Arkle 2020

[SeanRock]

Olly Murphy said today that Thomas Darby is one he hopes will be an Arkle horse.

Seemed to suggest Brewinupastorm will start at 2m at Warwick but is one that may be stepped up in trip as and when.

Music to my ears that MOM. Given how well he ran in the Supreme on ground Olly said was unsuitable I think the 25/1 bet365 are offering a no brainer!

 

[Hurricane fly]

Would have liked a bit mor elf a clue with itchy feet

Could see them both lining up for the Arkle with Brewinupastorm in the JLT, baffling that he is second favourite for the 4miler with some firms

 

[SeanRock]

Would have liked a bit mor elf a clue with itchy feet

Could see them both lining up for the Arkle with Brewinupastorm in the JLT, baffling that he is second favourite for the 4miler with some firms

I don’t see Itchy Feet wanting a fence over any distance HF! He had no scope over the smaller obstacles last season! And thats coming from a fan who backed both him & TD in the Supreme.

 

[Kevloaf]

Olly Murphy said today that Thomas Darby is one he hopes will be an Arkle horse.

Seemed to suggest Brewinupastorm will start at 2m at Warwick but is one that may be stepped up in trip as and when.

883/1 the double with Brewin in the JLT...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd be concerned about the ground for him. Needs good ground doesn't he?

I would say not myself. I don't think he is that ground dependent.

Just hope he is well, as he had a solid season over hurdles, but for being brought down in the Champion Hurdle by Buveur D'air.

 

[charlie]

I posted up on Kev's AP thread but also worth noting here Melon is 16/1 with Betstars (the betting arm of Pokerstars). They have a limited AP market but are very slow to update so often leave prices unaltered for longer than normal. Melon has been cut to 10 and best priced 12, so 16/1 probably worth taking for those that like him but missed the earlier prices.

 

[Kevloaf]

I posted up on Kev's AP thread but also worth noting here Melon is 16/1 with Betstars (the betting arm of Pokerstars). They have a limited AP market but are very slow to update so often leave prices unaltered for longer than normal. Melon has been cut to 10 and best priced 12, so 16/1 probably worth taking for those that like him but missed the earlier prices.

I'd back this IF Mullins didn't make a point abut him stepping up in trip last season.

He could so easily fit in as a JLT contender (especially with his hurdles class) and Mullins' record in the JLT isn't to be ignored.

He must be the classiest horse going novice chasing, and while some won't want more than 2m yet... we 'know' he would get 2m5f?


I reckon Melon is my fav for the JLT at the moment. I imagine he's not priced up though... oooh I just checked and he is.... 20/1 with Sky (best price)

Free bet material.

 

[Kautostar]

Just take the 10/1 any race and then you don’t have to worry about it all season

 

[Quevega]

I'm copying -
Melon JLT might just happen. 20-1 worth a pop. freebets burning a hole

 

[Kautostar]

You’ll easily beat the sp at 10/1 providing he can jump

 

[Quevega]

Already regretting backing melon for JLT.
Backing a flat bred - especially by medicean.
as an 8 yr old novice chaser.
that runs below cheltenham form all season till march - so is likely to be a bigger price along the way.
Looks a certainty to end up in a hurdle race at the festival.
If only a genius trained him

 

[jono]

In no rush to back Melon at all over a fence. He hasn't won since November 2017. He's had numerous poor runs since then with just a few (albeit high level) strong runs dotted inbetween. Theres obvious pros in his corner and he would arguably be dropping down a level from top grade 1 open hurdles to a level playing ground of Novice chasing but he just doesnt win anywhere near enough. Who knows...fencing may well be the catalyst to bring it all together but he's disappointed far too often for me not to think he'll do so again. And the extra 2 years over hurdles will always be a niggle for me. No doubt he will win his beginners Chase and will single figures but I'd still bank on him losing at some point leading up to Cheltenham. If he turns up as Mullins sole Arkle / JLT horse I'd have to back certainly in the former such is his record but I'm happy to do so with evidence to go on.

 

[Quevega]

In no rush to back Melon at all over a fence. He hasn't won since November 2017. He's had numerous poor runs since then with just a few (albeit high level) strong runs dotted inbetween. Theres obvious pros in his corner and he would arguably be dropping down a level from top grade 1 open hurdles to a level playing ground of Novice chasing but he just doesnt win anywhere near enough. Who knows...fencing may well be the catalyst to bring it all together but he's disappointed far too often for me not to think he'll do so again. And the extra 2 years over hurdles will always be a niggle for me. No doubt he will win his beginners Chase and will single figures but I'd still bank on him losing at some point leading up to Cheltenham. If he turns up as Mullins sole Arkle / JLT horse I'd have to back certainly in the former such is his record but I'm happy to do so with evidence to go on.

It's like I temporarily forgot all this. Where were you to remind me about an hour ago ?
The only hope is Mullins and his cheltenham form.
But he's not one of my favourite horses by a long way.

 

[Kevloaf]

Jesus, you'd think I'd put a free bet on him to win Wimbledon.


Anyone who has placed actual money for him in the Arkle needs to come leaping to his defense or I'll tweet sky asking for a justice refund on my free bets.




Kautostar... I don't want him in my book at 10/1 if he ran in an Arkle at this stage.

I don't want him in my book with real money in the JLT either.


Jono ... if he'd be Mullins only contender in the JLT you wouldn't fancy him?
How many 8 year olds are still excelling at 2m.

Older = further.

Won't be fast enough for an Arkle.
JLT all day.

He's nap material.



Melon and champagne everywhere

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Anyone heard anything regarding Angels Breath and Al Dancer going forward?

I'm keen to get Angels Breath onside mostly, could easily see him ending up either here or the JLT.

 

[Native River]

Anyone heard anything regarding Angels Breath and Al Dancer going forward?

I'm keen to get Angels Breath onside mostly, could easily see him ending up either here or the JLT.

There was a quote in the quotes thread from NTD saying probably chasing for Al Dancer, not so sure on Angels Breath, but I would too be interested in Angels Breath over fences, seems to sort Henderson could bring some improvement over fences.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

No worries, thanks NR.

Angels Breath obviously has the PTP background, so you'd think he'd end up over the further distance, however I remember Nicky saying he was a particularly quick horse, he's also not very big, so I'd hope, if taking to fences, he'd be over them like a bullet.

 

[Kevloaf]

Angel's Breath must be on the naughty list?

I was happy to forgive the defeat with the prep he had when Southfield Stone beat him getting 5 lbs... but rubbish in the Supreme and looks held by Brewin'upastorm on the Aintree run (with Reserve Tank ahead)

He'll need to improve plenty for a fence (perfectly possible) but he's the kind of horse that I think we'd need to SEE over a fence before knowing if he can step up to winning grade 1's...

 

[The King Pimm]

NTD did state Al Dancer was going over fences this season and he sounded confident of his chances of progressing. He’s not featuring much in AP markets though from what I’ve seen.

 

[Quevega]

NTD did state Al Dancer was going over fences this season and he sounded confident of his chances of progressing. He’s not featuring much in AP markets though from what I’ve seen.

They thought it’d win champion hurdle before it ran in supreme