2017 Mares Hurdle

[Ballybeen]

Yes Kev just noticed them tweeting it earlier.

[Kevloaf]

PP betting 4/9 Ruby rides Limini 13/8 VVM

I know I may be completely wrong because they are a difficult outfit to read but after watching the Willie and Ruby interviews again I honestly think it'll be Limini in champion hurdle and VVM here in Mares.

VROUM VROUM MAG

I think Vroum Vroum will go for the Mares' Hurdle. On her last performance, that's all I can see her doing.

I’d have no problem with her going back over fences but the hurdle programme is suiting her better at the moment.

She was terrible at Doncaster. But she’s coming back right, we’re much happier with her.

I think she was just brewing some sort of a cold and when we got home we gave her antibiotics. I gave her an easy time, she’s had bits of work since and we’re happier with her now she’s coming back to herself.

I don’t think she could run in a Champion Hurdle after Doncaster. I don’t think we could ask her any of those questions now. The mares’ hurdle is the obvious route for her now

[Kevloaf]

Anyone think it is interesting that BetBright are 7/4 Limini (not NRNB) which is by far and away the shortest price on offer? Also joint top price on VVM (6/4)?

[ryanh97]

Anyone think it is interesting that BetBright are 7/4 Limini (not NRNB) which is by far and away the shortest price on offer? Also joint top price on VVM (6/4)?

Now that is interesting...

[Jonnymac05]

Forum is lit tonight

[Kevloaf]

Pre Chelt 2016 - BEATEN FAVOURITES LAST TIME - Since the turn of the century, 660 horses have run at the Festival having been beaten favourite last time out. 21 winners or only a 3.5% strike rate (or by price 33/1). In 2015, a total of 64 animals ran having been beaten favourite last time out. People don't believe me but none of them won. Since 2000 on £1 stakes you will only show a profit of £22.50 in the RSA, £30 in the County Hurdle and £2 in the Champion Hurdle. Backing them blindly would leave you £341.25 adrift. It is suggested by the great James Pyman in the comic that the three RSA winning 'beaten favs', Lord Noelie, Hussard Collonges and Trabolgan were beaten either at 'sharp' tracks or at a distance less than 3 miles. At least three of the 21 winners were beaten at odds on, five were Irish trained, four Nicholls, three Henderson. Fantastic stuff. This is the Olympics. A second chance to disappoint? Those that may be involved in 2016 include Peace and Co, L'Ami Serge, Shaneshill, Ivanovich Gorbatov, Black Hercules, Actival, Champagne West, Road to Riches, Djakadam.

This years...BEATEN FAVOURITES LAST TIME - Its always difficult when you see a friend go so I was disappointed when I realised how bad a hit this, one of my favourite stats, had taken in the 2016 Festival. (That's what happens when you rely on these fecking things too much). 55 beaten favourites last time out came to Prestbury Park last year and the following six won. Un Temps Pour Tout, Any Currency, Diego Du Charmil, Black Hercules, Ivanovich Gorbatov and On the Fringe. I can console myself with the knowledge that level stakes on all 55 would still have cost you 16 pts but its just not the same any more.

WEnt looking for this stat as a reason to be confident about Apples Jade being beaten in this race... but as the second buit says, that stat got smashed out of the way last year

[Kevloaf]

Since the turn of the century, 715 horses have run at the Festival having been beaten favourite last time out. 27 winners or a 3.6% strike rate. About 28/1. In 2015, a total of 64 ran having been beaten favourite last time out. No one believed me but none of them won. Since 2000 on £1 stakes you will only show a profit of £21.50 in the RSA and £30 in the County Hurdle. No other race in profit. Backing all beaten favs blindly to £1 would leave you £357.25 adrift. It is suggested by the great James Pyman in the comic that the three RSA winning 'beaten favs', Lord Noelie, Hussard Collonges and Trabolgan were beaten either at 'sharp' tracks or at a distance less than 3 miles. At least six of the 26 winners had been beaten at evens or shorter (Black Hercules at 4/11), eight were Irish trained, five Nicholls, three Henderson. Fantastic stuff. This is the Olympics. Do you get a second chance to disappoint? Maybe. Those that may be involved in this poser in 2017 include Bellshill, Bapaume, Don Poli, Bristol De Mai,

and Apples Jade?

[jono]

There's a very good chance that the trend will strengthen after this year then with none of Bellshill, Bapaume, Don Poli, Bristol de Mai and Apples Jade personally looking like winning, AJ and Bapaume the better hopes of defying it?

[Kevloaf]

AJ I suppose the most likely, as the (at least) clear 2nd best horse in the race on spring ground. Her 2nd at last years festival is better than anything else that will line up, bar VVM's win last year or Limini's Mares Novice run from the year after....

Imagine if VVM hadn't managed to win at Doncaster, I'd be lost

[jono]

A few rumours floating around that Let's Dance could be going for the Mares race on day 1.

Possibly nothing in it but I guess if VVM has had any more issues since they can switch Let's Dance in here which would give her the step up in trip needed, a strong chance to still get the £50k bonus and clear the way for Airlie Beach in the mares novice?

[squiggsy68]

A few rumours floating around that Let's Dance could be going for the Mares race on day 1.

Possibly nothing in it but I guess if VVM has had any more issues since they can switch Let's Dance in here which would give her the step up in trip needed, a strong chance to still get the £50k bonus and clear the way for Airlie Beach in the mares novice?

I assume if that were the case then VVM just wouldn't be showing up? I can't see her in any other race than this one.

Let's Dance though - if only we knew where she was going!

[Cashew King]

A few rumours floating around that Let's Dance could be going for the Mares race on day 1.

Possibly nothing in it but I guess if VVM has had any more issues since they can switch Let's Dance in here which would give her the step up in trip needed, a strong chance to still get the £50k bonus and clear the way for Airlie Beach in the mares novice?

Billy Nash at the Timeform preview wasn't aware of anything but thought it more likely Let's Dance would go Mares race rather than Neptune - hasn't heard but wondered if VVM has had an issue & Lets Dance is the replacement. He was keen wherever she went so 8/1 NRNB could be the safest option. If Limini goes Champion & VVM doesn't go here it won't be that price.

[jono]

He was keen wherever she went so 8/1 NRNB could be the safest option. If Limini goes Champion & VVM doesn't go here it won't be that price.

Certainly not. Tomorrow will be interesting with the supplementation stage (Limini CH). What they do there will have a knock on effect with Wylie's other mares

[ComplyOrDie]

Willie Mullins has all but confirmed VVM goes for this race. Surely means Limini is definitely CH bound now?

[KingSprinterSacre]

With Limini not supplemented what happens now? Surely he doesn't send both VVM and Limini here?