Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Lobos]

So Paul Nicholls has put up Pic D’orhy as his horse to follow for the season, novice chaser this season after winning the Betfair hurdle last, have to admit I saw him in a schooling video yesterday and he looked great, I know it was only one fence but you could see the stride and technique was there, especially compared to the other three in the video, what do we feel will be his best trip?

Nicholls was king of 2 mile races Arkle and Champion Chase in the early 2000's. This could be the horse to get him back to those times. He looks a proper chaser

[Kautostar]

Pic dorhy seemed not to stay at ascot prior to winning at Newbury but maybe he just wasn’t fit that day. Breeding suggests 2 and a half miles would be his optimum but maybe they will just keep him to the minimum this season and possibly avoid Envoi Allen.

[Lobos]

Pic dorhy seemed not to stay at ascot prior to winning at Newbury but maybe he just wasn’t fit that day. Breeding suggests 2 and a half miles would be his optimum but maybe they will just keep him to the minimum this season and possibly avoid Envoi Allen.

Think you've nailed it there

[Kevloaf]

So Paul Nicholls has put up Pic D’orhy as his horse to follow for the season, novice chaser this season after winning the Betfair hurdle last, have to admit I saw him in a schooling video yesterday and he looked great, I know it was only one fence but you could see the stride and technique was there, especially compared to the other three in the video, what do we feel will be his best trip?

I've gone off him loads after being one of the first horses I think I backed ante post.

I just think he'll end up below the top bar... Arkle or Marsh, he'll be an also-ran.




That is total gut feeling on him now whilst I reflect, I am not pinning my colours to the mast by any stretch, but meh, just meh isn't he. More likely to win a big handicap than a festival novice chase?

[Kautostar]

Not so sure Kev, think he could be a player myself. They paid a lot of money for him and there was a lot of hype surrounding him during his triumph hurdle season. Nicholls has always seemed to really like him, I think he might just be one that is starting to improve into the horse connections always thought/hoped he was.

[Ballybeen]

I can definitely remember Nicholls mentioning the Arkle for next season straight after his betfair hurdle win. Might’ve been the FF podcast he did.

[Lobos]

Not so sure Kev, think he could be a player myself. They paid a lot of money for him and there was a lot of hype surrounding him during his triumph hurdle season. Nicholls has always seemed to really like him, I think he might just be one that is starting to improve into the horse connections always thought/hoped he was.

Agree. It was a very rushed programme with him when he first arrived. Was gelded then ran in Triumph when he really should have been put away. The hype and price tag didn't help. Played catch up for s bit but then hit the jackpot unexpectedly at Newbury. He could he anything.

[Kevloaf]

Not so sure Kev, think he could be a player myself. They paid a lot of money for him and there was a lot of hype surrounding him during his triumph hurdle season. Nicholls has always seemed to really like him, I think he might just be one that is starting to improve into the horse connections always thought/hoped he was.

Yeah that's all very fair mate - I can't even put my finger on why I've gone off him either!

Having backed him, I clearly at one point very much liked the idea




To be honest, making my mind up about any novice chaser before watching them jump a fence is a bit stoopid. It's just a feeling. Last time I thought that about a Nicholls horse it was Cyrname and he ended up being the highest rated horse in training at one point

[Spectre]

I think he's one of those where the expectation was built up, and he'd be easy to ignore prior to going over fences because of it.

They've definitely minded Pic D'orhy, and Nicholls tends to do that with those he regards as future chasers.

The nagging doubt last season left with me is whether he's going to be one who wants a sharp track, and whether Cheltenham suits at all. Maybe he'll be more the in the Cyrname mould than an Azertyuiop. What I mean by that is perhaps they'll start him off with the Arkle in mind, but will end up with a horse for the Melling Chase.

[The King Pimm]

I have backed Pic D’orhy for the Arkle in small stake roll ups but with limited confidence he will even turn up to the Festival. Apart from Diego Du Charmil and Solo I can think of many Johnny De Lay Hay (what a name.....I think of the song La Bamba when I see it) horses that have run at the Festival in recent years??? I’m not sure if he’s not that fussed with Cheltenham or he buys horses suited by flat right handed courses?? His big recent buys of Pic D’Orhy and Solo both bombed on their runs at Cheltenham so there’s not much to get enthused about when considering them.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think he's one of those where the expectation was built up, and he'd be easy to ignore prior to going over fences because of it.

They've definitely minded Pic D'orhy, and Nicholls tends to do that with those he regards as future chasers.

The nagging doubt last season left with me is whether he's going to be one who wants a sharp track, and whether Cheltenham suits at all. Maybe he'll be more the in the Cyrname mould than an Azertyuiop. What I mean by that is perhaps they'll start him off with the Arkle in mind, but will end up with a horse for the Melling Chase.

His Auteuil form would calm the doubts for me that he wouldn't handle Cheltenham.

I can forgive his one run at the track to date, and even that day he looked a chaser in the making.

That said, on collateral form lines over hurdles I'd be inclined to think a horse like Embittered (who someone put up on here at 50/1 for the Arkle, possibly yourself Sepctre) would be a better betting proposition than Pic D'Orhy. The likes of Ciel De Neige, Sir Valentine & Stolen Silver, being well beat in the County but finishing close enough to Pic D'Orhy in the Betfair that it would be a question mark over his actual ability. The counter to that is that he may just not be suited by the pacier, smaller obstacles, and done well to win the Betfair Hurdle at all, and that he could improve for a fence, which I guess is what many who have backed him, are hoping for.

[Lobos]

Think we all can forgive him his run in the Triumph. He was rushed into that race after being gelded only a few weeks before and without a run in England. I think his price tag had a bit to do with it and if Nicholls had his time again he wouldn't have ran him. He travelled well and looked like he would be involved for a while but then faded without being given a hard time. I'd certainly give him another chance around the course. He clearly does have ability and the scope to improve as a chaser. He is in the 'could be anything' bracket.

