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Managed to get one priced up that I think has gone way under the radar, in Stay Humble, at 33/1 with Bet365 and PP said they will put it up at 50/1 shortly!!
He had been a talking horse for quite a bit of time before he made his debut at Fairyhouse where he could only manage a disappointing 4th place. It then took him another 3 attempts before getting off the mark on the flat, winning a low key race at Downpatrick.
He missed the Cheltenham festival this year, where he was quite strong in the Bumper market before his first defeat, but I don't see the skipping of this race a negative at all, in fact I'd be happier to back him knowing he missed the Bumper, as it's not a race I like using in finding the following seasons novice hurdlers, with the exception of the Albert Bartlett.
He won his maiden hurdle, over 3m, and only naturally he was added to the Albert Bartlett market at a big 40/1, however I am not so sure that is where he'd be best placed myself, breeding would suggest an intermediate trip would be preferential and I'm happy to go along with that. I am not reading anything into what he beat on hurdles debut, as they will all likely turn out to be irrelevant in terms of class, another reason why a debut over 3m would not have been an issue IMO, because his class was always going to be enough to beat them.
He was obviously late in getting on course, suggesting he either had issues or was just a little slow getting his act together, but either way he does not look to have any problems with whatever it was now, given he won his last 2 races comfortably enough, and improvement may well be and have to be on the cards now.
The fact PP have offered 50's would not feel me with a whole heap of confidence, as they rarely get the market wrong, especially when it comes to WPM's runners, however, I will take the leap of faith, if only small, as I do feel 50's on a Mullins runner who is 1 from 1 over hurdles and is likely to improve a lot now he has got his act together is somewhat big!
He has an entry on Sunday over 2m 4f, so will be interesting to see if he takes up that race, as WPM has a few entered for that one.
“Stay Humble has started to mature and now looks a good bit stronger. He came with a big reputation — and while he didn’t quite live up to it last season, he’s starting to show us what he was supposed to have at home lately.
“He’s a galloper and he stays really well, so he might be an Albert Bartlett type horse.”
He doesn't run, which is no big deal anyway, plenty of time for him.
I hadn't seen that quote Innoko, so thanks, however I always envisioned them saying he was going to potentially be an Albert Bartlett type, but I'd respectfully disagree for now, despite my knowledge being far less superior to theirs, I think at this stage of the season I am happy to take most quotes with a pinch of salt
He doesn't run, which is no big deal anyway, plenty of time for him.
I hadn't seen that quote Innoko, so thanks, however I always envisioned them saying he was going to potentially be an Albert Bartlett type, but I'd respectfully disagree for now, despite my knowledge being far less superior to theirs, I think at this stage of the season I am happy to take most quotes with a pinch of salt
To be fair it came from Walsh in the week, so a 'pinch of salt' is most definitely needed
Nice one Innoko, had a few points with Bet 365 for the Supreme (had already backed him for the Ballymore) after Gordon's comments saying he'd prefer shorter. Have been cashing that out and replacing with free bets over last week or so as the 25s didn't move. The lack of money for him in either race concerns me somewhat and I don't want too many points of real money on him at this stage.
Nice one Innoko, had a few points with Bet 365 for the Supreme (had already backed him for the Ballymore) after Gordon's comments saying he'd prefer shorter. Have been cashing that out and replacing with free bets over last week or so as the 25s didn't move. The lack of money for him in either race concerns me somewhat and I don't want too many points of real money on him at this stage.
I wouldn't say there was a lack of money for him, well not on the exchanges anyway, there was just a lack of a market really, but he dominates the Ballymore with over 50% of money (albeit small) matched on him.
Fair point CoD, should have clarified 'high street bookie' prices have hardly moved since their opening shows. Might be one that shows more on the track, but at this early stage I'd like to see a bit more support for him if I was considering any sort of top up
Afternoon all, don't normally post but im an avid reader. With COF being entered over 2m6f friday would you assume this rules out Supreme route? I would assume they wouldn't start out further and come back in distance?
Afternoon all, don't normally post but im an avid reader. With COF being entered over 2m6f friday would you assume this rules out Supreme route? I would assume they wouldn't start out further and come back in distance?
I'd be pretty sure he won't run in that race, looks like it would suit invincible cave to me. . But you'd have to be massively worried if cof did run and you was on for the supreme
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Yea I would agree he doesn't look likely to run friday, Im very much in the ballymore camp at this stage, so the entry would confirm rough target distance at the very least I suppose
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