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Arkle 2020

billymag

billymag

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Sorry if this has already been started but couldnt see it so posting up

Im on Rathhill for the Arkle, agree most of the horses at the head of the market look like going else where (much like last year at this stage). Ive been trying to work out which race he would go to and I think for various reasons this looks the one. Ive had bigger bets any race on him but 33/1 for Arkle. Its all about potential and vibe ive got from stable, you couldnt have him on your mind after the Sandown run but ive put 2 and 2 together and hoping im right that hes Nickys runner for the Arkle.
 
Rathhill will probably be one I'll keep an eye on and hope I can back in running if I like what I see.

The Arkle is a bit of a struggle at the moment, I know many have reasons against Felix Desjy, and he certainly wouldn't be my idea of the winner, but in a race that traditionally cuts up I think he will be a place prospect.

I thought this years Arkle was piss poor, and I'm sure I am not alone in thinking that, but it was probably why we had an unusually high number of runners (12). Even this far I'll be mightily surprised if we end up with double figures this coming season.

I am waiting to see what Olly Murphy does with Thomas Darby and what Colin Tizzard does with Elixir De Nutz, but if either or both go chasing I suspect they will be the English runners than interest me, if anyone has heard anything regarding them please do spill ;)
 
I'm fairly sure Olly Murphy has said Thomas Darby and Brewinupastorm will go chasing this season. I think he confirmed that at the end of last season but stand to be corrected.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I'm fairly sure Olly Murphy has said Thomas Darby and Brewinupastorm will go chasing this season. I think he confirmed that at the end of last season but stand to be corrected.
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Perfect, thanks FM.
 
Both Thomas Darby and Brewinupastorm will start off over 2 miles over fences (when interviewed June time):

We'll start him (Thomas Darby) off at 2 miles over fences...We're going to drop him back(Brewinupastorm) to 2 miles. Hasn't quite been saying out his races as well as i'd liked...A drop in back in trip and over fences
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Does Fakir D’O go chasing?
When you look at the top of the market as it is I really can’t see many intended runners. Will Al Dancer be kept at two miles? He could easily be his years Lalor
 
I’ve backed.
Mister fisher at 50s.
Not convinced it’s a good bet though, I think I was bored that day.
But Henderson is good with these types and if it goes chasing it may be one capable of grade one level.
Bit inconsistent over hurdles but couple of pieces of form looked good on the eye from a future chaser perspective
 
jono said:
Both Thomas Darby and Brewinupastorm will start off over 2 miles over fences (when interviewed June time):
Click to expand...

Interesting. Probably hold fire on TD now then as despite starting out of over 2m, having Brewin'upastorm in the mix will further muddy the waters. I don't think he'll run both in the Arkle, and using the wording 'start off over 2 miles' suggests they could step him up, for TD.
 
quevega said:
I’ve backed.
Mister fisher at 50s.
Not convinced it’s a good bet though, I think I was bored that day.
But Henderson is good with these types and if it goes chasing it may be one capable of grade one level.
Bit inconsistent over hurdles but couple of pieces of form looked good on the eye from a future chaser perspective
Click to expand...

That might be a really good shout.

I remember the star sports preview before the Supreme and the assistant trainer (forgotten his name) for Henderson was very, very clear that he'd be better next season and they absolutely love him.

Paraphrasing but I remember having the impression he'd end up better than Angels Breath (turns it that isn't going to be as hard as we're once thought) but 50/1 is a dangler of a price.


Could be JLT I suppose too
 
Draconian
Thomas Darby
Brewin'upastorm

Are the first 3 that pop into my head for the Arkle
 
The 3 I’m interested in at this stage would be -
Melon
Brewin’Upastorm
Elixir de nutz
 
Will be keeping a close eye on Itchy Feet once again, really liked him last year and was on him very early and think he is still under the radar even after that Supreme with KD being so imposing. Draconien is obviously another one to keep an eye on, but I would like to know that he at least has 4 legs before I would start considering parting with cash :highly_amused:

For those stats fans one I always remember from GaultStats is that Nicky Henderson has had 8 runners in this with a hurdle rating 145+. 7 of those finished in the top 2, Angels Breath meets that, and Mister Fisher just misses out but as quevega says Nicky does do well with these types so well worth a watch!
 
Kevloaf said:
That might be a really good shout.

I remember the star sports preview before the Supreme and the assistant trainer (forgotten his name) for Henderson was very, very clear that he'd be better next season and they absolutely love him.

Paraphrasing but I remember having the impression he'd end up better than Angels Breath (turns it that isn't going to be as hard as we're once thought) but 50/1 is a dangler of a price.


Could be JLT I suppose too
Click to expand...

Of Henderson's I just thought he may be most likely for 2 mile, as all other novice hurdlers looked likely for further.
But Rathhill is a good shout/prospect for this also.

Said on another thread that the Nicholls novice chasers are of interest for me this year, Grand Sancy and Southfield Stone in particular.

Ive not had a good look at Mullins contenders yet though and his obviously have to be considered. Just which one or two is the problem. Duc des Geneivres would have been well down the list this time last year.

Unless Elliott's novices look good during the season I'm of a mind to ignore his over the speedier distances for now. Probably same for Tizzard also. But I'll be watching.
I'm inclined to ignore the Murphy horses for now also. Same reasoning and also unproven at the very top level just yet.

Nichols, Hendo & Mullins much more solid options for arkle types IMO, this far out in any case.

Mullins and Henderson won the last 8 between them ;). Including 2014 ;)
 
quevega said:
Nichols, Hendo & Mullins much more solid options for arkle types IMO, this far out in any case.

Mullins and Henderson won the last 8 between them ;). Including 2014 ;)
Click to expand...

This is where I usually end up tbh.

I had looked around the market which is why I enquired about Thomas Darby & Elixir De Nutz, but definitely feel the most likely winner will come from one of them 3 stables.
 
Only one I’ve backed at this point is Draconian at 40/1 but I plan to add Thomas Darby for any race if the price is right.
 
Native River said:
Will be keeping a close eye on Itchy Feet once again, really liked him last year and was on him very early and think he is still under the radar even after that Supreme with KD being so imposing. Draconien is obviously another one to keep an eye on, but I would like to know that he at least has 4 legs before I would start considering parting with cash :highly_amused:

For those stats fans one I always remember from GaultStats is that Nicky Henderson has had 8 runners in this with a hurdle rating 145+. 7 of those finished in the top 2, Angels Breath meets that, and Mister Fisher just misses out but as quevega says Nicky does do well with these types so well worth a watch!
Click to expand...

Worth noting Itchy Feet bled after the supreme after obvs a very tough race and whilst not disgraced at Aintree i'd be wanting to see him put up another half decent performance before wading in on that one.


Regarding Brewinupastorm i must be the only one who think he lacks that extra gear needed at 2m:confused: Trainer already stated after Aintree he won't run over further than 2m4f so i can see why a few are interested early doors, but i struggle to see him being g1 over 2miles personally for all that he travels well.
 
The arkle is nearly always won by horses who stay further so that wouldn’t put me off Brewin’Upastorm
 
What's people's thoughts on getaway trump for this race?
 
If fit would Elizir Di Nutz not be heading here ?
Showed promise last year and has G1 winning form...
 
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