[Spectre]

His Auteuil form would calm the doubts for me that he wouldn't handle Cheltenham.

I can forgive his one run at the track to date, and even that day he looked a chaser in the making.

That said, on collateral form lines over hurdles I'd be inclined to think a horse like Embittered (who someone put up on here at 50/1 for the Arkle, possibly yourself Sepctre) would be a better betting proposition than Pic D'Orhy. The likes of Ciel De Neige, Sir Valentine & Stolen Silver, being well beat in the County but finishing close enough to Pic D'Orhy in the Betfair that it would be a question mark over his actual ability. The counter to that is that he may just not be suited by the pacier, smaller obstacles, and done well to win the Betfair Hurdle at all, and that he could improve for a fence, which I guess is what many who have backed him, are hoping for.

I'd agree there's definitely a question mark hanging over the level of form he's actually shown CoD. Auteuil is as flat a pancake though, which adds more weight to him so far being seen to best effect at a flat track. He's looks the sort to improve for fences so may well improve so I'm not writing him off.

Yes it was me that highlighted Embittered at 50/1, and I like him as a genuine value alternative to Shishkin. Also JO'B will surely follow his usual plan of sticking to 2 miles. He actually came out 4lb better at the weights than Saint Roi in the County, and if Captain Guinness, who is second favourite of those that'll run in the Arkle, was in the Champion Hurdle in a match against Saint Roi, I'd be backling Saint Roi. Tenuous I know, but nevertheless.

[Spectre]

On the theme from earlier with regards spending time looking back at last years Cheltenham Festival races, there's a horse not currently priced up for the RSA or the NH Chase that would interest me if I could get 50/1+ with cashout. He might not be everyone's cup of tea, and most people won't immediately see him as an obvious candidate, but I think he wouldn't be without a chance if he was targeted that way.

Hold The Note will be a second season chaser who has already shown he acts around Cheltenham, when finishing 3rd in last seasons Northern Trust Novices behind two horses that I've already backed in open chases at this seasons Festival. He looked as though he needed every yard of the trip last March though, where he didn't appear to have the pace to keep tabs on Imperial Aura and Galvin, but was still running on through the line. As an equivalent formline I'd take a comparison as a hurdler finishing 3rd in the Martin Pipe and then being targeted at one of the staying novice chases the following season. The difference with Hold The Note is he already has key chasing experience. I quite like Galvin for the NH Chase too, but I suspect Hold The Note would be far more competitive with that one over 3m6f than he was over 2m4f. In fact I'm not sure which way I'd go on the day because I see the trip as being a leveller.

You could argue he's been the bridesmaid so far over fences, but I also went back and watched his race at Warwick over 3 miles, where he looked every bit the winner before finishing green. I think with that experience behind him he's an interesting horse to get onside in some way. I like second season chasers with proven course form. And there was enough about his performances to suggest he may well be a much better horse this time around with that experience under his belt. He'll still only be 7 this time around, and the whole thing probably happened a year too early for him last season. A price in the 50/1-66/1 for both the RSA and NH Chase would be interesting given they'd be a bit crazy not to make the most of his novice status. He could target the Festival Handicap Chase on the Tuesday, but why? I'm sure they'll exploit his mark somewhere, but they surely won't wait until March to do it when they have the potential of nice handicap somewhere along the way, and then an Open Graded Novice Chase in March.

I'm pretty sure 365 canned my original account three years ago for asking for too many prices, so could someone so-minded ask them and/or Paddy Power for a price please.

[BookieBasher]

On the theme from earlier with regards spending time looking back at last years Cheltenham Festival races, there's a horse not currently priced up for the RSA or the NH Chase that would interest me if I could get 50/1+ with cashout. He might not be everyone's cup of tea, and most people won't immediately see him as an obvious candidate, but I think he wouldn't be without a chance if he was targeted that way.

Hold The Note will be a second season chaser who has already shown he acts around Cheltenham, when finishing 3rd in last seasons Northern Trust Novices behind two horses that I've already backed in open chases at this seasons Festival. He looked as though he needed every yard of the trip last March though, where he didn't appear to have the pace to keep tabs on Imperial Aura and Galvin, but was still running on through the line. As an equivalent formline I'd take a comparison as a hurdler finishing 3rd in the Martin Pipe and then being targeted at one of the staying novice chases the following season. The difference with Hold The Note is he already has key chasing experience. I quite like Galvin for the NH Chase too, but I suspect Hold The Note would be far more competitive with that one over 3m6f than he was over 2m4f. In fact I'm not sure which way I'd go on the day because I see the trip as being a leveller.

You could argue he's been the bridesmaid so far over fences, but I also went back and watched his race at Warwick over 3 miles, where he looked every bit the winner before finishing green. I think with that experience behind him he's an interesting horse to get onside in some way. I like second season chasers with proven course form. And there was enough about his performances to suggest he may well be a much better horse this time around with that experience under his belt. He'll still only be 7 this time around, and the whole thing probably happened a year too early for him last season. A price in the 50/1-66/1 for both the RSA and NH Chase would be interesting given they'd be a bit crazy not to make the most of his novice status. He could target the Festival Handicap Chase on the Tuesday, but why? I'm sure they'll exploit his mark somewhere, but they surely won't wait until March to do it when they have the potential of nice handicap somewhere along the way, and then an Open Graded Novice Chase in March.

I'm pretty sure 365 canned my original account three years ago for asking for too many prices, so could someone so-minded ask them and/or Paddy Power for a price please.

Price requested from Bet365 for RSA and NH

They’re not the quickest to respond but hopefully be priced up in the markets in 24 hours