Cheltenham November Meeting

[opatcho]

Every year I go against my trends and notes, and once again, I'm going against them

Stage Star for me. He was on the top of my list 3-4 weeks ago, spent 4-5 hours since then on this race, going through everything else 3-4 times.... and I've come back to this fella

I'm not overly worried about The Real Whacker, not as much as I initially thought, he has bigger targets later in the season and I dont think he's as quick as I thought he was. He's a quick 3 miler. He isnt a quick 2 and a half miler on the old course. This track and trip is suited to a Turners horse, over a BANC horse. Question is... was that Turners any good.

Personally, I think Stage Star is very good, and ran what was a great Turners performance.

How much more can NotLongTillMay improve? I looked back at his 'prep' run last month and he was whipped a few times, so questioning whether that was his running.
Typical Nichols second season chaser, I'd expect Stage Star to improve. Question will be, can he break the first time out trend. A few have come close but never one that will run from the front.

We'll see. I could be screwing when a horse like unexpected party or notlong wins, after already having a run this season

..... damn race



Update 12:45
________________________________________________

I've had another look and this is my bets for the PPGC

1) The Turners horse. Stage Star (Double up with the Ryanair)
2) The "been there, done that, handicapper thats still well weighted based on prior performances and age, soft will suit". Il Ridoto (12/1)
3) The outsider Harpers Brook (Antepost at 25ish)

[FinalFurlong91]

The triumph trial has an outsider winning written all over it

Milan Tino looked too slow for 2m2f in both his french runs. Even if the ground gets very soft i wouldnt want to be backing him going back to 2 miles.

Burdett Road is a hard pulling lunatic and his best runs on the flat all came on good to firm ground

Soft ground on an undulating track would be a worry

I'm not saying back all the outsiders but I'm contemplating it

If the rain has missed the track and it's still decent ground I might have a few quid on burdett road. Or il back him after a furlong or two if he's not doing a Jupiter du gite as he's simply a way faster horse than Milan tino.

[Lobos]

Agree FF. Backing third fav might be the answer.

[Brooksie]

Came to the same conclusion in the first and took a chance with the other french horse Seraphic at 80/1. Looking at the place angle more than anything though.

Backed Springwell Bay earlier in the week at a decent price prior to the decs based on jonjo confirming him for this in his stable tour.

Paddy Power I've just opted to go with the Gerri form, backed The Real Wacker and also played Authorised Art EW, he finished 6 lengths behind Gerri as a novice, if Danny gets a good spin at the weights with TRW has a good chance of placing.

Away from Cheltenham I have my eye on Inedit Star at Wetherby, he had a Cheltenham entry tomorrow but they've opted to stay up North. Think they'll have a decent season with him this term. Only backed Zanahiyr at Navan, amazed he's still only 6 feel like he's around forever! Can't have Bob, but if they did get him back it would be great to see. Will just be watching Dysart Dynamo and the Facile Vega race.

Great racing today, good luck everyone!

[nortonscoin200]

Came to the same conclusion in the first and took a chance with the other french horse Seraphic at 80/1. Looking at the place angle more than anything though.

Backed Springwell Bay earlier in the week at a decent price prior to the decs based on jonjo confirming him for this in his stable tour.

Paddy Power I've just opted to go with the Gerri form, backed The Real Wacker and also played Authorised Art EW, he finished 6 lengths behind Gerri as a novice, if Danny gets a good spin at the weights with TRW has a good chance of placing.

Away from Cheltenham I have my eye on Inedit Star at Wetherby, he had a Cheltenham entry tomorrow but they've opted to stay up North. Think they'll have a decent season with him this term. Only backed Zanahiyr at Navan, amazed he's still only 6 feel like he's around forever! Can't have Bob, but if they did get him back it would be great to see. Will just be watching Dysart Dynamo and the Facile Vega race.

Great racing today, good luck everyone!

With you on Authorised Art each way ( 5places) at 28-1 Brooksie - my only bet of the day.

