Cheltenham November Meeting

[charlie]

Few early fancies

Saturday 1.45 - From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase - Weveallbeencaught @ 9/1

Sam chose WABC vs Flooring Porter and it looked like he needed the run IMO. NTD loves WABC and has likened him to Imperial Commander. Not suggesting thats what he'll become for one second, but I thought his chase debut went under the radar with all eyes on FP. He went about his business professionally and ran with real credit. To me the market looks a mess. Good Risk At All and Mister Coffey are joint favourites but the former has question marks to answer re 3m and the latter is a complete pig. Trelawne is interesting for Kim Bailey but I don't like backing horses that have never been been to Cheltenham. Broadway Boy is a good horse that had race fitness on his side LTO but I'd expect Sam to choose WABC and for that price to collapse. I love Sam Twiston Davies around Cheltenham, he rides the course so well and gets the absolute max out of his rides. Hills opened WABC @ 7/2 which I thought looked fair vs that lot so when I saw 9/1 with Sky and Betfair it was a must take.

Saturday 2.20 - Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase - Notlongtillmay (NLTM) @ 15/2

Clear to see why SS and TRW head the market, but it will be tough to win this lumping around big weights off no prep and I think bigger days await those two. Lots of Pauls have needed the run and TRW was beaten out of sight on debut last year so that would be in the back of my mind if taking a single figure price. Unexpected Party is taking all the money at the moment due to lots of press coverage but I wouldn't back him at that price. KH has obviously advertised that Cheptow form well but by Pauls own admission KH wasn't fit that day. I love NLTM for this. Ran a blinder in the Turners (accounting for Unexpected Party) and ran a cracker on debut last month over a trip too short. I (stupidly) backed him that day and it looked all over like he was going to finish 10L+ back after they jump the 3rd last but he just gets outpaced before finding and finding, running to a debut RPR of 156 which is better than anything he's ever achieved before. I think he'll be really hard to beat off 11-4 with race fitness on his side back over his optimum trip. If you look through the roll of honour in this race you'll of course see Nicholls winners and big weight carrying performances, but you often see smaller trainers causing upsets and horses lumping big weights underwhelming. I think Laura Morgan will get her day in the sun on Saturday.

[Madmoose]

Good writeups especially the first one, hope you win. Do you think Nigel will declare both again?

Hopefully you’re right about NLTM for the PP as i got on him at 14/1 last week and everything looks set for a big run after that prep run over shorter.

I just got on JPR One at 11/2 this morning for the Arkle trial on the Friday with the race looking a potential 4 runner or so, some firms cut to 5/2 10 mins after i backed this morning so hopefully he can do the business.

[jack1092]

Like the WABC pick especially.

In the Arkle trial i think Petit Tonnerre is a smidgeon of value. Jonjo mentioned this race in last nights stable tour + on the Ascot hurdle run he looks a danger to the 3/1 Homme Public. That day he gave him 8pds + a 5 1/2l beating. 10/1 v 3/1. If Skeltons don't run + this cuts up he should be much shorter. Alright it's a JP horse + it's his chase debut so there are obvious risks attached. Mighty Tom at the head of a race like this is crazy, but it sums up the level we are playing here.
I've seen a few playing JPR One + they've got a handy price now to show for it.

The other i've my eye on is in the first on Friday, Fathom Two from Cromwell, won this last year + i was at DPK that day we all said he'd have won with extra distance, he's a boat, 2m5 will bring about progression. Bukhill didn't back it up here in October, but he was getting a stone or so. He might open a tad shorter than i'd like given it's Cromwell but i'll be watching.

[charlie]

Like the WABC pick especially.

In the Arkle trial i think Petit Tonnerre is a smidgeon of value. Jonjo mentioned this race in last nights stable tour + on the Ascot hurdle run he looks a danger to the 3/1 Homme Public. That day he gave him 8pds + a 5 1/2l beating. 10/1 v 3/1. If Skeltons don't run + this cuts up he should be much shorter. Alright it's a JP horse + it's his chase debut so there are obvious risks attached. Mighty Tom at the head of a race like this is crazy, but it sums up the level we are playing here.
I've seen a few playing JPR One + they've got a handy price now to show for it.

The other i've my eye on is in the first on Friday, Fathom Two from Cromwell, won this last year + i was at DPK that day we all said he'd have won with extra distance, he's a boat, 2m5 will bring about progression. Bukhill didn't back it up here in October, but he was getting a stone or so. He might open a tad shorter than i'd like given it's Cromwell but i'll be watching.

Cheers pal - the market has done exactly what I thought it would do with the top 2 now red and WABC now 6/1, blue and shortening all the time.

Great shout with Petit Tonnerre - I looked at him and took 8/1 and he's now 5's.

[Lobos]

Really fancy Fugitif in the big one especially with all this rain about. Really heavy downpours for some while today and Saturday is not great. His record at Cheltenham is superb and he'll enjoy Soft conditions. He travels so well and jumps great but his run needs to be timed to perfection.

