipped him today into 3s from 4s today also i see. Noticed on the cashouts.
Also pushed him out to 7s for the RSA

[Kevloaf]

Bet365 clipped him today into 3s from 4s today also i see. Noticed on the cashouts.
Also pushed him out to 7s for the RSA

That's because of the liability they now have on my roll ups




Glad they've pushed him to 7s for the RSA too. I'm not planning to cover it as I'm confident of the target, but if I get drunk and loose with my money it's an option

[The King Pimm]

I’ve covered Quel Destin for the Marsh today in a roll double an Fav at Market Rasen. 0.5pt at 80/1. He’s still 5 so will 6 next Festival and may improve chasing. He never participated in this years festival due to injury but if he does go chasing which is the plan I think this will be his race if he’s good enough.

[Hurdles or chasing]

If possible could someone get Mt Leinster priced up for the Arkle with Bet365 before he runs again on Friday. 50/1 with William hill but he is one I would need cash out with. Danny Mullins said recently that he might improve for a fence like Cash Back did this year.

[Hurdles or chasing]

Not sure if I have the stomach to back him again or if hes good enough but someone should try get Early Doors priced up for the NHC before he runs in the Plate

[Lobos]

Just looking through Arkle betting to find another alternative to Shiskin (Done Captain Guinness). Apart from him and Shiskin, the next horse likely to run in it is Champion Hurdle 3rd Darver Star. If he takes to fences there is no way he'll go off at 25/1. I remember the trainer and owner both saying after the Churdle that he'll go chasing and be aimed at the Arkle. He must be the top rated hurdler in the AP list. I'm on !!

[somer1]

Just looking through Arkle betting to find another alternative to Shiskin (Done Captain Guinness). Apart from him and Shiskin, the next horse likely to run in it is Champion Hurdle 3rd Darver Star. If he takes to fences there is no way he'll go off at 25/1. I remember the trainer and owner both saying after the Churdle that he'll go chasing and be aimed at the Arkle. He must be the top rated hurdler in the AP list. I'm on !!

Took the 16/1 any race with Hills on DS just after the shops opened

[Eggs]

Not sure if I have the stomach to back him again or if hes good enough but someone should try get Early Doors priced up for the NHC before he runs in the Plate

...27-1 ‘any race’ with Hills price boost.

[EnvoyAllen]

Just looking through Arkle betting to find another alternative to Shiskin (Done Captain Guinness). Apart from him and Shiskin, the next horse likely to run in it is Champion Hurdle 3rd Darver Star. If he takes to fences there is no way he'll go off at 25/1. I remember the trainer and owner both saying after the Churdle that he'll go chasing and be aimed at the Arkle. He must be the top rated hurdler in the AP list. I'm on !!

Marsh Novices I believe for Darver Star most likely Sir??

[Quevega]

Marsh Novices I believe for Darver Star most likely Sir??

Probably end up in stayers that one.

[Lobos]

Marsh Novices I believe for Darver Star most likely Sir??

Really? Can't see them taking on Envoi. Placed in Two Champion Hurdles ,surely they'll go Arkle. I know he flitted between 2 miles and 2 1/2 last season but the demands of 2 miles around Cheltenham suited him perfectly. He was leading approaching the last. Can see him going out in distance again this season but at Cheltenham I'll be surprised if he doesn't revert back to the minimum distance.

[Lobos]

Sat in the sun looking through previous Arkles. Noticeable how many winners were programmed over 2 1/2 miles during the season and then dropped to 2 miles in the Arkle. The last 2 winners did it plus Simonsig, Western Warhorse, Captain Chris, tidal bay, Forpadydeplssterer and My Way De Solven who incredibly won the Stayers Hurdle the previous year. Clearly a staying pedigree helps in this race and experience over 2 1/2 miles the same season helps (10 out of last 14 Arkle winners have won over 2 1/2). Makes me fancy Darvers Star even more.

[JackieMoon33]

Sat in the sun looking through previous Arkles. Noticeable how many winners were programmed over 2 1/2 miles during the season and then dropped to 2 miles in the Arkle. The last 2 winners did it plus Simonsig, Western Warhorse, Captain Chris, tidal bay, Forpadydeplssterer and My Way De Solven who incredibly won the Stayers Hurdle the previous year. Clearly a staying pedigree helps in this race and experience over 2 1/2 miles the same season helps (10 out of last 14 Arkle winners have won over 2 1/2). Makes me fancy Darvers Star even more.

Those are an average bunch of Arkle winners though. The winners that are not on your list who were genuine superstars (Sprinter, Douvan and Altior) never raced over 2 1/2 miles in their novice season and Shishkin is more likely to be in that bracket.

[Lobos]

Those are an average bunch of Arkle winners though. The winners that are not on your list who were genuine superstars (Sprinter, Douvan and Altior) never raced over 2 1/2 miles in their novice season and Shishkin is more likely to be in that bracket.

That's a big call but you may be right. Henderson and De Bonville both said Shiskin could be better for a step up in distance so even with him you can argue the stamina case.