[Benjy23]

PP GC looks a good contest. Notlingtillmay and Stage Star shouldn't finish too far away from each other. Love the Real Whacker after last year's BANC winnings but be doing well here off 12st first time out. Think I'll play a RFC on the Stage Star and Notlingtillmay for a bit of interest but just looks a good race to watch to be honest.

Interested to see how Burdett Road gets on in the juvenile on Saturday. Not the route to recent Triumph hurdle winners like but he was very highly rated on the flat over here.

.

Relying on forecasts to return a profit. Desperate times

[DenmanSacre]

As ever at Cheltenham when the ground is soft, it pays to be near the front.

2/1 a piece between Tellherthename and The Kemble Brewery, who will both be prominent in the first. Tellherthename would be favourite for me but The Kemble Brewery has the Cheltenham experience. Rest of the field shouldn't be up to their level. Straight forecast Tellherthename / The Kemble Brewery.

Cloudy Glen in the 3rd - will lead this lot and Venetia's chasers in great form (8 won from last 18 with 5 also placing). Good record fresh and on a winnable mark.

[charlie]

Punctuation looks like a great EW bet to me @ 14/1 in the big one today. Lovely profile IMO. Had a winning prep run on the flat so we know he's fit and they sorted his wind out. His form since joining FOB reads 1111(4PU)11. His only disappointments came either side of wind surgery when he was 4th (at 100/30F at Cheltenham) and PU in the Imperial Cup where he suffered interference. Can happily forgive those and he's won two on the bounce since. If you dig through his form there is plenty to suggest he's well treated off 137. Last seen over hurdles at Aintree beating Blueking D'oroux easily who is now rated 138 following his win at Cheltenham. His run beating Too Friendly at Cheltenham was eye catching as he went away from him powerfully in the closing stages and Too Friendly is rated 140, so he could easily have 5lbs + in hand. He has an action that suits soft ground which he is 4 from 4 on and I think ground suitability, course form and race fitness add up to a great each way bet at 14/1 with B365.

[Benjy23]

Going to keep the faith with Luccia. Expected her to be much better than a 136 rating and still lightly raced enough to put that right. Hopefully come on from what wasn't a terrible reappearance. Race could suit as well, as she's a strong travelling type. Just got to see it out a bit better...

[Dilinja]

Going to keep the faith with Luccia. Expected her to be much better than a 136 rating and still lightly raced enough to put that right. Hopefully come on from what wasn't a terrible reappearance. Race could suit as well, as she's a strong travelling type. Just got to see it out a bit better...

yep with her too. Hopefully plenty of pace on. Like Henderson’s other one too. Could be a good day for Nicky with City Chief and Jonbon.

[Liammet]

The 11/4 for the Pauling and Bailey horse to finish in first 2 in any order in the first at Cheltenham looks good to me with PP
they look a class above the others

[Eggs]

The 11/4 for the Pauling and Bailey horse to finish in first 2 in any order in the first at Cheltenham looks good to me with PP
they look a class above the others

….I’m seeing 11/4 Kemble Brewery and Tellherthename to finish 1-2 in that order.

[Brooksie]

I'm with you guys, backing Luccia, big fan of the mares novice hurdle form last season, think its the best form on offer going into the greatwood.

Few nice races to watch today, but no real strong opinions so just the one bet for me. Expect Jonbon to do the business, Captain Guinness franking his form yesterday was encouraging.

Good luck

[opatcho]

Backing Afadil (27s on BEX)

Been in my tracker since Nichols said he'd run in the Greatwood, but he will definitively will need a run - which he did on October's meet

Cobden on board

Ran in Boodies

Beaten by 2 lengths by Blueking D'Oroux, who ran a huge race against Punctuation who comes here a 137 horse, and is a horse I actually like today. I also like Kickerbockerglory, who will set the pace today, carried penatly for win lto.

Dont mind chasing him at the price

[opatcho]

Nichols mentioning there ground may be a bit soft for Afadil ... hmmm, will reign in my stake