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It'll be Limini for me in this now. The vibes about VVM aren't great and if Limini doesn't run here, I'll be firmly in the Apples Jade camp
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Originally I've been saying I think VVM is a better mare than Limini ... and that is why VVM would/should go CH (2m G1 winning fomr) but that can't be the right reasoning....
They've also said she DOESN'T get 3 miles...... Ricci has contradicted himself yet again saying they might run against each other.
My gut now thinks VVM might "spark" this week and go for the CH..... but I feel like I've have got the right answer by the wrong method.***
Almost a waste of time thinking about it until we know, the prices are pretty accurate. If they do run against each other I'll have to spend AGES working out which one is better for me
*** what was that brilliant quote... "it's like spending 20 minutes studying the owners colours and horses names and coming up with the right answer"Comment
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I REALLY can't see them both running in this at all, but if they do...Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
Bit of a catch 22 with VVM now. I actually really liked Limini's last run and thought she would have had as good a chance as most of the field in the CH and a better chance than VVM as I just don't think 2 miles is enough of a trip for her (VVM), with the 2m4 trip absolutely ideal.
If this was the only entry for each horse and say Graham Wylie trained one or the other i'd be siding with VVM 100%. But...
The problem I have now though is if VVM improves in her work and shows that spark at home over the next few days - they'll go CH.
If she doesn't, then it comes down to 2 options : bypass the festival and hope she comes good later in the Spring (a possibility maybe with the fight for the Irish Championship - keep her back for Punchestown and get her back to full form then??) or go up against Limini.
So if they take on Limini they still haven't been able to get her right and that would have to be a concern - as good as Mullins and co are for getting a horse to raise their game on the day. With it being the easiest race she could line up in maybe they decide to have Limini in there as number 1 and VVM to pick up the pieces in the race if needed as they might as well run her just incase...
I hate siding for a horse primarily on who the jockey riding is (a factor but not a deciding factor) but then add in Ruby's choice and if he sided with Limini i'd have to switch over from fancying VVM
But anyway I don't think they'll both run so nonsense really...
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The OLBG Mares Hurdle is one of the newer races, introduced in 2008, and is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4F. The one horse that has dominated this race is Quevega, who has won 6 of the 9 runnings. For obvious reasons, her dominance means that looking at some trends based on the winners will be meaningless but if you omit her from some statistics, we may be able to find the mare most likely to take over her mantle.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Quevega won the 6 runnings between 2009 & 2014 (aged 5 to 10), it may be more enlightening to look at age stats when removing her from the race.
Age stats w/o Quevega (i.e. the 2nd to Quevega is counted as winner)
4yo: 0-0-3
5yo: 1-1-23
6yo: 4-4-44
7yo: 3-5-38
8yo: 1-6-27
9yo+: 0-2-9
10yo+: 0-0-2
The only horse to ever win it aged older than 8 was Quevega, as a 9 & 10 year old. 6yos have done best of the runners, when excluding Quevega, winning 4 of 8.
Breeding
The French-bred Quevega has won 6 of the 9 runnings, but when excluding her from the 9 renewals, breeding stats read:
Irish Bred: 3-12-61
British Bred: 3-5-53
French Bred: 2-1-22
German bred: 1-0-1
USA bred: 0-0-1
Recent/Past Form of 11 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega
10 of 11 finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 completed starts (exception 5th in grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
11 of 11 finished in first 2 on last completed start (8 won)
10 of 11 won 1 of last 2 starts
9 of 11 posted an RPR of 140+ last time
10 of 11 had run in past 55 days
8 of 11 had previously run in 4 to 11 hurdles races
11 of 11 had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August
10 of 11 had won over 2M 4F to 2M 5F
9 of 11 had won a class 1 NH flat race or hurdle (2 exceptions were 2nd in a grade 2)
10 of 11 had contested a grade 1 or 2 under NH rules (exception had won two listed hurdles)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 11111 (5-0-5)
Warwick OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Rons Dream): 210 (1-1-3) War 8 Feb
Irish Stallions EBF Mares Champion Hurdle winner (Whiteout): 035U2F (0-2-6)
Grabel Mares Hurdle winner (Let's Dance): 030 (0-1-3)
Doncaster OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 3P04 (0-1-4)
Willis Towers EBF Mares Hurdle winner (Let's Dance): 0306 (0-1-4)
32Red.com Mares' Hurdle winner (Lifeboat Mona): 37890 (0-1-5)
Trisoft Mares Handicap Hurdle winner (Lifeboat Mona): 57 (0-0-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Final winner (Jer's Girl): 040 (0-0-3)
Kempton OLBG Mares Hurdle winner (Surtee Du Berlais): 850 (0-0-3) Kem 25 Nov
Record of first 4 from World Series Hurdle: 211111 (5-1-6)
5 of 9 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 11114
2 of 9 winners ran in Prix La Barka, finishing 97
Other Races (11 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega)
5 of 11 ran in Warfield Hurdle, finishing 2112
2 of 11 ran in Mares listed bumper at previous year's Aintree Festival, finishing 01
2 of 11 ran in World Series Hurdle, finishing 14
2 of 11 ran in the Inkerman EBF Mares Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 11 ran in Warwick Mares Listed Hurdle, finishing 11
Trainers
Willie Mullins (8-1-12) has won last 8 runnings, 6 with Quevega and with Glens Melody & Vroum Vroum Mag in last 2 years.
