Aintree 2025 Day 1

[UpInTrip]

I cannot see Impaire Et Passe beaten if he hes 100% sound, that flogas run just wasnt the true him

Completely agree. Probably one of my best bets of the 3 days. He's one of my cliff horses

[AaronLad]

I cannot see Impaire Et Passe beaten if he hes 100% sound, that flogas run just wasnt the true him

I'm pretty sure your ai will disagree with you, he's a big Gidleigh fan

[Faugheen_Machine]

I cannot see Impaire Et Passe beaten if he hes 100% sound, that flogas run just wasnt the true him

I'm with you, Zach. Can't be having the Brits beating IEP. He's just about my bet of the day.

[Zachx02]

I'm pretty sure your ai will disagree with you, he's a big Gidleigh fan

Haha it did pick him to win the lightning novice chase to be fair at windsor when he was outsider of the field, ill give it a spin later on all the races, it did alright at cheltenham and profited given it picked bob olinger out at 20/1 the night before racing

[Istabraq]

Not sure if Mr Hope Streets price is wrong, if that’s what you’re meaning.

Sorry I wasn’t clear; betting on something at 6pm where the price is wrong is what has cost me accounts, Mr Hope Street is not a wrong price I’m just programmed not to play because of the risk attached and as I now only have access to mates accs I am even more careful.
I’ll happily have a smash up 9/2, I can’t get 6/1 so what I never had I’ll never miss…

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm with you, Zach. Can't be having the Brits beating IEP. He's just about my bet of the day.

With the human anchor on garlic bread head be my bet of the day

Us all being so sweet on impaire makes me all but certain he won't win though being an enormous pessimist haha

[Benjy23]

Much rather back Croke Park than IEP personally. My big play for day 1. If it makes you feel any better

Live Conti and Spillane's Tower likely small plays as well.

[jrjr]

I’m in the IEP fan club and have backed him for the Ryanair but am wary of Croke Park. Hoping for a WTAF price on him, especially as Hills are top price (40/1) on him for the Ryanair. Not seen any up yet but pretty sure they offered some for Aintree last year.

[AaronLad]

I'm laughing out loud at nobody giving Gidleigh a chance

[Benjy23]

It's best not to be so emotional about these things.

Of course he's got a chance. He's a general 9/2 shot.

[YoungHustler]

I'm laughing out loud at nobody giving Gidleigh a chance

I give him a massive chance and he would be my bet if I were to have one in that race. Will leave the race alone and enjoy watching as think the top 4 all have good chances.

Only bet on day 1 for me will be Wendrock EW with Betfred 4 places 9/1. He got hampered at a crucial stage lto and finished well so this slightly longer trip will help imo.

Interesting thoughts from pro punter Mark Hklder regarding the need to stay over hurdles.

'Take the two-mile hurdle races at Aintree, for example. There are two different starting points, meaning races are either run over two miles and 103 yards or two miles and 209 yards. The shorter trip takes around four minutes, while the longer version adds around ten seconds. Compare that to Cheltenham, where on the Old course races over the same distance take around 3min 55sec on good to soft ground and on the New course they take closer to 4min 5sec. So, time-wise, Cheltenham is less of a test.

Ultimately, race pace is all about perception. On so-called staying tracks, races are often run at a slower tempo than on supposedly sharper, easier courses. Ironically, this can mean more stamina is required on tracks perceived to be less of a test.'

[AaronLad]

It's best not to be so emotional about these things.

Of course he's got a chance. He's a general 9/2 shot.

But he should be odds on
iep and croke park got pumped by ballyburn.
ballyburn got pumped at cheltenham.

Gidleigh park is on another level.

[AaronLad]

I give him a massive chance and he would be my bet if I were to have one in that race. Will leave the race alone and enjoy watching as think the top 4 all have good chances.

Only bet on day 1 for me will be Wendrock EW with Betfred 4 places 9/1. He got hampered at a crucial stage lto and finished well so this slightly longer trip will help imo.

Interesting thoughts from pro punter Mark Hklder regarding the need to stay over hurdles.

'Take the two-mile hurdle races at Aintree, for example. There are two different starting points, meaning races are either run over two miles and 103 yards or two miles and 209 yards. The shorter trip takes around four minutes, while the longer version adds around ten seconds. Compare that to Cheltenham, where on the Old course races over the same distance take around 3min 55sec on good to soft ground and on the New course they take closer to 4min 5sec. So, time-wise, Cheltenham is less of a test.

Ultimately, race pace is all about perception. On so-called staying tracks, races are often run at a slower tempo than on supposedly sharper, easier courses. Ironically, this can mean more stamina is required on tracks perceived to be less of a test.'

Interesting.

Not sure I'd completely agree with what he says but can understand.

For example running uphill for 100m is a lot more demanding than running on the flat for 100m.
But downhill is easier than a flat 100m. Obvious I know

So if you have more downhill sections than uphill it would be quicker for the most part but it's the uphill parts when you're knackered that really sort the proper ones out.

[Quevega]

Interesting.

Not sure I'd completely agree with what he says but can understand.

For example running uphill for 100m is a lot more demanding than running on the flat for 100m.
But downhill is easier than a flat 100m. Obvious I know

So if you have more downhill sections than uphill it would be quicker for the most part but it's the uphill parts when you're knackered that really sort the proper ones out.

The timings he has given are fact though, and the time taken to complete any course on average with a large sample size is surely an accurate reflection of the overall test, no matter how the uphill and downhill sections, or gradients compare.

I posted something on the forum a couple of years ago on the same subject and most ignored it, as you still get trainers like Henderson saying that aintree is a sharper, quicker "flat" track, than Cheltenham. And most punters still hang on trainers words and them trotting out tired old tropes, without any nuance.

It's not and that's a fact.

It might be flatter overall, and the turns more sharper, but to run the course takes longer so this means there is likely more of a rise in the ground than the opposite. Or Cheltenham's downhill sections help that make it quicker overall. Probably a bit of both.

The only thing I would concede about horses handling Aintree is maybe the sharper left handed bends at both ends of the mildmay course, and maybe being nippy and agile around those helps some more nimble types, but even then the straight is plenty long enough and will suit strong gallopers/travellers.

The issue as always is down to the jockey fractions (aside from the obvious horse ability), if they judge the fractions from the front end, on a quick/nimble horse right and get to the last left hand bend before the straight, then they have a head start on the rest and if they've saved enough and not gone too hard then they can kick on, and be hard to peg back, but you'll also see travelly types looming up sometimes and also gallopers off the bridle wearing the front runners down up the straight

I don't favour any types here, as there is no consistent types really, and is more often down to the pace of the race, much like any other track really.

Strong Leader is a good example IMO, he looks slow on most tracks but manages to run well here.
Ahoy Senor another.

[Bluefox21]

….backing Peter Bowen’s (and Micky Bowen) horses blind at Aintree has proved me well over many years but Queen Kate’s debut Bumper win at Doncaster last month is worth a watch. In behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go entering the final furlong, she was switched wide and still won with a bit in hand.

Firms tend not to take chances with Bowen at Aintree but I’ll be waiting patiently for Queen Kate to be priced up now she’s confirmed.

at 50s I'll join you on that. Horses in behind her look fairly average but you can only beat what's in front of you!