J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[Kevloaf]

Bigger field- surely have more than 4 or 5.....even if not, Real Steel likes to go from the front a lot, so there'll be pace, and not mean LIT has to do the dirty work.

It's nothing to do with the size of field not suiting DDS, its the fact, in the small fields the last twice, he's had LIT to sit and track both times- one time he beat him, one he didn't. Will he get it that easy this time? I wouldn't think so.

LIT might not get it as easy in front then though...

DDS isn't relying on LIT, he just needs a good pace and a horse to take him as far as possible in to the race... if that's LIT, fine, if not...he'll track whatever else is infront approaching the last.

The more, the merrier for DDS and the game plan for him .... this is how he won the Triumph:

Held up, headway before 3 out, tracked leaders going well before 2 out, led on long run to last, ran on strongly to go clear run-in (tchd 11/4)

I don't think the field size is going to harm that plan in any way whatsoever.

[jack1092]

For me if there's one to move its top of the game. Great run over middle distance last year here, so he'd have been the one i thought might drop down for an easier race.

COD, i don't think it's as easy as that, but it's impossible to know anyway. DDS didn't jump at all well, and finished 25Ls off Lalor. He was beaten by Pingshou 3Ls...I'd happily say DDS is better than Dynamite Dollars. Considering Lalor disappointed last time, there can't be too much between them either.

[Quevega]

LIT might not get it as easy in front then though...

DDS isn't relying on LIT, he just needs a good pace and a horse to take him as far as possible in to the race... if that's LIT, fine, if not...he'll track whatever else is infront approaching the last.

The more, the merrier for DDS and the game plan for him .... this is how he won the Triumph:

Held up, headway before 3 out, tracked leaders going well before 2 out, led on long run to last, ran on strongly to go clear run-in (tchd 11/4)

I don't think the field size is going to harm that plan in any way whatsoever.

Exactly how I see it going.
In the arkle

The run against lalor has to be ignored - he ran like a balloon on a string.
If they can travel
they can travel
He'll only lose if his jumping lets him down again.

[jack1092]

LIT might not get it as easy in front then though...

DDS isn't relying on LIT, he just needs a good pace and a horse to take him as far as possible in to the race... if that's LIT, fine, if not...he'll track whatever else is infront approaching the last.

The more, the merrier for DDS and the game plan for him .... this is how he won the Triumph:

Held up, headway before 3 out, tracked leaders going well before 2 out, led on long run to last, ran on strongly to go clear run-in (tchd 11/4)

I don't think the field size is going to harm that plan in any way whatsoever.

Kev, you're missing my point (i think anyway). The form between the two has been pretty much 2 races with them two only at the business end. Defi tracked LIT from the 8 out last time. It was a stalking race, where LIT had to lead....how often does a two horse stalking contest portray real form? Not often.

I said a bigger field, not big field, and bigger field which will have a better pace for LIT to run at as well remember. LIT best form came at Aintree, held up. Not leading, so easy leads are not necessarily his "need".

DDS is not relying on LIT, i've never said so, he's benefited from sitting in behind LIT on two occasions now and just pouncing. I doubt the same thing happens here with more horses wanting to race prominently.

[Kevloaf]

Lostintranslation
JLT Novices' Chase
He's one of the favourites and I keep looking at him thinking I should have had him in the RSA, but he's been so good over two and a half miles. He was second to Defi Du Seuil in the Scilly Isles last time, which is lovely form. He's got form around Cheltenham and I'm sure they'll go a pace and he can jump off handy. He's a big strong horse and whatever he does this season hopefully we can have him as a Gold Cup horse next year – I think that's what he is. He's more stamina than speed, which is what Defi Du Seuil had on us. That won't happen at Cheltenham because there'll be other horses in the race and the pace will be stronger, so hopefully our stamina will kick in.




Me and Tizzard have a different view on the exact same thing

[jack1092]

Tizzard agreeing with me. Not surprised all the same, but exactly why i see the race suiting LIT down to the ground...

[Kevloaf]

DDS is not relying on LIT, i've never said so, he's benefited from sitting in behind LIT on two occasions now and just pouncing. I doubt the same thing happens here with more horses wanting to race prominently.

I'm saying DDS has loads more to sit behind now then, and will pounce on.

The more than race prominently, the better the pace he has taking him in to the race and can pounce late on?




I prefer LIT but you've led me down this path

[Kevloaf]

Tizzard agreeing with me. Not surprised all the same, but exactly why i see the race suiting LIT down to the ground...

The pooint you're making, is that it might suit LIT more...

I think a stronger run race will also suit DDS more.

[Quevega]

The pooint you're making, is that it might suit LIT more...

I think a stronger run race will also suit DDS more.

DDS more chance of getting outstayed in the JLT than the arkle.
Because of similar thinking to Tizzard.
It's harder to kick for home after going 29mph for 2m 4f than 2m.

[boopa]

Strongly run races suit the stayers more than the horses with a turn of foot. The stamina test blunts their speed advantage.

[jack1092]

I'm saying DDS has loads more to sit behind now then, and will pounce on.

The more than race prominently, the better the pace he has taking him in to the race and can pounce late on?




I prefer LIT but you've led me down this path

Haha!

Yes but when comparing the two horses directly, they've ran twice vs eachother and it's happened on LIT twice. It won't this time, it might suit DDS with more pace, but hes had the pace to run at the last twice, with LIT setting the gallop for him to sit in the slipstream. This time, LIT hopefully will have that scenario too, allowing him to perform better.

Faster run race over 2m4 miles will suit LIT much more than a speedier DDS.

[Quevega]

Strongly run races suit the stayers more than the horses with a turn of foot. The stamina test blunts their speed advantage.

exactly....
they just need to go the gallop in the first place and jump efficiently also.

[Kevloaf]

But none of them (including LIT) are that good to turn it into a test of stamina... I don't think they'll burn DDS off and out stay him.... they aren't good enough to?

Real steel the danger? Pfft

Topofthegame would.

[ComplyOrDie]

DDS holds LIT on form IMO.

There is no denying that LIT looks stamina laden, and Tizzard now questioning himself as to why he wasn't entered in the 3m race too (typical Tizzard). DDS has gradually got better over fences as the season has progressed.

We can all say LIT had the beating of DDS that once, but not to forget he was firstly getting 3lbs from DDS and secondly, as many pointed out at the time, Barry pushed the button too soon on DDS, and learnt from his mistake the next time.

I also noted DDS's jumping still not great that last time, the first three fences were pretty poor, no way he goes well in the Arkle IMO, I'd be laying him, and place laying him too. If connections thought he was a 2miler he'd have been over that distance again, and not stepped up after just one try.

I see DDS as very much a travelling horse, partnered with someone like Ruby he'd probably be all the better for it IMO, but Barry will have to do.

[jack1092]

I'd personally fear TOTG dropping in here more than DDS staying put. Just my view.

Camelia De Cotte if she ran here, Real Steel even VDR (doubt he'd force the pace over 4 furlongs more but who knows)

They might not be good enough to win it, but their best chance comes if they race from the front. It'll suit LIT for me most- granted those 3 are mullins and surely dont all go here lol.