Harry Fry (0-1-4) & Jessica Harrington (0-1-6) have each trained 1 placed finisher in the last 2 runnings.
Alan King (0-1-5) trained the 3rd in 2014, his four other runners finished 4th, 5th, 4th & fell.
Irish trained runners (8-6-36) have won last 8 (6 of those were Quevega). If you remove Willie Mullins runners from the Irish contingent, their record becomes 0-5-24.
Price
6 of 9 winners were Quevega, who was sent off favourite on each occasion. Vroum Vroum Mag was an odds on winner in 2016, Whiteoak won it in 2008 at 20/1 and 2nd favourite Glens Melody winning it in 2015 as a result of Annie Power’s final hurdle fall.
Removing Quevega’s 6 wins, 14 of the other 21 places have been filled by double-figure priced runners and at least one horse price 16/1 or bigger has made the frame in every renewal (2nd & 3rd in 2016 were 66/1 & 40/1, 3rd in 2015 was 16/1, 2nd & 3rd in 2014 were 14/1 & 25/1, 2nd & 3rd in 2013 were priced 33/1 & 40/1, while in 2012 the 2nd & 3rd went off at 14/1 & 66/1).
Favourite (7-1-10) has won 7 of 9 (6 of 7 were Quevega), giving a level stakes profit of 5.03.
Summary:
Based on trends from past 8 runnings of horses that ran well (not Quevega) look for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- Finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 starts
- Finished in first 2 last time (in past 55 days)
- Won 1 of last 2 starts
- Posted an RPR of 140+ last time
- Had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August
- Has won over 2M 4F to 2M 5F
- Had won a class 1 race under NH rules (or placed in a graded hurdle)
- Made racecourse debut in a NH race
- Finished in first 2 in Warfield, Warwick OLBG.com Mares and/or 2015 World Series Hurdle
- Trained by Willie MullinsComment
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Couldn't have Limini for this with anyones money.
Not at all convinced she is ready for 2m 4f up that Cheltenham hill. Looks a speed horse to me. Quevega used to stay really well to win these.
Think the mares novice was perfect for her last year at 2m 1f against inferior opposition, and Apples Jade can make this a real test, as we saw in her Triumph run last year.Comment
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Can't agree there Al, she loved the hill last year and that was over the stiffer New Course.
She also got stronger as the race progressed against a fit Apples Jade on deep ground over 2m 4f last time, she needs a stamina test in my eyes, came unstuck at Aintree because it's a speed track in my opinion and not given chance to use stamina.
If that's your take you should be laying her all at 2.36 and have the field running for you....Comment
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If VVM and Limini and AJ torn up this is am incredible race really for entertainment, we can't have it both ways and complain the best don't take each other on. Vvm and liminI and AJ Aren't CH quality, so we should celebrate them running.
I'm still 100% in the camp that Willie won't let his grip on this race go, especially to AJ / Giggi so pathetically, whichever Ruby picks is my nap of the day.
The 'other' might hopefully drift too far but any one on each way out side the top 3 must be in a world of pain as it stands tonight?Comment
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I personally can't see the two racing each other! However, with the Limini win quite questionable as true form, and WPM in interviews seems to be thinking this i believe as well ( even if he doesn't say it) it is impossible he will run the two!
Just it normally isn't the done thing in the yard to have 2 runners from the same owners, especially when both would be fav!Comment
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The best Mares race ever!Comment
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But who does ruby rideComment
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Who goes from the front to harass Apples Jade?
Who sits behind Apples to pick up the pieces?
2-pronged attack to hold the title from WillieComment
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Rich gets a bad rep but there you go...that was last week.Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View PostComment
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Struggling to work this puzzle out now.
Limini looked awesome the last day. Is she best fresh? Will AJ come on massively for it as she did earlier in the season? Not ideal for AJ to front run, and essentially become a sitting duck either. But it was Liminis first run in ages, and i was really expecting AJ to win going from the front.
VVM faces them- does this mean a) having had AJ last season, they really fear her? b)VVM hasn't been firing and she'd be going elsewhere if she was? Therefore, you'd be siding with Limini? c) They are really questioning the Limini previous race and think AJ is a certainty to improve past her?
Basically, I could back all 3 for reasons, so I'm in a bit of a sticky one lolComment
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What a fascinating race if they all turn up. Interested to see how they price it up.Comment
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I am skeptical that both will turn up. VVM sparking, turns up to defend her crown. Limini kept back for Aintree? They'll say she wasn't working quite right.
OR the other way round?
I think if they do both line up, the only thing I'll have got right is that WIllie is going absolutely all out to ensure he wins this race, and Gigginstown and AJ don't!
As a single race I actuially have a nice spot, VVM *Any race) 8 points 11/4 and Limini 1.5 points each way at 10/1 .... but for multiples I absolutely need VVM to win!
She was my banker for the day, and if Ruby doesn't ride I will be in a mnuch worse position than I'd expected to be in!Comment
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