Stage Star and The Real Whacker only know how to race one way and they'll make it a real test. Could cut their own throats and be vulnerable to a hold up horse especially with the weight they have to carry.

Unexpected Party interests me as well but he might just lack experience in what will be a brutal race.

[Captain Chris]

Will have another go round it, but Unexpected Party and Angels Breath are the standouts to me. Sit nicely in the 139-149 range so will carry under 11 stone, both have reasonable Cheltenham experience and have had a good prep. My slight worry with unexpected party is that they had him fighting fit last time so he might not be able to improve again, but we'll see.

Love the We'veallbeencaught shout and would have piled in at 9s. Missed the boat now I feel but good luck

[opatcho]

Already backed Harpers Brook (25/1 and 22's on BEX)

I have a huge note from previous years saying "Dont back horses first time out" but I keep on coming back to this horse
With Stage Star and The Real Whacker in here, you need a horse that will be able to go with the pass whilst having some sort of weight advantage.

Harpers Brook travelled and jumped well in the Dipper, but didnt have the legs to keep with them. He gets 28lbs off The Real Whacker on Saturday! I keep asking himself, if Harpers was giving 28lbs in the Dipper, do I think he would have got closer to The Whacker... I have to say huge yes.

I took a look at his run in the Ultima, which is working out to be a hot handicap. He took them around, jumped well but blew up at the 20 - 21 furlong marker. He set up that race, a lot of horses where trailed off.
That was a huge run, and I know there's a huge concern about him after his Sandown antics, but if I can forgive Stage Star being off at aintree, I can forgive this fella for blowing up or idling in his final race of the season.

I think you'll need something that can go with the pace, so some form at champion pace, whilst having a reason to be ahead of the handicap. I think this fella is ahead of the handicapper. And I dont think the trainer, who has won some big handicappers with the likes of Global Citizen, wont go wasting this mark. Hope to see the cheekpieces back on!!!

Plan to back him again the BEX, and the trade him out, I think he will out run his odds

Unexpected Party hits all of my trends, but a little concerned. Dan has said this horse is inbetween trips - 2 mile over soft, middle distance on better. They arent going to mess about here, and with the softer going, I'm a little concerned he could go for the 2 miler instead if the rain comes

“He can have an entry in the Paddy Power after that, he could also have an entry in the two-mile Grade Two novice chase at Cheltenham at the same meeting if the ground is a bit slower, and he can also be considered for the Rising Stars at Wincanton the week before.”

He was always coming here and we've trained him specifically for it. That's a good start to the season. He'll have an entry in the Paddy Power as well as the Grade 2 over two miles in case it was really soft.

[Lobos]

Il Ridoto is the one for money today which I find surprising. Wouldn't be in my top 5.

[opatcho]

Decent claimer on board, made me take another look but yeah… not for me this time around

[HoldenTheReins]

4 in the Arkle trial, piss poor that but come on JPR One.

[ComplyOrDie]

Takarengo 22/1 E/W in the first race on the Friday.

Thoroughly exposed type, but he's a bit of a cliff horse for me. Hoping he can put his best hoof forward on Friday. Come over for the Pertemps and ran off 124, down 4lbs for tomorrow and also down 2f, which I'm hoping will suit too. Has a decent conditional on too, which is always a bonus for these type of races.

[Bonjers]

STD is jocked up on Good Risk At All with Skelton on Weveallbeencaught,

[charlie]

STD is jocked up on Good Risk At All with Skelton on Weveallbeencaught,

ffs exactly what I didn't want to see. either way we've had it right off on the price but I'm disappointed as STD is mustard around cheltenham

on the plus side no Trelawne

[Can't Catch Me]

STD is jocked up on Good Risk At All with Skelton on Weveallbeencaught,

Has to be a very positive sign for this horse over NTD's pair

[Benjy23]

Reckon I'd prefer Skelton to STD anywhere like. But I guess not great to see you've got second string.

PP GC looks a good contest. Notlingtillmay and Stage Star shouldn't finish too far away from each other. Love the Real Whacker after last year's BANC winnings but be doing well here off 12st first time out. Think I'll play a RFC on the Stage Star and Notlingtillmay for a bit of interest but just looks a good race to watch to be honest.

Interested to see how Burdett Road gets on in the juvenile on Saturday. Not the route to recent Triumph hurdle winners like but he was very highly rated on the flat over here.

Not too much for Friday but couple of small plays.

I reckon Galvin could give Delta Work a race. James not bad for his 7lb and Galvin's normally good to catch first time out. Surprised they're not closer in the market than they are.

And going to chance Do Your Job in the 2m handicap chase. Had some decent enough 2m efforts in his Novice days and been looking like he's not getting him over further lately, so the drop in trip is interesting. Also capable of a mistake mind.

Captain Teague is almost getting to a backable price. Might stick in some accas.